Representation of homothetic forward performance processes in stochastic factor models via ergodic and infinite horizon BSDE

In an incomplete market, with incompleteness stemming from stochastic factors imperfectly correlated with the underlying stocks, we derive representations of homothetic (power, exponential and logarithmic) forward performance processes in factor-form using ergodic BSDE. We also develop a connection between the forward processes and infinite horizon BSDE, and, moreover, with risk-sensitive optimization. In addition, we develop a connection, for large time horizons, with a family of classical homothetic value function processes with random endowments.Comment: 34 page

Asymptotic analysis of forward performance processes in incomplete markets and their ill-posed HJB equations

We consider the problem of optimal portfolio selection under forward investment performance criteria in an incomplete market. The dynamics of the prices of the traded assets depend on a pair of stochastic factors, namely, a slow factor (e.g. a macroeconomic indicator) and a fast factor (e.g. stochastic volatility). We analyze the associated forward performance SPDE and provide explicit formulae for the leading order and first order correction terms for the forward investment process and the optimal feedback portfolios. They both depend on the investor's initial preferences and the dynamically changing investment opportunities. The leading order terms resemble their time-monotone counterparts, but with the appropriate stochastic time changes resulting from averaging phenomena. The first-order terms compile the reaction of the investor to both the changes in the market input and his recent performance. Our analysis is based on an expansion of the underlying ill-posed HJB equation, and it is justified by means of an appropriate remainder estimate.Comment: 26 page

Time--consistent investment under model uncertainty: the robust forward criteria

We combine forward investment performance processes and ambiguity averse portfolio selection. We introduce the notion of robust forward criteria which addresses the issues of ambiguity in model specification and in preferences and investment horizon specification. It describes the evolution of time-consistent ambiguity averse preferences. We first focus on establishing dual characterizations of the robust forward criteria. This offers various advantages as the dual problem amounts to a search for an infimum whereas the primal problem features a saddle-point. Our approach is based on ideas developed in Schied (2007) and Zitkovic (2009). We then study in detail non-volatile criteria. In particular, we solve explicitly the example of an investor who starts with a logarithmic utility and applies a quadratic penalty function. The investor builds a dynamical estimate of the market price of risk $\hat \lambda$ and updates her stochastic utility in accordance with the so-perceived elapsed market opportunities. We show that this leads to a time-consistent optimal investment policy given by a fractional Kelly strategy associated with $\hat \lambda$. The leverage is proportional to the investor's confidence in her estimate $\hat \lambda$

An Exact Connection between two Solvable SDEs and a Nonlinear Utility Stochastic PDE

Motivated by the work of Musiela and Zariphopoulou \cite{zar-03}, we study the It\^o random fields which are utility functions $U(t,x)$ for any $(\omega,t)$. The main tool is the marginal utility $U_x(t,x)$ and its inverse expressed as the opposite of the derivative of the Fenchel conjuguate \tU(t,y). Under regularity assumptions, we associate a $SDE(\mu, \sigma)$ and its adjoint SPDE$(\mu, \sigma)$ in divergence form whose $U_x(t,x)$ and its inverse -\tU_y(t,y) are monotonic solutions. More generally, special attention is paid to rigorous justification of the dynamics of inverse flow of SDE. So that, we are able to extend to the solution of similar SPDEs the decomposition based on the solutions of two SDEs and their inverses. The second part is concerned with forward utilities, consistent with a given incomplete financial market, that can be observed but given exogenously to the investor. As in \cite{zar-03}, market dynamics are considered in an equilibrium state, so that the investor becomes indifferent to any action she can take in such a market. After having made explicit the constraints induced on the local characteristics of consistent utility and its conjugate, we focus on the marginal utility SPDE by showing that it belongs to the previous family of SPDEs. The associated two SDE's are related to the optimal wealth and the optimal state price density, given a pathwise explicit representation of the marginal utility. This new approach addresses several issues with a new perspective: dynamic programming principle, risk tolerance properties, inverse problems. Some examples and applications are given in the last section

Dynamic Preferences for Popular Investment Strategies in Pension Funds

Abstract In this paper, we infer preferences that are consistent with some given dynamic investment strategies. Two popular dynamic strategies in the pension funds industry are considered: a constant proportion portfolio insurance (CPPI) strategy and a life-cycle strategy. In both cases, we are able to infer preferences of the pension fund's manager from her investment strategy, and to exhibit the specific expected utility maximization that makes this strategy optimal at any given time horizon. For example, we show that, in a Black-Scholes market, a CPPI strategy is optimal for a fund manager with HARA utility function, while an investor with a SAHARA utility function (introduced b

Forward Performance Measurement with Applications in Indifference Valuation

In this thesis, we present basic ideas and key results for forward performance measurement. Besides, we provide an explicit construction of the optimal processes of a class of time-monotone forward performance processes. Moreover, starting with a two parameter family risk tolerance function, we construct a class of forward performance processes. By letting the parameter go to zero, we obtain the forward exponential utility. Finally, using the forward exponential utility, we solve the integrated portfolio management problem by the so-called utility-based approach and compare it with its classical backward indifference counterpart