Estimation in semi-parametric regression with non-stationary regressors

In this paper, we consider a partially linear model of the form $Y_t=X_t^{\tau}\theta_0+g(V_t)+\epsilon_t$, $t=1,...,n$, where $\{V_t\}$ is a $\beta$ null recurrent Markov chain, $\{X_t\}$ is a sequence of either strictly stationary or non-stationary regressors and $\{\epsilon_t\}$ is a stationary sequence. We propose to estimate both $\theta_0$ and $g(\cdot)$ by a semi-parametric least-squares (SLS) estimation method. Under certain conditions, we then show that the proposed SLS estimator of $\theta_0$ is still asymptotically normal with the same rate as for the case of stationary time series. In addition, we also establish an asymptotic distribution for the nonparametric estimator of the function $g(\cdot)$. Some numerical examples are provided to show that our theory and estimation method work well in practice.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/10-BEJ344 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm

Parametric and nonparametric inference in equilibrium job search models

Equilibrium job search models allow for labor markets with homogeneous workers and firms to yield nondegenerate wage densities. However, the resulting wage densities do not accord well with empirical regularities. Accordingly, many extensions to the basic equilibrium search model have been considered (e.g., heterogeneity in productivity, heterogeneity in the value of leisure, etc.). It is increasingly common to use nonparametric forms for these extensions and, hence, researchers can obtain a perfect fit (in a kernel smoothed sense) between theoretical and empirical wage densities. This makes it difficult to carry out model comparison of different model extensions. In this paper, we first develop Bayesian parametric and nonparametric methods which are comparable to the existing non-Bayesian literature. We then show how Bayesian methods can be used to compare various nonparametric equilibrium search models in a statistically rigorous sense

Closed-Loop Statistical Verification of Stochastic Nonlinear Systems Subject to Parametric Uncertainties

This paper proposes a statistical verification framework using Gaussian processes (GPs) for simulation-based verification of stochastic nonlinear systems with parametric uncertainties. Given a small number of stochastic simulations, the proposed framework constructs a GP regression model and predicts the system's performance over the entire set of possible uncertainties. Included in the framework is a new metric to estimate the confidence in those predictions based on the variance of the GP's cumulative distribution function. This variance-based metric forms the basis of active sampling algorithms that aim to minimize prediction error through careful selection of simulations. In three case studies, the new active sampling algorithms demonstrate up to a 35% improvement in prediction error over other approaches and are able to correctly identify regions with low prediction confidence through the variance metric.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to ACC 201

Sequential Data-Adaptive Bandwidth Selection by Cross-Validation for Nonparametric Prediction

We consider the problem of bandwidth selection by cross-validation from a sequential point of view in a nonparametric regression model. Having in mind that in applications one often aims at estimation, prediction and change detection simultaneously, we investigate that approach for sequential kernel smoothers in order to base these tasks on a single statistic. We provide uniform weak laws of large numbers and weak consistency results for the cross-validated bandwidth. Extensions to weakly dependent error terms are discussed as well. The errors may be {\alpha}-mixing or L2-near epoch dependent, which guarantees that the uniform convergence of the cross validation sum and the consistency of the cross-validated bandwidth hold true for a large class of time series. The method is illustrated by analyzing photovoltaic data.Comment: 26 page