A Tight Excess Risk Bound via a Unified PAC-Bayesian-Rademacher-Shtarkov-MDL Complexity

We present a novel notion of complexity that interpolates between and generalizes some classic existing complexity notions in learning theory: for estimators like empirical risk minimization (ERM) with arbitrary bounded losses, it is upper bounded in terms of data-independent Rademacher complexity; for generalized Bayesian estimators, it is upper bounded by the data-dependent information complexity (also known as stochastic or PAC-Bayesian, $\mathrm{KL}(\text{posterior} \operatorname{\|} \text{prior})$ complexity. For (penalized) ERM, the new complexity reduces to (generalized) normalized maximum likelihood (NML) complexity, i.e. a minimax log-loss individual-sequence regret. Our first main result bounds excess risk in terms of the new complexity. Our second main result links the new complexity via Rademacher complexity to $L_2(P)$ entropy, thereby generalizing earlier results of Opper, Haussler, Lugosi, and Cesa-Bianchi who did the log-loss case with $L_\infty$. Together, these results recover optimal bounds for VC- and large (polynomial entropy) classes, replacing localized Rademacher complexity by a simpler analysis which almost completely separates the two aspects that determine the achievable rates: 'easiness' (Bernstein) conditions and model complexity.Comment: 38 page

Emergence of Invariance and Disentanglement in Deep Representations

Using established principles from Statistics and Information Theory, we show that invariance to nuisance factors in a deep neural network is equivalent to information minimality of the learned representation, and that stacking layers and injecting noise during training naturally bias the network towards learning invariant representations. We then decompose the cross-entropy loss used during training and highlight the presence of an inherent overfitting term. We propose regularizing the loss by bounding such a term in two equivalent ways: One with a Kullbach-Leibler term, which relates to a PAC-Bayes perspective; the other using the information in the weights as a measure of complexity of a learned model, yielding a novel Information Bottleneck for the weights. Finally, we show that invariance and independence of the components of the representation learned by the network are bounded above and below by the information in the weights, and therefore are implicitly optimized during training. The theory enables us to quantify and predict sharp phase transitions between underfitting and overfitting of random labels when using our regularized loss, which we verify in experiments, and sheds light on the relation between the geometry of the loss function, invariance properties of the learned representation, and generalization error.Comment: Deep learning, neural network, representation, flat minima, information bottleneck, overfitting, generalization, sufficiency, minimality, sensitivity, information complexity, stochastic gradient descent, regularization, total correlation, PAC-Baye

A General Framework for Updating Belief Distributions

We propose a framework for general Bayesian inference. We argue that a valid update of a prior belief distribution to a posterior can be made for parameters which are connected to observations through a loss function rather than the traditional likelihood function, which is recovered under the special case of using self information loss. Modern application areas make it is increasingly challenging for Bayesians to attempt to model the true data generating mechanism. Moreover, when the object of interest is low dimensional, such as a mean or median, it is cumbersome to have to achieve this via a complete model for the whole data distribution. More importantly, there are settings where the parameter of interest does not directly index a family of density functions and thus the Bayesian approach to learning about such parameters is currently regarded as problematic. Our proposed framework uses loss-functions to connect information in the data to functionals of interest. The updating of beliefs then follows from a decision theoretic approach involving cumulative loss functions. Importantly, the procedure coincides with Bayesian updating when a true likelihood is known, yet provides coherent subjective inference in much more general settings. Connections to other inference frameworks are highlighted.Comment: This is the pre-peer reviewed version of the article "A General Framework for Updating Belief Distributions", which has been accepted for publication in the Journal of Statistical Society - Series B. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archivin