A system dynamics approach for modelling a lead-market-based export potential

For knowledge-intensive goods, foreign trade performance also depends on the quality of the technology. Important factors to consider are technological capa-bilities, various market factors which influence the chances of a country devel-oping a lead-market position, innovation-friendly regulation and the existence of internationally competitive complementary industry clusters. In order to model these aspects, various feedback mechanisms between these factors have to be taken into account, among them knowledge spillovers from the export success which lead to an erosion of a lead-market position over time. A system dynam-ics framework is used for a first implementation of a simulation model for wind energy technology exports from Germany. The empirical results show the ex-pected dynamics of the system and underline the importance of the various feedback loops. --Renewable energy technologies,exports,first-mover advantage,lead markets

Optimal Control of R & D Investment in a Techno-Metabolic System

The nonlinear model of economic growth involving production, technology stock and their rates is considered. Two trends - growth and decline, in interaction between production and R&D investment are examined in the balance dynamics. The optimal control problem of R&D investment is studied for the balance dynamics and discounted utility function of consumption index. Pontryagin's optimality principle is applied for designing optimal nonlinear dynamics. The existence and uniqueness result is proved for the saddle type equilibrium and the convergence property of optimal trajectories is shown. Quasioptimal feedbacks of the rational type for balancing the dynamical system are proposed. Growth properties of production rate, R&D intensity and technology intensity are examined on generated trajectories. In the test example explicit formulas for the optimal feedback and the value function are obtained

Modeling for insights not numbers: The long-term low-carbon transformation

Limiting global warming to prevent dangerous climate change requires drastically reducing global greenhouse gases emissions and a transformation towards a low-carbon society. Existing energy- and climate-economic modeling approaches that are informing policy and decision makers in shaping the future net-zero emissions society are increasingly seen with skepticism regarding their ability to forecast the long-term evolution of highly complex, nonlinear social-ecological systems. We present a structured review of state-of-the-art modeling approaches, focusing on their ability and limitations to develop and assess pathways towards a low-carbon society. We find that existing methodological approaches have some fundamental deficiencies that limit their potential to understand the subtleties of long-term low-carbon transformation processes. We suggest that a useful methodological framework has to move beyond current state of the art techniques and has to simultaneously fulfill the following requirements: (1) representation of an inherent dynamic analysis, describing and investigating explicitly the path between different states of system variables, (2) specification of details in the energy cascade, in particular the central role of functionalities and services that are provided by the interaction of energy flows and corresponding stock variables, (3) reliance on a clear distinction between structures of the sociotechnical energy system and socioeconomic mechanisms to develop it and (4) ability to evaluate pathways along societal criteria. To that end we propose the development of a versatile multi-purpose integrated modeling framework, building on the specific strengths of the various modeling approaches available while at the same time omitting their weaknesses. This paper identifies respective strengths and weaknesses to guide such development

Some General Regularities of Techno-Economic Evolution

One of the most exciting phenomena of the modern world is the fundamentally homogeneous direction of the overall techno-economic development trajectory in practically all regions of the world. The existing economic systems in different countries are collapsing one after another under the pressure of an expanding industrial culture and are becoming drawn into the international division of labor. Simultaneously, their economic development is influenced by the general regularities of the world techno-economic system, the rhythm of which is set by the industrially developed countries. These general regularities of long-term techno-economic development, invariant under different sociopolitical systems, are the subject of this chapter

Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges

After nearly two decades of debate and fundamental disagreement, topdown and bottom-up energy-economy modelers, sometimes referred to as modeling ‘tribes', began to engage in productive dialogue in the mid-1990s (IPCC 2001). From this methodological conversation have emerged modeling approaches that offer a hybrid of the two perspectives. Yet, while individual publications over the past decade have described efforts at hybrid modeling, there has not as yet been a systematic assessment of their prospects and challenges. To this end, several research teams that explore hybrid modeling held a workshop in Paris on April 20–21, 2005 to share and compare the strategies and techniques that each has applied to the development of hybrid modeling. This special issue provides the results of the workshop and of follow-up efforts between different researchers to exchange ideas.climat ; modeling

Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum

The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2 \ub0C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation <5% likely against a current policies backdrop and, counterintuitively, foresees that intracoalition leakage risks may severely compromise sector-specific, demand-side action. DPE further enables policies to interact endogenously, demonstrated here by the PPCA’s path-dependence to COVID-19 recovery investments

Modelling the socio-political feasibility of energy transition with system dynamics

A system dynamics model of energy transition, TEMPEST, represents political and societal factors along with energy, emissions and mitigation measures, within a system of feedbacks. TEMPEST simulates energy transition from 1980 to 2080, calibrated to UK historical data. An exogenous uncertainty analysis showed most cases would achieve net zero before 2080, but only 20% would stay within the required carbon budget. Low probability, high impact cases have twice the future cumulative emissions than the best cases. High political capital for energy transition early on would likely reduce total mitigation required, but risks public pushback. Endogenous uncertainty about pushback and new measure difficulty could increase total emissions by a quarter. Dealing with unwanted feedbacks between society and government that reduce political capital will require responsive policy making. The socio-political feasibility of achieving the UK's net zero target is likely less than the techno-economic feasibility estimated through standard energy systems models