49 research outputs found
Rapid 3D dynamic rupture modeling of the February 6, 2023, Kahramanmara\c{s}, Turkey, 7.8 and 7.7 earthquake doublet
The 2023 Turkey Earthquake sequence involved unexpected ruptures across
numerous fault segments, challenging data interpretation efforts. We present
rapid, 3D dynamic rupture simulations to illuminate the complexities of the
7.8 and 7.7 earthquake doublet. Constrained by observations available
within days of the sequence, our models deliver timely, mechanically consistent
explanations for the unforeseen rupture paths, diverse rupture speeds, multiple
slip episodes, locally strong shaking, and fault system interactions. We
reconcile regional seismo-tectonics, rupture dynamics, and ground motions of a
fault system represented by ten curved dipping segments and a heterogeneous
stress field. Our simulations link both events matching geodetic and seismic
observations. The 7.8 earthquake features delayed backward branching from
a steeply intersecting splay fault, not requiring supershear speeds. The
asymmetrical dynamics of the distinct, bilateral 7.7 event is explained by
heterogeneous fault strength, prestress orientation, fracture energy, and
static stress changes from the previous event. Our models explain the northward
deviation of its western rupture and the minimal slip observed on the S\"urg\"u
fault. Rapidly developed 3D dynamic rupture scenarios can elucidate unexpected
observations shortly after major earthquakes, providing timely insights for
data-driven analysis and hazard assessment toward a comprehensive, physically
consistent understanding of the mechanics of multi-fault systems
Sdružené inverzní modelování koseismického a postseismického skluzu kalifornského zemětřesení South Napa 2014
Název: Sdružené inverzní modelování koseismického a postseismického skluzu kalifornského zemětřesení South Napa 2014 Autor: Jan Premus Katedra: Katedra geofyziky Vedoucí dizertační práce: prof. František Gallovič, Katedra geofyziky Abstrakt: Skluz na tektonických zlomech probíhá nejen krátkodobě v průběhu zemětřesení (tzv. koseismicky), ale i v dlouhodobějším měřítku ve formě postseis- mického dokluzu, jak dokumentují měření pomocí seismogramů a geodetických metod. Oba typy skluzu byly dosud modelovány většinou odděleně a navíc převážně kinematicky. Zde představujeme Bayesovskou metodu pro inverzní fyzikální modelování koseismického a postseismického skluzu, která využívá sjed- nocující zákon tření typu "rate-and-state". Vyvinuli jsme efektivní otevřený kód FD3D TSN pro simulaci šíření zemětřesné trhliny metodou konečných difer- encí. Využití GPU vede k až desetinásobnému zrychlení kódu oproti CPU, což umožňuje provést stovky tisíc simulací zemětřesení v rozumném čase. Im- plementovali jsme také kvazidynamickou simulaci dokluzu metodou hraničních prvků. Bayesovskou dynamickou inverzi jsme aplikovali na zemětřesení v kali- fornské Napě z roku 2014 (Mw 6,0). Získaný sdružený model vysvětluje dy-...Title: Joint inverse modeling of coseismic and postseismic slip of the 2014 South Napa, California, earthquake Author: Jan Premus Department: Department of Geophysics Supervisor: prof. František Gallovič, Department of Geophysics Abstract: Slip at tectonic faults spans a wide range of time scales, from tens of seconds of earthquake coseismic rupture to months of aseismic afterslip, recorded in seismograms and geodetic data. The two slip phenomena are often studied separately, focusing on kinematic aspects. We introduce a Bayesian method for physics-based joint inverse modeling of an earthquake slip and afterslip, employ- ing a unifying rate-and-state friction law. To simulate the rupture propagation, we develop an efficient finite-difference open-source code FD3D TSN. GPU ac- celeration of the code yields speed-up by a factor of 10 with respect to a CPU, enabling hundreds of thousands of earthquake simulations in a reasonable time. We also implement a quasi-dynamic afterslip simulation using a boundary inte- gral element method. We apply the Bayesian dynamic inversion to the 2014 Mw 6.0 Napa earthquake. We reveal the dynamics of coseismic and postseismic slip in terms of stress and friction in a unified model, reconciling previous disjunctive analyses of the event. We show that the two types of slip are mostly...Katedra geofyzikyDepartment of GeophysicsMatematicko-fyzikální fakultaFaculty of Mathematics and Physic
Post-seismic response and repair of earthquake-damaged reinforced concrete bridges
“In bridge structures, column members are typically designed to be the primary source of energy dissipation during an earthquake. Therefore, reinforced concrete (RC) bridges that are damaged in an earthquake tend to have damage to the column members. While many studies have been conducted on seismic strengthening of RC bridge columns, most are focused on retrofit instead of repair. In addition, the limited research on seismic repair of RC bridges has focused on evaluating the response of individual columns (member level), not the bridge structure (system level), due to limitations in modeling and especially testing of full bridge structures. Local modifications (interventions) from the repair of a member can change its performance, and changes in column member performance can influence the bridge structure performance, especially under seismic loading. This study evaluated the impact of RC bridge column seismic repair on the member level, system level, and community level responses. Numerical simulation was used to model the response of repaired RC bridge columns (member level) and study the post-repair response of a prototype bridge with repaired columns (system level). The model was also extended to develop a methodology to minimize the level of pre-earthquake retrofit such that the RC bridge can withstand an earthquake without collapse, suffering minor or moderate damage that can be rapidly repaired later. Finally, a discrete-event-based simulation model was developed to estimate the time needed to bring the situation under control for a given volume of resources under a variety of scenarios after an earthquake occurs in a case-study community (community response), and to study the sensitivity of the restoration times to different variables”--Abstract, page iii
Multiscale Modeling and Simulation of Deformation Accumulation in Fault Networks
Strain accumulation and stress release along multiscale geological fault networks are fundamental mechanisms for earthquake and rupture processes in the lithosphere. Due to long periods of seismic quiescence, the scarcity of large earthquakes and incompleteness of paleoseismic, historical and instrumental record, there is a fundamental lack of insight into the multiscale, spatio-temporal nature of earthquake dynamics in fault networks. This thesis constitutes another step towards reliable earthquake prediction and quantitative hazard analysis. Its focus lies on developing a mathematical model for prototypical, layered fault networks on short time scales as well as their efficient numerical simulation.
This exposition begins by establishing a fault system consisting of layered bodies with viscoelastic Kelvin-Voigt rheology and non-intersecting faults featuring rate-and-state friction as proposed by Dieterich and Ruina. The individual bodies are assumed to experience small viscoelastic deformations, but possibly large relative tangential displacements. Thereafter, semi-discretization in time with the classical Newmark scheme of the variational formulation yields a sequence of continuous, nonsmooth, coupled, spatial minimization problems for the velocities and states in each time step, that are decoupled by means of a fixed point iteration. Subsequently, spatial discretization is based on linear and piecewise constant finite elements for the rate and state problems, respectively. A dual mortar discretization of the non-penetration constraints entails a hierarchical decomposition of the discrete solution space, that enables the localization of the non-penetration condition. Exploiting the resulting structure, an algebraic representation of the parametrized rate problem can be solved efficiently using a variant of the Truncated Nonsmooth Newton Multigrid (TNNMG) method. It is globally convergent due to nonlinear, block Gauß–Seidel type smoothing and employs nonsmooth Newton and multigrid ideas to enhance robustness and efficiency of the overall method. A key step in the TNNMG algorithm is the efficient computation of a correction obtained from a linearized, inexact Newton step.
The second part addresses the numerical homogenization of elliptic variational problems featuring fractal interface networks, that are structurally similar to the ones arising in the linearized correction step of the TNNMG method. Contrary to the previous setting, this model incorporates the full spatial complexity of geological fault networks in terms of truly multiscale fractal interface geometries. Here, the construction of projections from a fractal function space to finite element spaces with suitable approximation and stability properties constitutes the main contribution of this thesis. The existence of these projections enables the application of well-known approaches to numerical homogenization, such as localized orthogonal decomposition (LOD) for the construction of multiscale discretizations with optimal a priori error estimates or subspace correction methods, that lead to algebraic solvers with mesh- and scale-independent convergence rates.
Finally, numerical experiments with a single fault and the layered multiscale fault system illustrate
the properties of the mathematical model as well as the efficiency, reliability and scale-independence of the suggested algebraic solver
The State of Pore Fluid Pressure and 3-D Megathrust Earthquake Dynamics
We study the effects of pore fluid pressure (P-f) on the pre-earthquake, near-fault stress state, and 3-D earthquake rupture dynamics through six scenarios utilizing a structural model based on the 2004 M-w 9.1 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. As pre-earthquake P-f magnitude increases, effective normal stress and fault shear strength decrease. As a result, magnitude, slip, peak slip rate, stress drop, and rupture velocity of the scenario earthquakes decrease. Comparison of results with observations of the 2004 earthquake support that pre-earthquake P-f averages near 97% of lithostatic pressure, leading to pre-earthquake average shear and effective normal tractions of 4-5 and 22 MPa. The megathrust in these scenarios is weak, in terms of low mean shear traction at static failure and low dynamic friction coefficient during rupture. Apparent co-seismic principal stress rotations and absolute post-seismic stresses in these scenarios are consistent with the variety of observed aftershock focal mechanisms. In all scenarios, the mean apparent stress rotations are larger above than below the megathrust. Scenarios with larger P-f magnitudes exhibit lower mean apparent principal stress rotations. We further evaluate pre-earthquake P-f depth distribution. If P-f follows a sublithostatic gradient, pre-earthquake effective normal stress increases with depth. If P-f follows the lithostatic gradient exactly, then this normal stress is constant, shifting peak slip and peak slip rate updip. This renders constraints on near-trench strength and constitutive behavior crucial for mitigating hazard. These scenarios provide opportunity for future calibration with site-specific measurements to constrain dynamically plausible megathrust strength and P-f gradients
Simulation Intelligence: Towards a New Generation of Scientific Methods
The original "Seven Motifs" set forth a roadmap of essential methods for the
field of scientific computing, where a motif is an algorithmic method that
captures a pattern of computation and data movement. We present the "Nine
Motifs of Simulation Intelligence", a roadmap for the development and
integration of the essential algorithms necessary for a merger of scientific
computing, scientific simulation, and artificial intelligence. We call this
merger simulation intelligence (SI), for short. We argue the motifs of
simulation intelligence are interconnected and interdependent, much like the
components within the layers of an operating system. Using this metaphor, we
explore the nature of each layer of the simulation intelligence operating
system stack (SI-stack) and the motifs therein: (1) Multi-physics and
multi-scale modeling; (2) Surrogate modeling and emulation; (3)
Simulation-based inference; (4) Causal modeling and inference; (5) Agent-based
modeling; (6) Probabilistic programming; (7) Differentiable programming; (8)
Open-ended optimization; (9) Machine programming. We believe coordinated
efforts between motifs offers immense opportunity to accelerate scientific
discovery, from solving inverse problems in synthetic biology and climate
science, to directing nuclear energy experiments and predicting emergent
behavior in socioeconomic settings. We elaborate on each layer of the SI-stack,
detailing the state-of-art methods, presenting examples to highlight challenges
and opportunities, and advocating for specific ways to advance the motifs and
the synergies from their combinations. Advancing and integrating these
technologies can enable a robust and efficient hypothesis-simulation-analysis
type of scientific method, which we introduce with several use-cases for
human-machine teaming and automated science
Assessing Margin-wide Rupture Behavior along hte Cascadia Megathrust using 3-D Dynamic Rupture Simulations
This work is a non-peer reviewed preprint submitted to EarthArXiv. It is currently under review
at Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.From California to British Columbia, the Pacific Northwest coast bears an omnipresent earthquake and tsunami hazard from the Cascadia subduction zone. Multiple lines of evidence suggests that magnitude eight and greater megathrust earthquakes have occurred - the most recent being 321 years ago (i.e., 1700 A.D.). Outstanding questions for the next great megathrust event include where it will initiate, what conditions are favorable for rupture to span the convergent margin, and how much slip may be expected. We develop the first 3-D fully dynamic rupture simulations that are driven by fault stress, strength and friction to address these questions. The initial dynamic stress drop distribution in our simulations is constrained by geodetic coupling models, with segment locations taken from paleoseismic analyses. We document the sensitivity of nucleation location and stress drop to the final seismic moment and coseismic subsidence amplitudes. We find that the final earthquake size strongly depends on the amount of slip deficit in the central Cascadia region, which is inferred to be creeping interseismically, for a given initiation location in southern or northern Cascadia. Several simulations are also presented here that can closely approximate recorded coastal subsidence from the 1700 A.D. event without invoking localized high-stress asperities along the down-dip locked region of the megathrust. These results can be used to inform earthquake and tsunami hazards for not only Cascadia, but other subduction zones that have limited seismic observations but a wealth of geodetic inference.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/167720/1/Ramos_et_al_JGR_submission_eartharxiv.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/167720/2/Ramos_et_al_Supplemental_Info_eartharxiv.pdfDescription of Ramos_et_al_JGR_submission_eartharxiv.pdf : Main articleDescription of Ramos_et_al_Supplemental_Info_eartharxiv.pdf : Supplemental infoSEL
Linked 3-D modelling of megathrust earthquake-tsunami events: from subduction to tsunami run up
How does megathrust earthquake rupture govern tsunami behaviour? Recent modelling advances permit evaluation of the influence of 3-D earthquake dynamics on tsunami genesis, propagation, and coastal inundation. Here, we present and explore a virtual laboratory in which the tsunami source arises from 3-D coseismic seafloor displacements generated by a dynamic earthquake rupture model. This is achieved by linking open-source earthquake and tsunami computational models that follow discontinuous Galerkin schemes and are facilitated by highly optimized parallel algorithms and software. We present three scenarios demonstrating the flexibility and capabilities of linked modelling. In the first two scenarios, we use a dynamic earthquake source including time-dependent spontaneous failure along a 3-D planar fault surrounded by homogeneous rock and depth-dependent, near-lithostatic stresses. We investigate how slip to the trench influences tsunami behaviour by simulating one blind and one surface-breaching rupture. The blind rupture scenario exhibits distinct earthquake characteristics (lower slip, shorter rupture duration, lower stress drop, lower rupture speed), but the tsunami is similar to that from the surface-breaching rupture in run-up and length of impacted coastline. The higher tsunami-generating efficiency of the blind rupture may explain how there are differences in earthquake characteristics between the scenarios, but similarities in tsunami inundation patterns. However, the lower seafloor displacements in the blind rupture result in a smaller displaced volume of water leading to a narrower inundation corridor inland from the coast and a 15 per cent smaller inundation area overall. In the third scenario, the 3-D earthquake model is initialized using a seismo-thermo-mechanical geodynamic model simulating both subduction dynamics and seismic cycles. This ensures that the curved fault geometry, heterogeneous stresses and strength and material structure are consistent with each other and with millions of years of modelled deformation in the subduction channel. These conditions lead to a realistic rupture in terms of velocity and stress drop that is blind, but efficiently generates a tsunami. In all scenarios, comparison with the tsunamis sourced by the time-dependent seafloor displacements, using only the time-independent displacements alters tsunami temporal behaviour, resulting in later tsunami arrival at the coast, but faster coastal inundation. In the scenarios with the surface-breaching and subduction-initialized earthquakes, using the time-independent displacements also overpredicts run-up. In the future, the here presented scenarios may be useful for comparison of alternative dynamic earthquake-tsunami modelling approaches or linking choices, and can be readily developed into more complex applications to study how earthquake source dynamics influence tsunami genesis, propagation and inundation