Heavy weather: climate and the Australian Defence Force

This report argues that the downstream implications of climate change are forcing Defence to become involved in mitigation and response tasks. Defence’s workload here will increase, so we need a new approach. Heavy Weather makes a number of recommendations including: Defence should work with the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet and the Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency to establish an interagency working group on climate change and security. It would focus on addressing climate event scenarios for Australia and the Asia–Pacific  to manage the risks those scenarios pose to national resilience and regional stability.  Defence should appoint an adviser to the Chief of the Defence Force on climate issues to develop a Responding to Climate Change Plan that details how Defence will manage the effects of climate change on its operations and infrastructure. Defence should audit its environmental data to determine its relevance for climate scientists and systematically make that data publicly available. It should set up an energy audit team to see where energy efficiencies can be achieved in Defence. Australia should work with like-minded countries in the ‘Five Eyes’ community to share best practice and thinking on how military organisations should best respond to extreme weather events.   The recommendations aren’t about Defence having a ‘green’ view of the world: they’re about the ADF being well placed to deal with the potential disruptive forces of climate change

Open Science meets Food Modelling: Introducing the Food Modelling Journal (FMJ)

This Editorial describes the rationale, focus, scope and technology behind the newly launched, open access, innovative Food Modelling Journal (FMJ). The Journal is designed to publish those outputs of the research cycle that usually precede the publication of the research article, but have their own value and re-usability potential. Such outputs are methods, models, software and data. The Food Modelling Journal is launched by the AGINFRA+ community and is integrated with the AGINFRA+ Virtual Research Environment (VRE) to facilitate and streamline the authoring, peer review and publication of the manuscripts via the ARPHA Publishing Platform

Synthesis of Optimal Enterprise Networks between Bio-refinery and Petroleum Refinery

The production of transportation fuels from the conversion of biomass into gasoline and diesel in a bio-refinery is an attractive, clean, carbon neutral and sustainable process. The economics of standalone bio-refinery can be improved via integration with an existing petroleum refinery, whereby bio-refinery intermediates can be upgraded using the existing petroleum refinery infrastructure. The current literature considered only limited materials integration between bio-refinery and petroleum refinery. In this work, an efficient mathematical modeling approach for synthesizing optimum enterprise networks between bio-refinery and petroleum refinery is proposed for the utilization of materials and hydrogen across the enterprise

Mathematical modelling of the transmission of salmonella between pigs

Strathclyde theses - ask staff. Thesis no. : T13167Salmonella spp. are the second most common cause of foodborne illness in the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). Pigs are relatively more likely to be infected with Salmonella spp. compared to other species of livestock. A recent EFSA survey isolated Salmonella from 21.2% of lymph node samples. Given the high prevalence of Salmonella infection in pigs, with a serotype of human health signi cance, pig meat is thought to be the third most important contributor to Salmonella infection in humans, behind poultry meat and eggs (EFSA, 2006). This has prompted the EU to set targets for reduction of Salmonella spp. in slaughter-age pigs and breeding pigs, which are due to come into force in the next 1-2 years. For reductions in the prevalence of Salmonella infection in live pigs, intervention at the farm level (be it at the sow or pig level) will be required. Current evidence for the e ect of farm level interventions such as the use of organic acids in feed/water or vaccination is scarce, as experimental or observational studies are expensive and so studies thus far have been small. Hence, the relevance of these limited and small studies is limited when interpreting the results for the development of a National Control Plan for Salmonella in pigs, therefore mathematical modelling studies are useful to assess the e ectiveness of on-farm interventions in reducing the burden of human salmonellosis. This thesis presents a number of determinsitic and stochastic models on the subject of Salmonella introduction/transmission between pigs, progressing from a simple determinstic SIR model of grower- nisher production to a detailed stochastic model incoproating all stages of production and considering the source of infection. The dynamics of infection in the deterministic models was similar. With current parameter estimation, infection was self-sustaining in pen populations across the models, whether there were 1 or 300 pens. Stability analysis of each of the models suggested that the homogeneous infected steady state would be the result of at least one infected pig entering the herd. Travelling wave analysis of the multipen models suggested that the speed of transmission between pens, via faecal-oral transmission, was relatively slow, such that infection would probably be limited to a few pens by the time pigs were sent to slaughter. Very different dynamics were observed for the stochastic models, where stochastic fade-out was the most common result from infection entering a herd.;The models developed in this thesis allow an insight into the complex dynamics of transmission and intervention on pig farms, which is currently not possible through observational study due to the large number of variables that must be controlled. The nal model incorporates several advancements in the eld of Salmonella in pig transmission modelling that have not been considered before (e.g. the explicit inclusion of the magnitude of (intermittent and variable) shedding, farm management systems and sources of infection). These advances highlight new and interesting dynamics, suggesting that the sow is by far the most important source of infection of pigs. In particular, the level of Salmonella shedding of individual pigs/sows appears to be crucial to the dynamics of infection, but this has not been captured before. This seems a fairly intuitive conclusion, given that Salmonella is mainly transmitted via the faecal-oral route and is dose-dependent. However, it is not normally captured in models because of the complexity of doing so, and the lack of data to parameterise such a model. In the case of Salmonella in pigs, when dealing with various sources, complex management systems and highly variable shedding rates, then the inclusion of shedding dynamics at a more detailed level appears warranted, as the dynamics change markedly according to whether it is included or not. In conclusion, this thesis has established a set of models for the investigation of the introduction, transmission and intervention of Salmonella in pigs. The final model suggests that the sow is a major source of infection, and hence intervention should rst and foremost be introduced to the breeding herd. However, decreasing the resistance of the weaner/ nisher pig to infection, and conducting All-In-All-Out production, would lessen the transmission of infection between pigs during later stages of production. The final model has already been used to inform the development of the UK National Control Plan (to investigate the accuracy of several sampling schemes and as an input for Cost-Benefit Analysis), and research will continue to improve the assumptions and parameter estimation of the model.Salmonella spp. are the second most common cause of foodborne illness in the United Kingdom (UK) and the European Union (EU). Pigs are relatively more likely to be infected with Salmonella spp. compared to other species of livestock. A recent EFSA survey isolated Salmonella from 21.2% of lymph node samples. Given the high prevalence of Salmonella infection in pigs, with a serotype of human health signi cance, pig meat is thought to be the third most important contributor to Salmonella infection in humans, behind poultry meat and eggs (EFSA, 2006). This has prompted the EU to set targets for reduction of Salmonella spp. in slaughter-age pigs and breeding pigs, which are due to come into force in the next 1-2 years. For reductions in the prevalence of Salmonella infection in live pigs, intervention at the farm level (be it at the sow or pig level) will be required. Current evidence for the e ect of farm level interventions such as the use of organic acids in feed/water or vaccination is scarce, as experimental or observational studies are expensive and so studies thus far have been small. Hence, the relevance of these limited and small studies is limited when interpreting the results for the development of a National Control Plan for Salmonella in pigs, therefore mathematical modelling studies are useful to assess the e ectiveness of on-farm interventions in reducing the burden of human salmonellosis. This thesis presents a number of determinsitic and stochastic models on the subject of Salmonella introduction/transmission between pigs, progressing from a simple determinstic SIR model of grower- nisher production to a detailed stochastic model incoproating all stages of production and considering the source of infection. The dynamics of infection in the deterministic models was similar. With current parameter estimation, infection was self-sustaining in pen populations across the models, whether there were 1 or 300 pens. Stability analysis of each of the models suggested that the homogeneous infected steady state would be the result of at least one infected pig entering the herd. Travelling wave analysis of the multipen models suggested that the speed of transmission between pens, via faecal-oral transmission, was relatively slow, such that infection would probably be limited to a few pens by the time pigs were sent to slaughter. Very different dynamics were observed for the stochastic models, where stochastic fade-out was the most common result from infection entering a herd.;The models developed in this thesis allow an insight into the complex dynamics of transmission and intervention on pig farms, which is currently not possible through observational study due to the large number of variables that must be controlled. The nal model incorporates several advancements in the eld of Salmonella in pig transmission modelling that have not been considered before (e.g. the explicit inclusion of the magnitude of (intermittent and variable) shedding, farm management systems and sources of infection). These advances highlight new and interesting dynamics, suggesting that the sow is by far the most important source of infection of pigs. In particular, the level of Salmonella shedding of individual pigs/sows appears to be crucial to the dynamics of infection, but this has not been captured before. This seems a fairly intuitive conclusion, given that Salmonella is mainly transmitted via the faecal-oral route and is dose-dependent. However, it is not normally captured in models because of the complexity of doing so, and the lack of data to parameterise such a model. In the case of Salmonella in pigs, when dealing with various sources, complex management systems and highly variable shedding rates, then the inclusion of shedding dynamics at a more detailed level appears warranted, as the dynamics change markedly according to whether it is included or not. In conclusion, this thesis has established a set of models for the investigation of the introduction, transmission and intervention of Salmonella in pigs. The final model suggests that the sow is a major source of infection, and hence intervention should rst and foremost be introduced to the breeding herd. However, decreasing the resistance of the weaner/ nisher pig to infection, and conducting All-In-All-Out production, would lessen the transmission of infection between pigs during later stages of production. The final model has already been used to inform the development of the UK National Control Plan (to investigate the accuracy of several sampling schemes and as an input for Cost-Benefit Analysis), and research will continue to improve the assumptions and parameter estimation of the model

Participatory research in complex marine conservation settings: A review of recent trends and lessons for the future

The conservation of marine ecosystems and species is inherently complex, plagued by social, political, economic and ecological uncertainty. Navigating these challenges to sustain marine systems requires the understanding, consideration and uptake of multiple knowledge systems within decision-making processes. Participatory research approaches, such as knowledge co-production, are advocated given their potential to generate knowledge with those who are most affected by the issue at hand and, based on that knowledge, develop and implement meaningful conservation practices collaboratively. In doing so participatory research is positioned to make marine research more democratic and impactful, and as such, has been a field of growing research enquiry. The aim of this study, therefore, is to synthesise (via a systematic scoping review) the existing literature to generate guidance that can help researchers and practitioners plan and apply participatory research approaches in a complex marine context. Results from systematically identifying and analyzing 337 articles show that the implementation of participatory research approaches are most common in the global north. Participatory research approaches most frequently included representatives from government, industry and civil society (e.g. community groups), while indigenous groups and communities were rarely included. A diversity of participatory research approaches have been used in relation to marine conservation in different settings and at various stages of the participatory process, each with their own challenges and benefits, that can lead to either positive outcomes for actors (e.g. social learning) or negative outcomes (e.g. disempowerment). We draw on our findings to provide guidance for improving the implementation of participatory research approaches in marine conservation such as taking the time to understand context before commencing participatory research approaches, and ensuring transparency with all actors throughout the process. We highlight key implications for researcher and practitioners implementing participatory research approaches including the importance of a diversity of approaches and methods to ensure access, supporting two way communication, addressing power imbalances, and the need to recognise, report on and address pre-existing barriers. Many of these require greater investment in terms of money or personnel, and new funding models are needed with a focus on longevity and sustainability

Using communication technologies to deliver public health agendas in National Health Service food and drink automated vending

This research responded to a National Health Service (NHS) wide problem. The problem is how to create healthier automated food and drink vending services. The research’s’ interpretation of this central research problem is embedded in the Facilities Management (FM) perspective. Vending retail products do not support government healthy lifestyle policies and initiatives. FMs have to change this through catering contracts. However, there is little guidance on how to design, evidence and operationalise improvement. The research tested vending point of sale designs over a year, trying to reduce the sale of unhealthy products. Secondly, it developed a novel application of a nutritional profile to enable the service design process and evidence change. Thirdly, the research baselined service level information through survey n=1,292. Night shift staff were a key stakeholder as it was thought that vending was their only retail catering and the impact was unknown. Regression modelling and multivariate analysis was used in the survey and design tests. Linear regression was used to understand the impact of vending point of sale design on sales. Logistic regression was used to test service level perceptions in the survey. The statistical methods used were flexible. The survey design and analysis is widely applicable to evaluate many services. The research found that in combination, changing product ranges, adding nutritional labels, and moving water to eye level significantly reduces unhealthy sales. However real change requires healthier vending products. The nutritional profile adapted is highly suitable to standardise service and evaluate how healthy vending products really are. The survey was a novel and statistically robust addition to FM service evaluation. It proved staff perception of poor catering, inadequate breaks, innutritious food and need for staff food education. Vending was central. Finally, making meaningful service improvements and setting thresholds in the statistical models confidently required in depth first-hand knowledge

Diagnostic strategies to enhance testing for hepatitis C virus infection

Background: Simplified and affordable HCV diagnostic pathways that incorporate innovative collection and testing methods are required to globally scale up HCV elimination efforts. This is especially applicable among highly marginalised populations. Aims: The aim of this research was to evaluate the performance of emerging diagnostic technologies with novel sample types such as dried blood spots (DBS) and finger-stick samples in clinical and decentralised settings. The specific aims include 1) Assessing performance of the Aptima HCV Quant Dx real-time assay for HCV RNA detection using DBS (from a laboratory and cohort collected population), 2) Evaluating performance of HCV core antigen (HCVcAg) detection in plasma and DBS, and 3) Performing a systematic review of point-of-care and DBS HCV RNA testing. Methods: In Chapter Two, HCV RNA detection from retrospective paired plasma and laboratory spotted DBS was compared on the Aptima assay. The same evaluation was performed in Chapter Three, however paired finger-stick capillary DBS and venepuncture collected samples obtained through the LiveRlife study (observational cohort study) were tested. In Chapter Four, detection of HCVcAg from plasma and DBS samples (LiveRlife study) was evaluated on the ARCHITECT-i2000R analyser. For Chapters Two, Three and Four data were analysed for assay sensitivity, specificity, bias and agreement and participant characteristics (Chapters Three and Four only) using statistical methods including paired T-test, Deming correlation, Bland-Altman, data distribution and summary statistics. In Chapter Five, bibliographic databases and conference presentations were searched for eligible studies. Meta-analysis was used to pool estimates. Key Findings: Laboratory spotted and clinically collected DBS samples tested on the Aptima assay displayed good sensitivity, specificity, and correlation to plasma for the detection of HCV RNA. HCVcAg testing in plasma may be an affordable tool for determining active HCV infection with the potential to reflex test from a positive anti-HCV antibody result. HCVcAg DBS testing showed lower sensitivity but may be suitable for screening high-risk populations in countries with medium to high (1.5-3.5% and >3.5%) HCV prevalence. Results from our systematic review showed excellent diagnostic performance among assays that detect HCV RNA from finger-stick whole blood and DBS samples. However, the proportion of invalid results following Xpert HCV Viral Load Finger-stick testing highlights the importance of operator training and quality assurance programs. Conclusion: Novel collection and testing methods, including DBS and finger-stick point-of-care are suitable diagnostic alternatives to standard pathology testing. A targeted testing approach that considers the setting and population could facilitate enhanced HCV testing, linkage to care and treatment