Artificial intelligence and UK national security: Policy considerations

RUSI was commissioned by GCHQ to conduct an independent research study into the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for national security purposes. The aim of this project is to establish an independent evidence base to inform future policy development regarding national security uses of AI. The findings are based on in-depth consultation with stakeholders from across the UK national security community, law enforcement agencies, private sector companies, academic and legal experts, and civil society representatives. This was complemented by a targeted review of existing literature on the topic of AI and national security. The research has found that AI offers numerous opportunities for the UK national security community to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing processes. AI methods can rapidly derive insights from large, disparate datasets and identify connections that would otherwise go unnoticed by human operators. However, in the context of national security and the powers given to UK intelligence agencies, use of AI could give rise to additional privacy and human rights considerations which would need to be assessed within the existing legal and regulatory framework. For this reason, enhanced policy and guidance is needed to ensure the privacy and human rights implications of national security uses of AI are reviewed on an ongoing basis as new analysis methods are applied to data

Increasing resilience of ATM networks using traffic monitoring and automated anomaly analysis

Systematic network monitoring can be the cornerstone for the dependable operation of safety-critical distributed systems. In this paper, we present our vision for informed anomaly detection through network monitoring and resilience measurements to increase the operators' visibility of ATM communication networks. We raise the question of how to determine the optimal level of automation in this safety-critical context, and we present a novel passive network monitoring system that can reveal network utilisation trends and traffic patterns in diverse timescales. Using network measurements, we derive resilience metrics and visualisations to enhance the operators' knowledge of the network and traffic behaviour, and allow for network planning and provisioning based on informed what-if analysis

Malware in the Future? Forecasting of Analyst Detection of Cyber Events

There have been extensive efforts in government, academia, and industry to anticipate, forecast, and mitigate cyber attacks. A common approach is time-series forecasting of cyber attacks based on data from network telescopes, honeypots, and automated intrusion detection/prevention systems. This research has uncovered key insights such as systematicity in cyber attacks. Here, we propose an alternate perspective of this problem by performing forecasting of attacks that are analyst-detected and -verified occurrences of malware. We call these instances of malware cyber event data. Specifically, our dataset was analyst-detected incidents from a large operational Computer Security Service Provider (CSSP) for the U.S. Department of Defense, which rarely relies only on automated systems. Our data set consists of weekly counts of cyber events over approximately seven years. Since all cyber events were validated by analysts, our dataset is unlikely to have false positives which are often endemic in other sources of data. Further, the higher-quality data could be used for a number for resource allocation, estimation of security resources, and the development of effective risk-management strategies. We used a Bayesian State Space Model for forecasting and found that events one week ahead could be predicted. To quantify bursts, we used a Markov model. Our findings of systematicity in analyst-detected cyber attacks are consistent with previous work using other sources. The advanced information provided by a forecast may help with threat awareness by providing a probable value and range for future cyber events one week ahead. Other potential applications for cyber event forecasting include proactive allocation of resources and capabilities for cyber defense (e.g., analyst staffing and sensor configuration) in CSSPs. Enhanced threat awareness may improve cybersecurity.Comment: Revised version resubmitted to journa

A survey on online monitoring approaches of computer-based systems

This report surveys forms of online data collection that are in current use (as well as being the subject of research to adapt them to changing technology and demands), and can be used as inputs to assessment of dependability and resilience, although they are not primarily meant for this use

A framework for cost-sensitive automated selection of intrusion response

In recent years, cost-sensitive intrusion response has gained significant interest due to its emphasis on the balance between potential damage incurred by the intrusion and cost of the response. However, one of the challenges in applying this approach is defining a consistent and adaptable measurement framework to evaluate the expected benefit of a response. In this thesis we present a model and framework for the cost-sensitive assessment and selection of intrusion response. Specifically, we introduce a set of measurements that characterize the potential costs associated with the intrusion handling process, and propose an intrusion response evaluation method with respect to the risk of potential intrusion damage, the effectiveness of the response action and the response cost for a system. The proposed framework has the important quality of abstracting the system security policy from the response selection mechanism, permitting policy adjustments to be made without changes to the model. We provide an implementation of the proposed solution as an IDS-independent plugin tool, and demonstrate its advantages over traditional static response systems and an existing dynamic response system