Aggregation for Gaussian regression

This paper studies statistical aggregation procedures in the regression setting. A motivating factor is the existence of many different methods of estimation, leading to possibly competing estimators. We consider here three different types of aggregation: model selection (MS) aggregation, convex (C) aggregation and linear (L) aggregation. The objective of (MS) is to select the optimal single estimator from the list; that of (C) is to select the optimal convex combination of the given estimators; and that of (L) is to select the optimal linear combination of the given estimators. We are interested in evaluating the rates of convergence of the excess risks of the estimators obtained by these procedures. Our approach is motivated by recently published minimax results [Nemirovski, A. (2000). Topics in non-parametric statistics. Lectures on Probability Theory and Statistics (Saint-Flour, 1998). Lecture Notes in Math. 1738 85--277. Springer, Berlin; Tsybakov, A. B. (2003). Optimal rates of aggregation. Learning Theory and Kernel Machines. Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 2777 303--313. Springer, Heidelberg]. There exist competing aggregation procedures achieving optimal convergence rates for each of the (MS), (C) and (L) cases separately. Since these procedures are not directly comparable with each other, we suggest an alternative solution. We prove that all three optimal rates, as well as those for the newly introduced (S) aggregation (subset selection), are nearly achieved via a single ``universal'' aggregation procedure. The procedure consists of mixing the initial estimators with weights obtained by penalized least squares. Two different penalties are considered: one of them is of the BIC type, the second one is a data-dependent $\ell_1$-type penalty.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000001587 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Optimality in self-organized molecular sorting

We introduce a simple physical picture to explain the process of molecular sorting, whereby specific proteins are concentrated and distilled into submicrometric lipid vesicles in eukaryotic cells. To this purpose, we formulate a model based on the coupling of spontaneous molecular aggregation with vesicle nucleation. Its implications are studied by means of a phenomenological theory describing the diffusion of molecules towards multiple sorting centers that grow due to molecule absorption and are extracted when they reach a sufficiently large size. The predictions of the theory are compared with numerical simulations of a lattice-gas realization of the model and with experimental observations. The efficiency of the distillation process is found to be optimal for intermediate aggregation rates, where the density of sorted molecules is minimal and the process obeys simple scaling laws. Quantitative measures of endocytic sorting performed in primary endothelial cells are compatible with the hypothesis that these optimal conditions are realized in living cells

Adaptive Minimax Estimation over Sparse lq-Hulls

Given a dictionary of Mn initial estimates of the unknown true regression function, we aim to construct linearly aggregated estimators that target the best performance among all the linear combinations under a sparse q-norm (0 ≤ q ≤ 1) constraint on the linear coefficients. Besides identifying the optimal rates of aggregation for these `q-aggregation problems, our multi-directional (or universal) aggregation strategies by model mixing or model selection achieve the optimal rates simultaneously over the full range of 0 ≤ q ≤ 1 for general Mn and upper bound tn of the q-norm. Both random and fixed designs, with known or unknown error variance, are handled, and the `q-aggregations examined in this work cover major types of aggregation problems previously studied in the literature. Consequences on minimax-rate adaptive regression under `q-constrained true coefficients (0 ≤ q ≤ 1) are also provided

On time-consistent equilibrium stopping under aggregation of diverse discount rates

This paper studies the central planner's decision making on behalf of a group of members with diverse discount rates. In the context of optimal stopping, we work with a smooth aggregation preference to incorporate all heterogeneous discount rates with an attitude function that reflects the aggregation rule in the same spirit of ambiguity aversion in the smooth ambiguity preference proposed in Klibanoff et al.(2005). The optimal stopping problem renders to be time inconsistent, for which we develop an iterative approach using consistent planning and characterize all time-consistent equilibria as fixed points of an operator in the setting of one-dimensional diffusion processes. We provide some sufficient conditions on both the underlying models and the attitude function such that the smallest equilibrium attains the optimal equilibrium in which the attitude function becomes equivalent to the linear aggregation rule as of diversity neutral. When the sufficient condition of the attitude function is violated, we can illustrate by various examples that the characterization of the optimal equilibrium may differ significantly from some existing results for an individual agent, which now sensitively depends on the attitude function and the diversity distribution of discount rates

Welfare Impacts of Agricultural and Non-Agricultural Trade Reforms

The variability of protection rates within sectors is frequently particularly high in agriculture relative to non-agriculture. Standard aggregation procedures ignore the variability within sectors, and underweight the importance of highly protected sectors. It therefore seems likely that they underestimate the potential benefits of agricultural trade reform relative to non-agricultural reform. This study examines this question using a new procedure for aggregating trade distortions. It finds that the key impact of using better aggregators is to increase the benefits of both agricultural and non-agricultural reform. It finds that using optimal aggregation procedures increases the measured importance of agricultural trade reform relative to non-agricultural reform from a very high initial level, but only by around two percentage points.agricultural trade, nonagricultural trade, trade distortions, tariffs, aggregation, World Trade Organization, WTO, trade reform, Food Security and Poverty, International Relations/Trade, F13, F14, Q13, Q17, Q18,

Sparse PCA: Optimal rates and adaptive estimation

Principal component analysis (PCA) is one of the most commonly used statistical procedures with a wide range of applications. This paper considers both minimax and adaptive estimation of the principal subspace in the high dimensional setting. Under mild technical conditions, we first establish the optimal rates of convergence for estimating the principal subspace which are sharp with respect to all the parameters, thus providing a complete characterization of the difficulty of the estimation problem in term of the convergence rate. The lower bound is obtained by calculating the local metric entropy and an application of Fano's lemma. The rate optimal estimator is constructed using aggregation, which, however, might not be computationally feasible. We then introduce an adaptive procedure for estimating the principal subspace which is fully data driven and can be computed efficiently. It is shown that the estimator attains the optimal rates of convergence simultaneously over a large collection of the parameter spaces. A key idea in our construction is a reduction scheme which reduces the sparse PCA problem to a high-dimensional multivariate regression problem. This method is potentially also useful for other related problems.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOS1178 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

A Test Between Unemployment Theories Using Matching Data

This paper tests whether aggregate matching is consistent with unemployment being mainly due to search frictions or due to job queues. Using U.K. data and correcting for temporal aggregation bias, estimates of the random matching function are consistent with previous work in this field, but random matching is formally rejected by the data. The data instead support 'stock-flow' matching. Estimates find that around 40 per cent of newly unemployed workers match quickly - they are interpreted as being on the short-side of their skill markets. The remaining workers match slowly, their re-employment rates depending statistically on the inflow of new vacancies and not on the vacancy stock. Having failed to match with existing vacancies, these workers wait for the arrival of new job vacancies. The results have important policy implications, particularly with reference to the design of optimal unemployment insurance programs.Matching, Unemployment, Temporal aggregation