DeepTransport: Learning Spatial-Temporal Dependency for Traffic Condition Forecasting

Predicting traffic conditions has been recently explored as a way to relieve traffic congestion. Several pioneering approaches have been proposed based on traffic observations of the target location as well as its adjacent regions, but they obtain somewhat limited accuracy due to lack of mining road topology. To address the effect attenuation problem, we propose to take account of the traffic of surrounding locations(wider than adjacent range). We propose an end-to-end framework called DeepTransport, in which Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) are utilized to obtain spatial-temporal traffic information within a transport network topology. In addition, attention mechanism is introduced to align spatial and temporal information. Moreover, we constructed and released a real-world large traffic condition dataset with 5-minute resolution. Our experiments on this dataset demonstrate our method captures the complex relationship in temporal and spatial domain. It significantly outperforms traditional statistical methods and a state-of-the-art deep learning method

Forecasting bus passenger flows by using a clustering-based support vector regression approach

As a significant component of the intelligent transportation system, forecasting bus passenger flows plays a key role in resource allocation, network planning, and frequency setting. However, it remains challenging to recognize high fluctuations, nonlinearity, and periodicity of bus passenger flows due to varied destinations and departure times. For this reason, a novel forecasting model named as affinity propagation-based support vector regression (AP-SVR) is proposed based on clustering and nonlinear simulation. For the addressed approach, a clustering algorithm is first used to generate clustering-based intervals. A support vector regression (SVR) is then exploited to forecast the passenger flow for each cluster, with the use of particle swarm optimization (PSO) for obtaining the optimized parameters. Finally, the prediction results of the SVR are rearranged by chronological order rearrangement. The proposed model is tested using real bus passenger data from a bus line over four months. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model performs better than other peer models in terms of absolute percentage error and mean absolute percentage error. It is recommended that the deterministic clustering technique with stable cluster results (AP) can improve the forecasting performance significantly.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio