Review and Comparison of Intelligent Optimization Modelling Techniques for Energy Forecasting and Condition-Based Maintenance in PV Plants

Within the field of soft computing, intelligent optimization modelling techniques include various major techniques in artificial intelligence. These techniques pretend to generate new business knowledge transforming sets of "raw data" into business value. One of the principal applications of these techniques is related to the design of predictive analytics for the improvement of advanced CBM (condition-based maintenance) strategies and energy production forecasting. These advanced techniques can be used to transform control system data, operational data and maintenance event data to failure diagnostic and prognostic knowledge and, ultimately, to derive expected energy generation. One of the systems where these techniques can be applied with massive potential impact are the legacy monitoring systems existing in solar PV energy generation plants. These systems produce a great amount of data over time, while at the same time they demand an important e ort in order to increase their performance through the use of more accurate predictive analytics to reduce production losses having a direct impact on ROI. How to choose the most suitable techniques to apply is one of the problems to address. This paper presents a review and a comparative analysis of six intelligent optimization modelling techniques, which have been applied on a PV plant case study, using the energy production forecast as the decision variable. The methodology proposed not only pretends to elicit the most accurate solution but also validates the results, in comparison with the di erent outputs for the di erent techniques

Failure mode prediction and energy forecasting of PV plants to assist dynamic maintenance tasks by ANN based models

In the field of renewable energy, reliability analysis techniques combining the operating time of the system with the observation of operational and environmental conditions, are gaining importance over time. In this paper, reliability models are adapted to incorporate monitoring data on operating assets, as well as information on their environmental conditions, in their calculations. To that end, a logical decision tool based on two artificial neural networks models is presented. This tool allows updating assets reliability analysis according to changes in operational and/or environmental conditions. The proposed tool could easily be automated within a supervisory control and data acquisition system, where reference values and corresponding warnings and alarms could be now dynamically generated using the tool. Thanks to this capability, on-line diagnosis and/or potential asset degradation prediction can be certainly improved. Reliability models in the tool presented are developed according to the available amount of failure data and are used for early detection of degradation in energy production due to power inverter and solar trackers functional failures. Another capability of the tool presented in the paper is to assess the economic risk associated with the system under existing conditions and for a certain period of time. This information can then also be used to trigger preventive maintenance activities

Diffusion Analysis of the Emerging Market for Low Emission Vehicles

Non peer reviewedPostprin

The roles and potentials of renewable energy in less-developed economies

Increasing the renewable energy share in national energy mix remains one of the major energy policy goals across many economies. This paper assesses the roles and potentials of renewable energy sources in less-developed economies while citing Nepal as an example. Renewable energy has a significant role to play in the electrification of rural areas in developing economies and contribute towards sustainable development. Realizing full potentials of renewable, however, requires addressing both the associated demand-side and supply–side constraints. Innovative subsidies and tax incentives, adequate entrepreneurial support, strengthening institutional arrangement and promoting local community-based organizations such as the cooperatives are the necessary factors in promoting the green technologies in countries like Nepal. International factors such as large scale investment and adequate technology transfer are equally crucial to create a rapid spread and increase affordability of decentralised renewable energy technologies in less-developed economies.renewable; electrification; research and development

Regional distribution of photovoltaic deployment in the UK and its determinants: A spatial econometric approach

Photovoltaic (PV) panels offer significant potential for contributing to the UK's energy policy goals relating to decarbonisation of the energy system, security of supply and affordability. The substantive drop in the cost of panels since 2007, coupled with the introduction of the Feed-in Tariff (FiT) Scheme in 2010, has resulted in a rapid increase in installation of PV panels in the UK, from 26.5MWp in 2009 to over 5GW by the end of 2014. Yet there has been no comprehensive analysis of the determinants of PV deployment in the UK. This paper addresses this gap by employing spatial econometrics methods to a recently available data set at a fine geographical detail. Following a traditional regression analysis, a general to specific approach has been adopted where spatial variations in the relationships have been examined utilising the spatial Durbin model using the cross-sectional data relating to the UK NUTS level 3 data. Empirical results indicate that demand for electricity, population density, pollution levels, education level of households and housing types are among the factors that affect PV uptake in a region. Moreover Lagrange Multiplier test results indicate that the spatial Durbin model may be properly applied to describe the PV uptake relationship in the UK as there are significant regional spillover effects

All-Optical Reinforcement Learning in Solitonic X-Junctions

L'etologia ha dimostrato che gruppi di animali o colonie possono eseguire calcoli complessi distribuendo semplici processi decisionali ai membri del gruppo. Ad esempio, le colonie di formiche possono ottimizzare le traiettorie verso il cibo eseguendo sia un rinforzo (o una cancellazione) delle tracce di feromone sia spostarsi da una traiettoria ad un'altra con feromone più forte. Questa procedura delle formiche possono essere implementati in un hardware fotonico per riprodurre l'elaborazione del segnale stigmergico. Presentiamo qui innovative giunzioni a X completamente integrate realizzate utilizzando guide d'onda solitoniche in grado di fornire entrambi i processi decisionali delle formiche. Le giunzioni a X proposte possono passare da comportamenti simmetrici (50/50) ad asimmetrici (80/20) utilizzando feedback ottici, cancellando i canali di uscita inutilizzati o rinforzando quelli usati.Ethology has shown that animal groups or colonies can perform complex calculation distributing simple decision-making processes to the group members. For example ant colonies can optimize the trajectories towards the food by performing both a reinforcement (or a cancellation) of the pheromone traces and a switch from one path to another with stronger pheromone. Such ant's processes can be implemented in a photonic hardware to reproduce stigmergic signal processing. We present innovative, completely integrated X-junctions realized using solitonic waveguides which can provide both ant's decision-making processes. The proposed X-junctions can switch from symmetric (50/50) to asymmetric behaviors (80/20) using optical feedbacks, vanishing unused output channels or reinforcing the used ones

Active network management for electrical distribution systems: problem formulation, benchmark, and approximate solution

With the increasing share of renewable and distributed generation in electrical distribution systems, Active Network Management (ANM) becomes a valuable option for a distribution system operator to operate his system in a secure and cost-effective way without relying solely on network reinforcement. ANM strategies are short-term policies that control the power injected by generators and/or taken off by loads in order to avoid congestion or voltage issues. Advanced ANM strategies imply that the system operator has to solve large-scale optimal sequential decision-making problems under uncertainty. For example, decisions taken at a given moment constrain the future decisions that can be taken and uncertainty must be explicitly accounted for because neither demand nor generation can be accurately forecasted. We first formulate the ANM problem, which in addition to be sequential and uncertain, has a nonlinear nature stemming from the power flow equations and a discrete nature arising from the activation of power modulation signals. This ANM problem is then cast as a stochastic mixed-integer nonlinear program, as well as second-order cone and linear counterparts, for which we provide quantitative results using state of the art solvers and perform a sensitivity analysis over the size of the system, the amount of available flexibility, and the number of scenarios considered in the deterministic equivalent of the stochastic program. To foster further research on this problem, we make available at http://www.montefiore.ulg.ac.be/~anm/ three test beds based on distribution networks of 5, 33, and 77 buses. These test beds contain a simulator of the distribution system, with stochastic models for the generation and consumption devices, and callbacks to implement and test various ANM strategies