A methodology for airplane parameter estimation and confidence interval determination in nonlinear estimation problems

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed with an efficient method for approximating the sensitivities. The ML algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). MNRES determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. With the fitted surface, sensitivity information can be updated at each iteration with less computational effort than that required by either a finite-difference method or integration of the analytically determined sensitivity equations. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations for each new model, and thus provides flexibility to use model equations in any convenient format. A random search technique for determining the confidence limits of ML parameter estimates is applied to nonlinear estimation problems for airplanes. The confidence intervals obtained by the search are compared with Cramer-Rao (CR) bounds at the same confidence level. The degree of nonlinearity in the estimation problem is an important factor in the relationship between CR bounds and the error bounds determined by the search technique. Beale's measure of nonlinearity is developed in this study for airplane identification problems; it is used to empirically correct confidence levels and to predict the degree of agreement between CR bounds and search estimates

A Tractable Fault Detection and Isolation Approach for Nonlinear Systems with Probabilistic Performance

This article presents a novel perspective along with a scalable methodology to design a fault detection and isolation (FDI) filter for high dimensional nonlinear systems. Previous approaches on FDI problems are either confined to linear systems or they are only applicable to low dimensional dynamics with specific structures. In contrast, shifting attention from the system dynamics to the disturbance inputs, we propose a relaxed design perspective to train a linear residual generator given some statistical information about the disturbance patterns. That is, we propose an optimization-based approach to robustify the filter with respect to finitely many signatures of the nonlinearity. We then invoke recent results in randomized optimization to provide theoretical guarantees for the performance of the proposed filer. Finally, motivated by a cyber-physical attack emanating from the vulnerabilities introduced by the interaction between IT infrastructure and power system, we deploy the developed theoretical results to detect such an intrusion before the functionality of the power system is disrupted

Some sensitivity results in stochastic optimal control: A Lagrange multiplier point of view

In this work we provide a first order sensitivity analysis of some parameterized stochastic optimal control problems. The parameters can be given by random processes. The main tool is the one-to-one correspondence between the adjoint states appearing in a weak form of the stochastic Pontryagin principle and the Lagrange multipliers associated to the state equation