Endogenous contagion – a panel data analysis

This paper proposes a panel data model to analyze contagion in a multivariate framework. The model distinguishes between vulnerability and contagion, and provides a time series of contagion. The most important feature of the model is the endogenous determination of contagion without an a priori and potentially arbitrary specification of the crisis period. In addition, the model can distinguish between positive and negative contagion, and no assumption needs to be made about the source of the crisis. Eleven stock markets from the Asian region are analyzed during the Asian financial crisis, and contagion is found to be significant in four broad periods. These episodes are split equally between positive and negative movements. Anecdotal evidence is matched to the significant incidences of contagion, and it is found that events surrounding Hong Kong equity markets are key drivers of contagion

GfK Panel Data Analysis of meat consumption

This short report represents a summary of the analysis conducted so far on the GfK Panel Data. The focus was on the main three types of raw meat: chicken, pork, beef, as well as three categories of processed food products: liver paste, cold cuts and sausages. The aim was to look at the market indicators for each one of the six sub-categories, out of which market share and penetration were considered to be the most important. Besides these two indicators, I also included some extra calculations for each category, which can be analysed further and more in-depth if needed. One of the desired outcomes of the analyses was to identify companies and brands that were successful in each sub-category. Unfortunately, due to the generally low market shares of the organic products, the number of options was limited. Beef and pork were two categories where no brands were registered in the original product and sales Files. In the chicken category there was only one brand registered between 2006 and 2010, however, the market shares were extremely low for this category. There were only one or two households buying organic chicken products. The processed meat sub-categories both had a few companies registered. However, the diversity isn’t large. Still, it is good to notice that in the three sub-categories there were two companies that were most present: Farre Food and Hanegal. Market shares were generally low for all six sub-categories. Organic beef, pork and liver paste were the only categories to reach market shares of over 1%, while organic chicken had the lowest market shares of all. The trends were generally fluctuating over time. The highest market shares for liver paste, pork, chicken and beef were registered in 2007. All these four categories had much lower market shares in 2009, but it is interesting to notice that in the same year, organic cold cuts and sausages registered the highest market shares. Except for chicken, all market shares dropped in 2010 compared to 2009. Penetration levels had a clear descending trend for organic beef and liver paste, whereas for the other subcategories the levels fluctuated. Organic chicken and sausage generally had an ascending trend, while organic pork and cold cuts usually had descending trends in penetration levels. The highest penetration rates were registered in 2006 for liver paste, beef and cold cuts and in 2008 for sausages, chicken and pork. Out of all the six sub-categories that were analysed, organic beef has had the highest market shares and highest penetration rates, even though the figures were lower and lower every year. Regarding the average price paid/100 gr of meat products, we notice that in the organic category there is more fluctuation than in the conventional category, meaning that the price of organic products varies more between years. According to the analysis, the price difference between the organic and the conventional options in a sub-category is clearly notices in the processed meat category, but it is not as well defined for chicken, pork and beef. There are some limitations regarding the analysis of the panel data. On the one hand, these are due to the fact that there are some incompatibilities between the product file and the sales file regarding the identification of products as being organic or not. On the other hand, some of the products were registered as “unknown”, meaning that they are neither analysed as being organic, nor as being conventional, but as being a separate category. It is considered however that due to the fact that the results of the analysis are so small, the correction of these errors would not change the numbers significantly

Portuguese tourism demand:a dynamic panel data analysis

This article considers the determinants of Portuguese tourism demand for the period 2004-2013. The econometric methodology uses a panel unit root test and the dynamic panel data (GMM-system estimator). The different techniques of panel unit root (Levin, Lin and Chu; Im, Pesaran and Shin W-stat and augmented Dickey-Fuller - Fisher Chi-square) show that the variables used in this panel are stationary. The dynamic model proves that tourism demand is a dynamic process. The variables relative prices, income per capita, human capital and government spending encourage international tourism demand for Portugal.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Drivers of fund performance: a panel data analysis

The principle aim of this research is to elucidate the factors driving the total rate of return of non-listed funds using a panel data analytical framework. In line with previous results, we find that core funds exhibit lower yet more stable returns than value-added and, in particular, opportunistic funds, both cross-sectionally and over time. After taking into account overall market exposure, as measured by weighted market returns, the excess returns of value-added and opportunity funds are likely to stem from: high leverage, high exposure to development, active asset management and investment in specialized property sectors. A random effects estimation of the panel data model largely confirms the findings obtained from the fixed effects model. Again, the country and sector property effect shows the strongest significance in explaining total returns. The stock market variable is negative which hints at switching effects between competing asset classes. For opportunity funds, on average, the returns attributable to gearing are three times higher than those for value added funds and over five times higher than for core funds. Overall, there is relatively strong evidence indicating that country and sector allocation, style, gearing and fund size combinations impact on the performance of unlisted real estate funds

Determinants of interregional migration in Italy:A panel data analysis

After two decades of low internal migration rates, official national statistics report a considerable increase of internal mobility which started in 1996 and still continues to grow at the time of writing. Using panel data analysis on gross migration flows between regions, this study investigates the role of the main economic determinants during the period 1996-2002.. The analysis distinguishes between the role played by the same explanatory variable in the sending region (push factor) and in the destination region (pull factor). The per capita GDP turns out to be the main economic determinant, showing a strong effect both when it acts as a push factor and when it acts as an attractive factor. On the contrary, the effect of the unemployment rate estimates is much stronger in the sending region than in the destination region. Moreover, the standard gravity variables like distance and population size are also significant and with the expected sign

Money Demand in Mongolia: A Panel Data Analysis

This paper investigates if there is a significant money demand relationship in Mongolia. The data used is a panel data set covering 22 Mongolian regions over the period 1993-99. The static fixed effect, dynamic fixed effect, and the pooled mean group estimators all confirm the key role of monetary policy in stabilization and reveal that even in a transition economy as rudimentary as Mongolia, a stable money demand exists. In addition, the analysis points to an elasticity of money demand with respect to activity around 0.5, reflecting the larger role for transactions demand for money. Copyright 2002, International Monetary Fund

A Panel Data Analysis

학위논문(석사) -- 서울대학교대학원 : 보건대학원 보건학과(보건정책관리학전공), 2022. 8. 김선영.배경 및 목적: 감염병을 예방하는 방법 중 최소 비용으로 최대 효율을 낼 수 있는 수단은 예방접종이다 (Ehreth, 2003). 특히나 영유아 예방접종은 발생률 및 사망률을 효과적으로 감소시킬 수 있는 방법으로 알려져 있다 (Brownson et al., 2003). 예방접종을 출생 시부터 적기에 실시하는 것은 영유아의 면역을 키워 감염병을 예방하고 영유아의 기초 건강을 향상시켜 질병으로부터 안전하게 한다. 그러나, 예방접종을 위한 전 세계적인 노력에도 불구하고 사하라이남 아프리카 국가들의 많은 영유아들은 여전히 예방접종을 완료하지 못하고 있다. 특히 사하라이남 아프리카에서는 영유아 백신 접종 중도탈락률이 다른 지역보다 현저히 높게 나타나는데, 높은 중도탈락률의 요인에 대한 현재까지의 연구는 개개인의 사회경제적 요인에 많이 집중 되어있고 보건의료체계차원에서의 연구는 부족한 상황이다. 보건의료체계의 여섯 가지 구성 요소 중 예방접종이라는 의료적 개입을 위한 투입(input) 역할을 하는 것이 재정(financing)과 보건의료인력이다. 그 중 재원 조달과 대부분의 필수백신은 UNICEF와 Gavi의 도움으로 사하라이남 아프리카 국가들에게도 매우 낮은 비용으로 구매지원되므로 실제 백신투여에 중요한 역할을 담당하는 보건의료인력에 초점을 두어 살펴보고자 하였다. 더욱이, 사하라이남 아프리카 지역의 보건의료인력 부족은 이미 잘 알려져 있지만 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 영유아 예방접종 중도탈락률에 미치는 영향에 대한 연구는 전무하다. 따라서 본 연구는 사하라이남 아프리카 국가에서 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 영유아 백신 접종 중도탈락률에 어떠한 영향을 미치는지 조사하는 것을 목표로 하였다. 방법: 본 논문에서 정의하는 보건의료인력은 영유아 백신을 전달할 수 있는 면허 및 자격을 취득한 사람이다. 의사, 간호사 등 백신 투여 허가를 받은 의료 전문가와 이 과정을 직접적으로 보조하는 조산사 등의 전문가가 포함된다. 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 사하라이남 아프리카 국가들의 영유아 백신 접종 중도탈락률 개선에 효과가 있는지 살펴보기 위해 본 연구는 2000년부터 2019년까지 46개의 사하라이남 아프리카 지역 국가들을 대상으로 국가수준의 패널데이터를 구축하여 회귀분석을 수행하였다. 영유아 백신 접종 중도탈락률 지표로는 DTP1-DTP3과 DTP1-MCV1 중도탈락률을 살펴보았고, 보건의료인력 수급 현황은 각국의 1.000명당 의사 수, 그리고 간호사 및 조산사 수의 합계를 이용하였다. 통제변수로는 1인당 국내총생산, 1인당 경상의료비, 1인당 의료비 본인부담금, Gavi 지급액(Gavi disbursements), 정부 효과성(government effectiveness), 정치적 안정성과 무폭력(political stability and absence of violence), 부패의 통제(control of corruption)를 선택하였다. 결과: 기술 분석에 따르면 2000년부터 2019년까지 Gavi 지원을 받은 총 37개국의 1,000명당 의사 수는 크게 증가하지 않은 추세이며, 간호사 및 조산사 수는 점차 증가하는 경향이 나타나기는 했지만 전반적으로 낮은 수준에 머물러 있다. Gavi 지원을 받지 않은 9개국의 의사 수는 20년간 꾸준히 증가했지만 간호사 및 조산사 수는 오히려 줄고 있는 추세를 보였다. 고정효과 패널회귀분석 결과에 따르면, 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 증가할수록, DTP1-DTP3 중도탈락률은 유의하게 감소하는 것으로 나타났다. 보건의료인력 수급 현황은 DTP1-DTP3 중도탈락률, 인구 밀도, 그리고 부패 통제율에 통계적으로 유의미한 결과를 나타냈지만 효과의 크기는 미미한 것으로 확인되었다. 예를 들어, 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 1% 증가할 때 DTP1-DTP3 중도탈락률은 0.007% 감소하였다. 통제변수 1인당 경상의료비, Gavi 지급액과 부패의 통제도 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미쳤지만 1인당 경상의료비가1% 증가할 경우 DTP1-DTP3중도탈락률은 0.045% 감소, Gavi 지급액이 1% 증가할 경우 DTP1-DTP3중도탈락률은 0.009% 감소하였고, 부패 통제율이 1% 증가할 경우 DTP1-DTP3중도탈락률은 0.036% 감소했다. 결론: 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 DTP1-MCV1 중도탈락률에 미치는 영향은 통계적으로 유의미하지 않게 나타난 것은 여러 요인에 기인한 것일 수 있다. 우선 두 종속변수의 특성 차이에 기인한 것일 수 있다. 즉, DTP1-DTP3 중도탈락률은 전달 효과성(delivery effectiveness)을 측정하는 지표로 사용되고 DTP1-MCV1 중도탈락률은 프로그램 효과성(program effectiveness)을 측정하는 지표로 사용되는 것을 감안할 때, 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 전달 효과성에 더욱 직접적인 영향을 주는 것으로 추측해 볼 수 있다. 또한, 지표로서의 DTP1-DTP3중도탈락율과 DTP1-MCV1 중도탈락률에 영향을 미치는 변수가 누락된 오류 (omitted variable bias)의 가능성에 대해서도 생각해 볼 수 있다. 본 연구는 보건의료인력 수급 현황이 보건의료체계에서, 특히 효과적인 보건 서비스 전달(service delivery)을 위한 필수 요소임을 강조하고, 의료인력 수급이 현저히 부족한 사하라이남 아프리카에서 보건의료체계 강화를 촉진할 수 있는 여러 주요 요인 중 하나임을 보여준다. 본 연구 결과로 미루어 보아 사하라이남 아프리카의 아동 예방접종 중도탈락률을 개선시키기 위해서는 보건의료인력 수급 확보방안과 근무 환경 개선을 위한 정책 대안이 필요할 것으로 보인다. 즉, 보건의료인력 수급을 위해 예산지원 등 인센티브를 부여하는 대책과 의료현장 근무 시 근무 여건 개선을 위한 장기적인 전략을 수립하는 것이 필요하다고 사료된다. 본 연구는, 이와 같은 정책적 함의 제공과 더불어 기존 연구에서 부족했던 사하라이남 아프리카의 영유아 백신 접종 중도탈락률에 대한 요인을 보건의료체계차원에서 살펴봤다는 점과, 패널자료를 이용하여 보건의료인력 수급 현황과 영유아 백신 접종 중도탈락률의 관계를 살펴본 첫 연구라는 점에서 의의를 지닌다.Background: Vaccines are the most cost-effective public health intervention for preventing infectious diseases (Ehreth, 2003). Infant immunization, in particular, is an effective method to decrease morbidity and mortality caused by infectious diseases throughout one’s lifetime (Brownson et, al. 2003). Timely vaccination since birth can help infants' immune systems to fight infectious diseases effectively and ultimately protect them from harmful diseases. However, despite years of global efforts to immunize children, many children in sub-Saharan African countries remain undervaccinated. Infant vaccine dropout rate, in particular, is significantly higher in sub-Saharan Africa than that of other regions So far, studies on factors related to the high infant dropout rate in sub-Saharan African countries are concentrated merely on individual socioeconomic factors and not on the countries’ health systems. Among the six WHO health system building blocks, key input components of an intervention (vaccination in this case) are ‘financing’ and ‘health workforce’. Since most of the sub-Saharan African countries are financially supported by UNICEF and Gavi, and the essential vaccines are provided at low-cost, the study focuses on the role of ‘health workforce’ as it is directly related to vaccine administration and service delivery. Moreover, although it is well-known that there is a shortage of health workforce in sub-Saharan African countries, there has been no study on the effect of health workforce availability on infant vaccine dropout rate. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of health workforce availability on infant vaccine dropout rate in sub-Saharan African countries. Methodology: The working definition of ‘health workforce’ in this paper is people who deliver and assist in the delivery of childhood vaccines. These include medical professionals who are licensed to administer vaccines such as physicians, nurses and midwives who directly assist this process. Descriptive statistics and time trend graphs were drawn to find out the general trends of all variables. Fixed-effects panel regression analysis was then conducted to examine the relationship between health workforce availability and infant vaccine dropout rates from 46 sub-Saharan African countries from 2000 to 2019. Two dependent variables: DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate and DTP1-MCV1 dropout rate were selected to represent infant vaccine dropout rate. Total number of physicians, nurses and midwives was selected to represent the total health workforce as the explanatory variable. Results: Descriptive statistics show that over twenty years (2000-2019), number of physicians per 1,000 people has remained very low in 37 Gavi-supported countries whilst these numbers have significantly increased in 9 non-Gavi-supported countries. Similarly, fairly minimal increase in number of nurses and midwives per 1,000 people was shown in Gavi-supported countries. Number of nurses and midwives decreased over the twenty years in non-Gavi-supported countries. Both DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate and DTP1-MCV1 dropout rate showed a general decline over time. Analysis from fixed-effects panel regression analysis shows that health workforce does have a significant impact on DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate, even though its impact is minimal. However, the same statistical significance could not be seen in DTP1-MCV1 dropout rate. Conclusion: The results of this study reveal that health workforce, and control of corruption have a moderate impact, on DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate. With a 1% increase in Health workforce, there was a 0.007% decrease in DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate. Regarding control variables, current health expenditure per capita, Gavi disbursements, and control of corruption had significant relationship with DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate. With 1% increase in current health expenditure per capita there was a 0.045% decrease in DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate (robust standard error= 2.132, p-value<0.05) and with 1% increase in Gavi disbursements there was a 0.009% decrease in DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate (robust standard error= 0.467, p-value<0.05). Finally, with 1% increase in control of corruption there was a 0.032% decrease in DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate. This study suggests that health workforce availability is one of many factors that can foster delivery effectiveness in sub-Saharan African countries. Since DTP1-DTP3 dropout rate is considered to be a better measure of delivery effectiveness, and DTP1-MCV1 dropout rate a better measure of programme effectiveness, our results reveal that health worker availability is more directly related to delivery effectiveness. Nevertheless, there could be omitted-variable bias, meaning that it could have left out relevant factors related to both DTP1-DTP3 and DTP1-MCV1 dropout rate. All in all, findings from this study reveal the urgent need to invest in health workforce as well as policies and strategies to maintain and scale up health workforce capacity in sub-Saharan Africa. One could suggest establishing measures such as increased salary or provision of incentives, improved working conditions as well as long-term strategies to ensure that medical personnel continue to stay in the medical field. This study is significant in that it has examined the relationship between health workforce availability and infant vaccine dropout rate in sub-Sahara African countries using panel data for the first time.Chapter 1. Introduction 1 1.1. Study Background 1 1.2. Research Objectives 3 Chapter 2. Literature Review 4 2.1. Definition of Main Concepts 4 2.2. Factors Associated with Vaccine Dropout 6 2.2.1 Gender and Immunization 9 2.3 Global Initiatives for Immunization 10 2.3.1. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance 11 Chapter 3. Methods 11 3.1. Study Design 11 3.2. Study Setting 11 3.3. Measures and Data Sources 14 3.3.1. Dependent Variables 14 3.3.2. Explanatory Variable 14 3.3.3. Control Variables 15 3.4. Method of Analysis 18 Chapter 4. Results 19 4.1. Descriptive Statistics 19 4.2. General Trends of Variables 23 4.3. Regression Analysis 27 Chapter 5. Discussion 30 5.1. Limitation of Study 32 5.1.1 Constraints on Research Design and Methodology 32 5.1.2 Future Directions 33 Chapter 6. Conclusion 34 Bibliography 35 Appendices 40 Abstract in Korean 48석

The shadow economy Kuznets’s curve panel data analysis

The review of recent literature shows the relationship between shadow economy and economic growth is ambiguous. This paper attempts to answer whether the relationship between shadow economy and economic growth depends on the level of development or not? In this way, the Shadow Economy Kuznets’s Curve (SEKC) is estimated in two quadratic -Inverted U- and cubic -N shape- functional form by using shadow economies data of 21 selected OECD countries for time period of 1995-2006. The panel data analyses results show that cubic functional form justifies the relationship between shadow economy and economic growth better, this relationship depends on the level of development and the shadow economy has a positive effect on the official economy.Shadow economy, economic growth, Kuznets’s curve, panel data analysis, OECD