Regional economic impacts of a plant disease incursion using a general equilibrium approach

The present study uses a dynamic multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to estimate the micro- andmacroeconomic effects of a hypothetical disease or pest outbreak. Our example is a Karnal bunt incursion in wheat in Western Australia. The extent of the incursion, the impact of the disease or pest on plant yields, the response of buyers, the costs of eradication and the time path of the scenario contribute to outcomes at the industry, regional, state and national levels. We decompose the contribution of these individual direct effects to the overall impact of the incursion. This might provide some guidance regarding areas for priority in attempting to eradicate or minimise the impacts of a disease or pest. The study also introduces a theory of dynamic regional labour adjustment in which economic events may lead to both real wage differentials and worker migration between regions.Crop Production/Industries,

Economics of Managing Invasive Species in Tropical and Sub-Tropical Areas of the U.S.A.: Case Study Development

Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change

An Optimal Surveillance Measure Against Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the United States

Surveillance programs on farms and in the local environment provide an essential protection against the importation and spread of exotic diseases. Combined with border quarantine measures, these programs protect both consumers and producers from major health concerns and disease incursions that can potentially destroy local agricultural production and supporting industries, as well as generate substantial losses in trade and tourism. However, surveillance programs also impose costs in the form of expenditures on the surveillance program itself, along with the costs of disease management and eradication should an incursion occur. Taking border quarantine expenditures as given, this paper develops a stochastic optimal control model (with a jump-diffusion process) to determine the optimal level of surveillance activity against a disease incursion by minimizing the present value of the major direct and indirect costs of the disease, as well as the cost of the surveillance and disease management and eradication programs. The model is applied to the case of a potential entry and spread of Foot-and-Mouth Disease in the United States. Results show that current surveillance expenditures are far less than optimal.Surveillance measures, border quarantine, disease incursion and spread, Foot- and-Mouth disease, stochastic optimal control, Livestock Production/Industries, Q1, Q17, Q18,

A bioeconomic model for determining the optimal response to a new weed incursion in Australian cropping systems

Invasions by non-indigenous plant species pose serious economic threats to Australian agricultural industries. When an invasion is discovered a decision has to be made as to whether to attempt to eradicate it, contain it or do nothing. These decisions should be based on long term benefits and costs. This paper describes a bioeconomic simulation framework with a mathematical model representing weed spread linked to a dynamic programming model to provide a means of determining the economically optimal weed management strategies over time. The modelling framework is used to evaluate case study invasive weed control problems in the Australian grains industry.weeds, incursion, bioeconomic model, Crop Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Regulatory Issues in Biosecurity

The management of biosecurity risks (risks to the production sector, to indigenous biodiversity, and to public health) involves the exercise of extensive regulatory powers both at the border and within New Zealand. This paper reviews the Biosecurity Act 1993, paying particular attention to its requirements for risk analysis and decision-making. These are generally of a high standard. Requirements at the border are significantly influenced by New Zealand’s trading obligations and opportunities. Requirements for domestic pest management strategies are elaborate but can be sidestepped. Cost recovery practices for biosecurity differ widely and have been controversial.biosecurity, pests, regulation, risk management, cost recovery

A benefit cost analysis on management strategies for Queensland Fruit Fly: methods and observations

The Queensland Fruit Fly (QFF) — Bactrocera tryoni — poses a significant threat to horticultural production in Victoria causing losses of fruit and jeopardising access to interstate and international markets. The Victorian Government implements and largely funds an area freedom program to manage QFF. Concern about the record number of outbreaks in 2007-08 and the escalating costs of maintaining the current management regime, led the Victorian Department of Primary Industries to review the program to identify improved strategies for managing QFF. As part of this work, a benefit cost analysis (BCA) of alternative strategies has been conducted. While the BCA method is well established, in general few studies are publicly available for area freedom programs. In this paper a number of the practical issues encountered in analysing area freedom are detailed, such as estimating welfare effects, how to consider social and environmental costs and benefits and incorporating risk for managing pests. Implications for policy and the design of future programs are discussed. The approach and issues identified in this paper provide insights for other agencies undertaking similar BCAs to inform biosecurity policy.International Relations/Trade,

Comparison of Alternative Meat Inspection Regimes for Pigs From Non-Controlled Housing – Considering the Cost of Error

Denmark has not had cases of bovine tuberculosis (bovTB) for more than 30 years but is obliged by trade agreements to undertake traditional meat inspection (TMI) of finisher pigs from non-controlled housing to detect bovTB. TMI is associated with higher probability of detecting bovTB but is also more costly than visual-only inspection (VOI). To identify whether VOI should replace TMI of finisher pigs from non-controlled housing, the cost of error – defined here as probability of overlooking infection and associated economic costs - should be assessed and compared with surveillance costs. First, a scenario tree model was set up to assess the ability of detecting bovTB in an infected herd (HSe) calculated for three within-herd prevalences, WHP (1, 5 and 10%), for four different surveillance scenarios (TMI and VOI with or without serological test, respectively). HSe was calculated for six consecutive 4-week surveillance periods until predicted bovTB detection (considered high-risk periods HRP). 1-HSe was probability of missing all positives by each HRP. Next, probability of spread of infection, Pspread, and number of infected animals moved were calculated for each HRP. Costs caused by overlooking bovTB were calculated taking into account Pspread, 1-HSe, eradication costs, and trade impact. Finally, the average annual costs were calculated by adding surveillance costs and assuming one incursion of bovTB in either 1, 10 or 30 years. Input parameters were based on slaughterhouse statistics, literature and expert opinion. Herd sensitivity increased by high-risk period and within-herd prevalence. Assuming WHP=5%, HSe reached median 90% by 2nd HRP for TMI, whereas for VOI this would happen after 6th HRP. Serology had limited impact on HSe. The higher the probability of infection, the higher the probability of detection and spread. TMI resulted in lowest average annual costs, if one incursion of bovTB was expected every year. However, when assuming one introduction in 10 or 30 years, VOI resulted in lowest average costs. It may be more cost-effective to focus on imported high-risk animals coming into contact with Danish livestock, instead of using TMI as surveillance on all pigs from non-controlled housing

Kiwifruit bacterial canker in 'Hayward' kiwifruit : the application of observational study design and epidemiological techniques to the study of disease outbreaks affecting plant health : a thesis presented in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Veterinary Epidemiology, Institute of Veterinary, Animal and Biomedical Sciences at Massey University, Manawatu, New Zealand

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit, caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) biovar 3, was first recorded in New Zealand in November 2010 and quickly made production of the goldfleshed kiwifruit cultivar, ‘Hort16A’, which is highly susceptible to Psa, no longer viable in the Bay of Plenty region. Production of the green-fleshed cultivar, ‘Hayward’ has remained viable but there is uncertainty around its long-term productivity. This thesis investigated aspects of Psa in commercial ‘Hayward’ orchards using observational studies. The aims were to: 1) quantify a change in productivity associated with disease; 2) determine the prevalence of disease in orchards; 3) identify factors that altered the initial development of disease and 4) identify factors that impact on the presence of severe disease. Severe disease was defined as 5% or more female vines in a block showing the systemic symptoms of green shoot wilt and cane dieback. To determine Psa effects on productivity historical data from 2599 ‘Hayward’ orchards were analysed. No reduction in productivity was found until 1 year after initial detection of Psa, after controlling for other orchard inputs that affect productivity. A crosssectional survey was sent to all Psa confirmed ‘Hayward’ orchards and 430 growers provided information about one of their ‘Hayward’ orchard blocks. The survey found 84% of orchard blocks were affected by disease and 57% had green shoot-wilt and/or cane dieback reported. Blocks typically had a low within block prevalence of systemic symptoms (Median = 5% of vines). In 194 orchards that were asymptomatic at the start of the study period the probability of disease developing in a block increased in association with use of Psa protectant sprays immediately post-pruning and using artificial pollination. A lower probability of disease developing was associated with undertaking summer girdling and with the presence of older male vines. The probability of developing severe disease was investigated in 331 orchard blocks that were symptomatic. The probability increased with time after Psa was first detected in a block and was highest when frost damage occurred, when poplar, cypress or pine shelter belts were present and when artificial pollination was used. The probability of severe bacterial canker was lower when spring girdling of female vines was undertaken. The results of this study can be used to prioritise future research. The thesis has also demonstrated the utility of observational studies for plant disease research

Benefits to Australia from ACIAR-funded Research

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,