Heterogeneity in pure microbial systems: experimental measurements and modeling

Cellular heterogeneity influences bioprocess performance in ways that until date are not completely elucidated. In order to account for this phenomenon in the design and operation of bioprocesses, reliable analytical and mathematical descriptions are required. We present an overview of the single cell analysis, and the mathematical modeling frameworks that have potential to be used in bioprocess control and optimization, in particular for microbial processes. In order to be suitable for bioprocess monitoring, experimental methods need to be high throughput and to require relatively short processing time. One such method used successfully under dynamic conditions is flow cytometry. Population balance and individual based models are suitable modeling options, the latter one having in particular a good potential to integrate the various data collected through experimentation. This will be highly beneficial for appropriate process design and scale up as a more rigorous approach may prevent a priori unwanted performance losses. It will also help progressing synthetic biology applications to industrial scale

Stochastic Forecasts of the Social Security Trust Fund

We present stochastic forecasts of the Social Security trust fund by modeling key demographic and economic variables as historical time series, and using the fitted models to generate computer simulations of future fund performance. We evaluate several plans for achieving long-term solvency by raising the normal retirement age (NRA), increasing taxes, or investing some portion of the fund in the stock market. Stochastic population trajectories by age and sex are generated using the Lee-Carter and Lee- Tuljapurkar mortality and fertility models. Interest rates, wage growth and equities returns are modeled as vector autoregressive processes. With the exception of mortality, central tendencies are constrained to the Intermediate assumptions of the 2002 Trustees Report. Combining population forecasts with forecasted per-capita tax and benefit profiles by age and sex, we obtain inflows to and outflows from the fund over time, resulting in stochastic fund trajectories and distributions. Under current legislation, we estimate the chance of insolvency by 2038 to be 50%, although the expected fund balance stays positive until 2041. An immediate 2% increase in the payroll tax rate from 12.4% to 14.4% sustains a positive expected fund balance until 2078, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2064. Investing 60% of the fund in the S&P 500 by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2060, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2042. An increase in the NRA to age 69 by 2024 keeps the expected fund balance positive until 2047, with a 50% chance of solvency through 2041. A combination of raising the payroll tax to 13.4%, increasing the NRA to 69 by 2024, and investing 25% of the fund in equities by 2015 keeps the expected fund balance positive past 2101 with a 50% chance of solvency through 2077.

Event-specific chorus wave and electron seed population models in DREAM3D using the Van Allen Probes

Abstract The DREAM3D diffusion model is applied to Van Allen Probes observations of the fast dropout and strong enhancement of MeV electrons during the October 2012 double-dip storm. We show that in order to explain the very different behavior in the two dips, diffusion in all three dimensions (energy, pitch angle, and Lo) coupled with data-driven, event-specific inputs, and boundary conditions is required. Specifically, we find that outward radial diffusion to the solar wind-driven magnetopause, an event-specific chorus wave model, and a dynamic lower-energy seed population are critical for modeling the dynamics. In contrast, models that include only a subset of processes, use statistical wave amplitudes, or rely on inward radial diffusion of a seed population, perform poorly. The results illustrate the utility of the high resolution, comprehensive set of Van Allen Probes\u27 measurements in studying the balance between source and loss in the radiation belt, a principal goal of the mission. Key Points DREAM3D uses event-specific driving conditions measured by Van Allen Probes Electron dropout is due to outward radial diffusion to compressed magnetopause Event-specific chorus and seed electrons are necessary for the enhancement

Simulation on long-term correlation between demographic variables and economic growth

Starting from existing literature and recent years studies, several modeling schemes have been developed, which may prove useful to substantiate strategies aimed at achieving a demographic and economic balance between generations. This way, we can obtain simulations from a country or group of countries (European Union, for example) on long and very long term, and then quantify the impact of demographic aging on macroeconomic aggregates, taking into consideration, as a rule, that models are standard macroeconomic models generally balanced on short and medium term, when the population appears as exogenous variable.demographic aging; long-term simulations; loop cybernetics; demoeconomic model; overlapping generation model

Augmenting Biogas Process Modeling by Resolving Intracellular Metabolic Activity

The process of anaerobic digestion in which waste biomass is transformed to methane by complex microbial communities has been modeled for more than 16 years by parametric gray box approaches that simplify process biology and do not resolve intracellular microbial activity. Information on such activity, however, has become available in unprecedented detail by recent experimental advances in metatranscriptomics and metaproteomics. The inclusion of such data could lead to more powerful process models of anaerobic digestion that more faithfully represent the activity of microbial communities. We augmented the Anaerobic Digestion Model No. 1 (ADM1) as the standard kinetic model of anaerobic digestion by coupling it to Flux-Balance-Analysis (FBA) models of methanogenic species. Steady-state results of coupled models are comparable to standard ADM1 simulations if the energy demand for non-growth associated maintenance (NGAM) is chosen adequately. When changing a constant feed of maize silage from continuous to pulsed feeding, the final average methane production remains very similar for both standard and coupled models, while both the initial response of the methanogenic population at the onset of pulsed feeding as well as its dynamics between pulses deviates considerably. In contrast to ADM1, the coupled models deliver predictions of up to 1,000s of intracellular metabolic fluxes per species, describing intracellular metabolic pathway activity in much higher detail. Furthermore, yield coefficients which need to be specified in ADM1 are no longer required as they are implicitly encoded in the topology of the species’ metabolic network. We show the feasibility of augmenting ADM1, an ordinary differential equation-based model for simulating biogas production, by FBA models implementing individual steps of anaerobic digestion. While cellular maintenance is introduced as a new parameter, the total number of parameters is reduced as yield coefficients no longer need to be specified. The coupled models provide detailed predictions on intracellular activity of microbial species which are compatible with experimental data on enzyme synthesis activity or abundance as obtained by metatranscriptomics or metaproteomics. By providing predictions of intracellular fluxes of individual community members, the presented approach advances the simulation of microbial community driven processes and provides a direct link to validation by state-of-the-art experimental techniques

Multi-impurity adsorption model for modeling crystal purity and shape evolution during crystallization processes in impure media

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Financial support provided by the European Research Council Grant No. [280106-CrySys] is gratefully acknowledged.Peer reviewe

Global-scale modeling of nitrogen balances at the soil surface

This paper provides global terrestrial surface balances of nitrogen (N) at a resolution of 0.5 by 0.5 degree for the years 1961, 1995 and 2050 as simulated by the model WaterGAP-N. The terms livestock N excretion (Nanm), synthetic N fertilizer (Nfert), atmospheric N deposition (Ndep) and biological N fixation (Nfix) are considered as input while N export by plant uptake (Nexp) and ammonia volatilization (Nvol) are taken into account as output terms. The different terms in the balance are compared to results of other global models and uncertainties are described. Total global surface N surplus increased from 161 Tg N yr-1 in 1961 to 230 Tg N yr-1 in 1995. Using assumptions for the scenario A1B of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) as quantified by the IMAGE model, total global surface N surplus is estimated to be 229 Tg N yr-1 in 2050. However, the implementation of these scenario assumptions leads to negative surface balances in many agricultural areas on the globe, which indicates that the assumptions about N fertilizer use and crop production changes are not consistent. Recommendations are made on how to change the assumptions about N fertilizer use to receive a more consistent scenario, which would lead to higher N surpluses in 2050 as compared to 1995