Dynamic robust duality in utility maximization

A celebrated financial application of convex duality theory gives an explicit relation between the following two quantities: (i) The optimal terminal wealth $X^*(T) : = X_{\varphi^*}(T)$ of the problem to maximize the expected $U$-utility of the terminal wealth $X_{\varphi}(T)$ generated by admissible portfolios $\varphi(t), 0 \leq t \leq T$ in a market with the risky asset price process modeled as a semimartingale; (ii) The optimal scenario $\frac{dQ^*}{dP}$ of the dual problem to minimize the expected $V$-value of $\frac{dQ}{dP}$ over a family of equivalent local martingale measures $Q$, where $V$ is the convex conjugate function of the concave function $U$. In this paper we consider markets modeled by It\^o-L\'evy processes. In the first part we use the maximum principle in stochastic control theory to extend the above relation to a \emph{dynamic} relation, valid for all $t \in [0,T]$. We prove in particular that the optimal adjoint process for the primal problem coincides with the optimal density process, and that the optimal adjoint process for the dual problem coincides with the optimal wealth process, $0 \leq t \leq T$. In the terminal time case $t=T$ we recover the classical duality connection above. We get moreover an explicit relation between the optimal portfolio $\varphi^*$ and the optimal measure $Q^*$. We also obtain that the existence of an optimal scenario is equivalent to the replicability of a related $T$-claim. In the second part we present robust (model uncertainty) versions of the optimization problems in (i) and (ii), and we prove a similar dynamic relation between them. In particular, we show how to get from the solution of one of the problems to the other. We illustrate the results with explicit examples

Performance analysis and optimal selection of large mean-variance portfolios under estimation risk

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of assets remains comparable in magnitude to the sample size, we provide a characterization of the estimation risk by providing deterministic equivalents of the portfolio out-of-sample performance in terms of the underlying investment scenario. The previous estimates represent a means of quantifying the amount of risk underestimation and return overestimation of improved portfolio constructions beyond standard ones. Well-known for the latter, if not corrected, these deviations lead to inaccurate and overly optimistic Sharpe-based investment decisions. Our results are based on recent contributions in the field of random matrix theory. Along with the asymptotic analysis, the analytical framework allows us to find bias corrections improving on the achieved out-of-sample performance of typical portfolio constructions. Some numerical simulations validate our theoretical findings

Horizon-unbiased Investment with Ambiguity

In the presence of ambiguity on the driving force of market randomness, we consider the dynamic portfolio choice without any predetermined investment horizon. The investment criteria is formulated as a robust forward performance process, reflecting an investor's dynamic preference. We show that the market risk premium and the utility risk premium jointly determine the investors' trading direction and the worst-case scenarios of the risky asset's mean return and volatility. The closed-form formulas for the optimal investment strategies are given in the special settings of the CRRA preference