Psychological and Institutional Forces and the Determination of Exchange Rates

Neoclassical economists have, by their own admission, had a terrible time explaining foreign- currency prices. Not only have they been unable to develop models that explain the past time series of foreign exchange rates with any regularity but their premises lead to conclusions about the character of the market that are inconsistent with many of its salient features. Mainstream approaches cannot, for example, account for exchange rate volatility, nonrational expectations, or the popularity of technical analysis. It is my contention that neoclassicists’ failure can be traced in large part to their assumption that economic behavior is independent of social, psychological, and cultural influences and is instead driven by rational and presumably natural free market impulses. The purpose of this paper is to show that an explanation of exchange rate determination that places the activity in its psychosocial context yields results superior to those of one based on traditional neoclassical principles. In particular, it will be shown that if agents’ behavior is modeled as being a function of their socialization in the capitalist system (and subsequent molding within the subculture of portfolio investors) and if their forecasting and decision-making processes are assumed to be driven by the same factors as theorized by psychologists (rather than economists), then the picture that emerges is one wherein bandwagon effects are common, periods of volatility are to be expected, and predictions can contain persistent bias.exchange rates, pyschology, social, institutionalist

Psychological and Institutional Forces and the Determination of Exchange Rates

Neoclassical economists have, by their own admission, had a terrible time explaining foreign- currency prices. Not only have they been unable to develop models that explain the past time series of foreign exchange rates with any regularity but their premises lead to conclusions about the character of the market that are inconsistent with many of its salient features. Mainstream approaches cannot, for example, account for exchange rate volatility, nonrational expectations, or the popularity of technical analysis. It is my contention that neoclassicists’ failure can be traced in large part to their assumption that economic behavior is independent of social, psychological, and cultural influences and is instead driven by rational and presumably natural free market impulses. The purpose of this paper is to show that an explanation of exchange rate determination that places the activity in its psychosocial context yields results superior to those of one based on traditional neoclassical principles. In particular, it will be shown that if agents’ behavior is modeled as being a function of their socialization in the capitalist system (and subsequent molding within the subculture of portfolio investors) and if their forecasting and decision-making processes are assumed to be driven by the same factors as theorized by psychologists (rather than economists), then the picture that emerges is one wherein bandwagon effects are common, periods of volatility are to be expected, and predictions can contain persistent bias.exchange rates, pyschology, social, institutionalist

Gauging Support for Innovative Farmland Preservation Techniques

This paper describes four innovative farmland preservation techniques and gauges support through interviews of key stakeholders: program administrators, lawmakers, and landowners. Four techniques were selected for assessment from approximately 30 novel techniques: rights of first refusal; term conservation easements; land preservation tontines; and agricultural conservation pension. Rights of first refusal was the most favored, although respondents thought effective implementation would need targeting of land and a dedicated funding source. Agricultural conservation pension was also viewed favorably, although considered administratively difficult to implement. Tontines were perceived to be an interesting concept, but confusing, difficult to implement, and ill-defined. Term easements were viewed unfavorably because they did not preserve land permanently.Land Economics/Use,

Eroding Confidentiality in Delinquency Proceedings: Should Schools and Public Housing Authorities Be Notified?

In this Article, Professor Henning examines how schools and public housing authorities obtain juvenile records and explains how these institutions may use the records to exclude children and their families from the basic benefits of education and housing. Drawing on recent research in the field of developmental psychology, Professor Henning reevaluates early assumptions about adolescents\u27 amenability to treatment and the impact of stigma on children and explores the practical implications of sharing records with schools and public housing authorities, questioning whether new confidentiality exceptions actually will yield the expected benefits of improved public safety. She concludes that legislators should deny public housing authorities access to juvenile records but allow schools limited access to records through a series of school liaisons. These liaisons should attempt to accommodate, on a case-by-case basis, the often competing values of preserving safety in schools while enabling the rehabilitation of children in the juvenile justice system

The adjustment mechanism: theory and problems

Foreign exchange rates ; International trade ; Econometric models

An empirical analysis of the impacts of government policies on private housing prices in Hong Kong

Thesis (B.Sc)--University of Hong Kong, 2005.published_or_final_versio

The Theorem of Proportionality in Mainstream Capital Theory: An Assessment of its Conceptual Foundations

It is ascertained that the theorem of proportionality, which maintains that replacement investment is a constant proportion of the outstanding capital stock, has several fundamental shortcomings. It derives from a model founded on assumptions that are highly restrictive and unlikely to hold in reality. It is alien to the thinking of researchers in industrial organization and other neighboring fields to economics that treat the durability of capital goods as a choice variable. It ignores several thorny conceptual and methodological issues and, perhaps most important, it may have restrained seriously the progress towards developing models based on more realistic approaches of production. However, despite its shortcomings, the theorem continues to dominate mainstream capital theory, most probably because of: a) its simplicity, and b) the lack of a model that might yield a better theorem in terms of standard criteria, like explanatory and predictive power, simplicity, fruitfulness, etc. For this reason attention is drawn to recent research which shows that a model centered on the heterogeneous structure of capital and the useful lives of its components is both feasible and exceedingly rich in theoretical and empirical implications.Capital longevity, replacement, depreciation, scrappage, maintenance, utilization, obsolescence.

An empirical study of the major determinants of industrial property prices in Hong Kong

Thesis (B.Sc)--University of Hong Kong, 2006.published_or_final_versio

Winding Down the Atlantic Philanthropies: 2009-2010: Beginning the End Game

Reviews late-term program planning, including envisioning the end of the foundation and translating that vision into concrete plans. Examines challenges and opportunities for final grantmaking in the Population Health and Children and Youth programs