Sequential anomaly detection in the presence of noise and limited feedback

This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: (1) {\em filtering}, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations, and (2) {\em hedging}, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset.Comment: 19 pages, 12 pdf figures; final version to be published in IEEE Transactions on Information Theor

Unconstrained Online Linear Learning in Hilbert Spaces: Minimax Algorithms and Normal Approximations

We study algorithms for online linear optimization in Hilbert spaces, focusing on the case where the player is unconstrained. We develop a novel characterization of a large class of minimax algorithms, recovering, and even improving, several previous results as immediate corollaries. Moreover, using our tools, we develop an algorithm that provides a regret bound of $\mathcal{O}\Big(U \sqrt{T \log(U \sqrt{T} \log^2 T +1)}\Big)$, where $U$ is the $L_2$ norm of an arbitrary comparator and both $T$ and $U$ are unknown to the player. This bound is optimal up to $\sqrt{\log \log T}$ terms. When $T$ is known, we derive an algorithm with an optimal regret bound (up to constant factors). For both the known and unknown $T$ case, a Normal approximation to the conditional value of the game proves to be the key analysis tool.Comment: Proceedings of the 27th Annual Conference on Learning Theory (COLT 2014

Second-order Quantile Methods for Experts and Combinatorial Games

We aim to design strategies for sequential decision making that adjust to the difficulty of the learning problem. We study this question both in the setting of prediction with expert advice, and for more general combinatorial decision tasks. We are not satisfied with just guaranteeing minimax regret rates, but we want our algorithms to perform significantly better on easy data. Two popular ways to formalize such adaptivity are second-order regret bounds and quantile bounds. The underlying notions of 'easy data', which may be paraphrased as "the learning problem has small variance" and "multiple decisions are useful", are synergetic. But even though there are sophisticated algorithms that exploit one of the two, no existing algorithm is able to adapt to both. In this paper we outline a new method for obtaining such adaptive algorithms, based on a potential function that aggregates a range of learning rates (which are essential tuning parameters). By choosing the right prior we construct efficient algorithms and show that they reap both benefits by proving the first bounds that are both second-order and incorporate quantiles

Game Theory Models for the Verification of the Collective Behaviour of Autonomous Cars

The collective of autonomous cars is expected to generate almost optimal traffic. In this position paper we discuss the multi-agent models and the verification results of the collective behaviour of autonomous cars. We argue that non-cooperative autonomous adaptation cannot guarantee optimal behaviour. The conjecture is that intention aware adaptation with a constraint on simultaneous decision making has the potential to avoid unwanted behaviour. The online routing game model is expected to be the basis to formally prove this conjecture.Comment: In Proceedings FVAV 2017, arXiv:1709.0212

Adaptation to Easy Data in Prediction with Limited Advice

We derive an online learning algorithm with improved regret guarantees for `easy' loss sequences. We consider two types of `easiness': (a) stochastic loss sequences and (b) adversarial loss sequences with small effective range of the losses. While a number of algorithms have been proposed for exploiting small effective range in the full information setting, Gerchinovitz and Lattimore [2016] have shown the impossibility of regret scaling with the effective range of the losses in the bandit setting. We show that just one additional observation per round is sufficient to circumvent the impossibility result. The proposed Second Order Difference Adjustments (SODA) algorithm requires no prior knowledge of the effective range of the losses, $\varepsilon$, and achieves an $O(\varepsilon \sqrt{KT \ln K}) + \tilde{O}(\varepsilon K \sqrt[4]{T})$ expected regret guarantee, where $T$ is the time horizon and $K$ is the number of actions. The scaling with the effective loss range is achieved under significantly weaker assumptions than those made by Cesa-Bianchi and Shamir [2018] in an earlier attempt to circumvent the impossibility result. We also provide a regret lower bound of $\Omega(\varepsilon\sqrt{T K})$, which almost matches the upper bound. In addition, we show that in the stochastic setting SODA achieves an $O\left(\sum_{a:\Delta_a>0} \frac{K^3 \varepsilon^2}{\Delta_a}\right)$ pseudo-regret bound that holds simultaneously with the adversarial regret guarantee. In other words, SODA is safe against an unrestricted oblivious adversary and provides improved regret guarantees for at least two different types of `easiness' simultaneously.Comment: Fixed a mistake in the proof and statement of Theorem

Minimax Policies for Combinatorial Prediction Games

We address the online linear optimization problem when the actions of the forecaster are represented by binary vectors. Our goal is to understand the magnitude of the minimax regret for the worst possible set of actions. We study the problem under three different assumptions for the feedback: full information, and the partial information models of the so-called "semi-bandit", and "bandit" problems. We consider both $L_\infty$-, and $L_2$-type of restrictions for the losses assigned by the adversary. We formulate a general strategy using Bregman projections on top of a potential-based gradient descent, which generalizes the ones studied in the series of papers Gyorgy et al. (2007), Dani et al. (2008), Abernethy et al. (2008), Cesa-Bianchi and Lugosi (2009), Helmbold and Warmuth (2009), Koolen et al. (2010), Uchiya et al. (2010), Kale et al. (2010) and Audibert and Bubeck (2010). We provide simple proofs that recover most of the previous results. We propose new upper bounds for the semi-bandit game. Moreover we derive lower bounds for all three feedback assumptions. With the only exception of the bandit game, the upper and lower bounds are tight, up to a constant factor. Finally, we answer a question asked by Koolen et al. (2010) by showing that the exponentially weighted average forecaster is suboptimal against $L_{\infty}$ adversaries