Foundational principles for large scale inference: Illustrations through correlation mining

When can reliable inference be drawn in the "Big Data" context? This paper presents a framework for answering this fundamental question in the context of correlation mining, with implications for general large scale inference. In large scale data applications like genomics, connectomics, and eco-informatics the dataset is often variable-rich but sample-starved: a regime where the number $n$ of acquired samples (statistical replicates) is far fewer than the number $p$ of observed variables (genes, neurons, voxels, or chemical constituents). Much of recent work has focused on understanding the computational complexity of proposed methods for "Big Data." Sample complexity however has received relatively less attention, especially in the setting when the sample size $n$ is fixed, and the dimension $p$ grows without bound. To address this gap, we develop a unified statistical framework that explicitly quantifies the sample complexity of various inferential tasks. Sampling regimes can be divided into several categories: 1) the classical asymptotic regime where the variable dimension is fixed and the sample size goes to infinity; 2) the mixed asymptotic regime where both variable dimension and sample size go to infinity at comparable rates; 3) the purely high dimensional asymptotic regime where the variable dimension goes to infinity and the sample size is fixed. Each regime has its niche but only the latter regime applies to exa-scale data dimension. We illustrate this high dimensional framework for the problem of correlation mining, where it is the matrix of pairwise and partial correlations among the variables that are of interest. We demonstrate various regimes of correlation mining based on the unifying perspective of high dimensional learning rates and sample complexity for different structured covariance models and different inference tasks

Counterfactual Risk Minimization: Learning from Logged Bandit Feedback

We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. These constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method -- called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM) -- for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. POEM is evaluated on several multi-label classification problems showing substantially improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art.Comment: 10 page

Mining gold from implicit models to improve likelihood-free inference

Simulators often provide the best description of real-world phenomena. However, they also lead to challenging inverse problems because the density they implicitly define is often intractable. We present a new suite of simulation-based inference techniques that go beyond the traditional Approximate Bayesian Computation approach, which struggles in a high-dimensional setting, and extend methods that use surrogate models based on neural networks. We show that additional information, such as the joint likelihood ratio and the joint score, can often be extracted from simulators and used to augment the training data for these surrogate models. Finally, we demonstrate that these new techniques are more sample efficient and provide higher-fidelity inference than traditional methods.Comment: Code available at https://github.com/johannbrehmer/simulator-mining-example . v2: Fixed typos. v3: Expanded discussion, added Lotka-Volterra example. v4: Improved clarit

A review of domain adaptation without target labels

Domain adaptation has become a prominent problem setting in machine learning and related fields. This review asks the question: how can a classifier learn from a source domain and generalize to a target domain? We present a categorization of approaches, divided into, what we refer to as, sample-based, feature-based and inference-based methods. Sample-based methods focus on weighting individual observations during training based on their importance to the target domain. Feature-based methods revolve around on mapping, projecting and representing features such that a source classifier performs well on the target domain and inference-based methods incorporate adaptation into the parameter estimation procedure, for instance through constraints on the optimization procedure. Additionally, we review a number of conditions that allow for formulating bounds on the cross-domain generalization error. Our categorization highlights recurring ideas and raises questions important to further research.Comment: 20 pages, 5 figure