Geospatial-based data and knowledge driven approaches for burglary crime susceptibility mapping in urban areas

The Damansara-Penchala region in Malaysia, is well-known for its high frequency of burglary crime and monetary loss based on the 2011-2016 geospatial burglary data provided by the Polis Diraja Malaysia (PDRM). As such, in order to have a better understanding of the components which influenced the burglary crime incidences in this area, this research aims at developing a geospatial-based burglary crime susceptibility mapping in this urban area. The spatial indicator maps was developed from the burglary data, census data and building footprint data. The initial phase of research focused on the development of the spatial indicators that influence the susceptibility of building towards the burglary crime. The indicators that formed the variable of susceptibility were first enlisted from the literature review. They were later narrowed down to the 18 indicators that were marked as important via the interview sessions with police officers and burglars. The burglary susceptibility mapping was done based on data-driven and knowledge-driven approaches. The data-driven burglary susceptibility maps were developed using bivariate statistics approach of Information Value Modelling (IVM), machine learning approach of Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Meanwhile, the knowledge-driven burglary susceptibility maps were developed using Relative Vulnerability Index (RVI) based on the input from experts. In order to obtain the best results, different parameter settings and indicators manipulation were established in the susceptibility modelling process. Both susceptibility modelling approaches were compared and validated with the same independent validation dataset using several accuracy assessment approaches of Area Under Curve - Receiver Operator Characteristic (AUC-ROC curve) and correlation matrix of True Positive and True Negative. The matrix is used to calculate the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of the models. The performance of ANN and SVM were found to be close to one another with a sensitivity of 91.74% and 88.46%, respectively. However, in terms of specificity, SVM had a higher percentage than ANN at 57.59% and 40.46% respectively. In addition, the error term in classifying high frequency burglary building was also included as part of the measurements in order to decide on the best method. By comparing both classification results with the validation data, it was found that the ANN method has successfully classified buildings with high frequency of burglary cases to the high susceptibility class with no error at all, thus, proving it to be the best method. Meanwhile, the output from IVM had a very moderate percentage of sensitivity and specificity at 54.56% and 46.42% respectively. On the contrary, the knowledge-driven susceptibility map had a high percentage of sensitivity (86.51%) but a very low percentage of specificity (16.4%) which making it the least accurate model as it was not able to classify the high susceptible area correctly as compared to other modelling approaches. In conclusion, the results have indicated that the 18 indicators used in this research could be employed to successfully map the burglary susceptibility in the study area. Furthermore, it was also found that residential areas within the vicinity of Brickfields, Bangsar Baru, Hartamas and Bukit Pantai are consistent to be classified as high susceptible areas, meanwhile areas of Jalan Duta and Taman Tunku are both identified as the least susceptible areas across the modelling methods

Environmental design, crime and vulnerability : a case study of Wentworth.

Thesis (M.Soc.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, 2013.Apartheid environmental design and planning was aimed at controlling people rather than emphasising safety and security. This resulted in disadvantaged townships becoming conducive to crime and other social problems. In order to address this problem emphasis has been placed on the role of planning and design of the environment in reducing crime. Thus, the Crime Prevention through Environmental Design (CPTED) model has been suggested as one way of reducing crime and managing the physical environment. The model contends that reducing and preventing actual and perceived crime will improve the quality of life of residents and create quality living environments. This study examined the relationship between crime and planning and design in the Wentworth community, situated in the South Durban Basin of Kwa-Zulu Natal, South Africa. A key question was, how the design and planning of the physical environment could directly influence an increase or decrease in safety and vulnerability in Wentworth. This study found residents were aware of crime in the community and did not feel safe. Crime and victimisation was associated with areas that exhibited poor planning and design. In addition, crime hotspots were concentrated around these areas. An analysis of the specific planning and design problems within the Wentworth, indicates that modifying the environment using various design measures will reduce crime and vulnerability. Residents' responses regarding the use of the various CPTED principles to address crime were positive. Local government is tasked with implementing the model in the community, yet only a few projects have actually incorporated it. While officials contend that they are actively engaging in crime prevention, residents' believed that not enough is being done to lower crime, and improve the quality of life. A key issue is that besides crime practitioners, planners are also central to implementing the CPTED model, as it incorporates planning and design. However, lack of cooperation between these individuals has resulted in planners unknowingly using the model in urban renewal and regeneration projects. While this reflects the innovative use of the model, it also highlights the limited use of CPTED in targeted crime prevention initiatives. However, a positive outcome of this use is that even though urban renewal and regeneration projects aim to create quality environments, and not directly influence crime, by virtue of using CPTED, they are also indirectly influencing a decrease in criminality and fear