Endogenous Fertility, Mortality and Economic Growth: Can a Malthusian Framework Account for the Conflicting Historical Trends in Population?

The 19th century economist, Thomas Robert Malthus, hypothesized that the long-run supply of labor is completely elastic at a fixed wage-income level because population growth tends to outstrip real output growth. Dynamic equilibrium with constant income and population is achieved through equilibrating adjustments in "positive checks" (mortality, starvation) and "preventive checks" (marriage, fertility). Developing economies since the Industrial Revolution, and more recently especially Asian economies, have experienced steady income growth accompanied by sharply falling fertility and mortality rates. We develop a dynamic model of endogenous fertility, longevity, and human capital formation within a Malthusian framework that allows for diminishing returns to labor but also for the role of human capital as an engine of growth. Our model accounts for economic stagnation with high fertility and mortality and constant population and income, as predicted by Malthus, but also for takeoffs to a growth regime and a demographic transition toward low fertility and mortality rates, and a persistent growth in per-capita income.

Czech pensionsystem : challenges and reform options

The purpose of the paper is to review the structure and performance of the Czech pension system and examine alternative reform options. The paper shows that in the absence of reform the deficits of the Czech pension system may exceed 8 percent of GDP in 2050. To contain these deficits the paper explores two major pay-as-you-go (PAYG) reform options. The first major option is a standard parametric reform that preserves the defined benefit (DB) scheme. The second major option involves parametric reforms combined with a switch to a notional defined contribution (NDC) scheme. The paper shows that the NDC cum parametric reforms would automatically tighten the link between contributions and benefits and be more resilient to unpredicted demographic shocks. However, both the DB and the NDC options would produce a significant reduction in replacement rates, especially for young generations. To avoid an excessive drop in replacement ratios the authorities should make an effort to increase coverage of the third pillar and improve the regulatory framework for third pillar funds. The authorities may also have to consider introducing a second pillar to ensure universal coverage, especially of young workers. Introducing a second pillar will be easier if the PAYG reforms start immediately. This is because an early implementation of the PAYG reforms would produce a significant improvement of the PAYG and offset at least partly the revenue losses arising from the diversion of contributions to the second pillar.Pensions&Retirement Systems,Environmental Economics&Policies,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Health Monitoring&Evaluation

Sustaining Social Security in an Era of Population Aging

John A. Turner offers a set of reforms for restoring solvency to Social Security that are deemed to have merit in the current political climate. These reforms relate to several vexing issues including increased life expectancy, the growing relationship between income and life expectancy, the declines in the physical demands of jobs, growing income inequality, and the pattern of poverty increasing at older ages.https://research.upjohn.org/up_press/1257/thumbnail.jp

Ageing and pensions in the Euro Area Survey and projection results

Population ageing will impose a significant burden on European fiscal balances, in particular through pay-as-you-go pension systems. This study presents an independent estimate of this burden for the euro area, and quantifies the impact of two reform scenarios. Based on widely used, but optimistic assumptions, the present value of future pension deficits through 2050 is estimated at 51percent of GDP, adding to the current average explicit debt stock of around 67 percent of GDP. In this calculation, the deficits currently incurred by many pension systems as revenues fall short of expenditures, are not included. Viable parametric reforms represent no durable solution to alleviate the burden sufficiently, as they can balance pension systems at best temporarily. A comprehensive reform, including reforms of current systems, and a move towards partial funding, is found to ensure permanent financial viability of the public pension system.Pensions&Retirement Systems,Environmental Economics&Policies,Economic Theory&Research,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Stabilization

Contract renewal as an incentive device. An application to the French urban public transport sector

In the French urban public transport industry, services are often delegated to a private firm by the mean of a fixed-term regulatory contract. This contract specifies the duties of the firm and a financial compensation. When it expires, a new contract is awarded, possibly to a different operator. Cost-plus and fixed-price (gross cost or net cost) contracts are commonly used to regulate the operators in the transport industry. In this paper, we analyse the incentives for the operator to reduce its cost. These incentives come from both the profit maximization during the current contract and the perspective of contract renewal. In our model, the amount of cost-reducing effort depends on the contract type and the time remaining till contract expiration. We use a sample of 124 French urban public transport networks covering the period 1995-2002 to test our predictions. Our proxy for the cost reducing effort is technical efficiency. The data largely confirm the importance of contract type on performances and the incentive effect of contract renewal.incentive regulation, urban transport, stochastic frontier analysis.

Combinatorial Optimization

Combinatorial Optimization is an active research area that developed from the rich interaction among many mathematical areas, including combinatorics, graph theory, geometry, optimization, probability, theoretical computer science, and many others. It combines algorithmic and complexity analysis with a mature mathematical foundation and it yields both basic research and applications in manifold areas such as, for example, communications, economics, traffic, network design, VLSI, scheduling, production, computational biology, to name just a few. Through strong inner ties to other mathematical fields it has been contributing to and benefiting from areas such as, for example, discrete and convex geometry, convex and nonlinear optimization, algebraic and topological methods, geometry of numbers, matroids and combinatorics, and mathematical programming. Moreover, with respect to applications and algorithmic complexity, Combinatorial Optimization is an essential link between mathematics, computer science and modern applications in data science, economics, and industry

An Empirical Model of the Medical Match

This paper develops a framework for estimating preferences in a many-to-one matching market using only observed matches. I use pairwise stability and a vertical preference restriction on one side to identify preferences on both sides of the market. Counterfactual simulations are used to analyze the antitrust allegation that the centralized medical residency match is responsible for salary depression. Due to residents' willingness to pay for desirable programs and capacity constraints, salaries in any competitive equilibrium would remain, on average, at least $23,000 below the marginal product of labor. Therefore, the match is not the likely cause of low salaries.National Bureau of Economic Research (Nonprofit Fellowship)Gardner and Florence Call Cowles Foundatio