Towards A Theory-Of-Mind-Inspired Generic Decision-Making Framework

Simulation is widely used to make model-based predictions, but few approaches have attempted this technique in dynamic physical environments of medium to high complexity or in general contexts. After an introduction to the cognitive science concepts from which this work is inspired and the current development in the use of simulation as a decision-making technique, we propose a generic framework based on theory of mind, which allows an agent to reason and perform actions using multiple simulations of automatically created or externally inputted models of the perceived environment. A description of a partial implementation is given, which aims to solve a popular game within the IJCAI2013 AIBirds contest. Results of our approach are presented, in comparison with the competition benchmark. Finally, future developments regarding the framework are discussed.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures, IJCAI 2013 Symposium on AI in Angry Bird

A COMMODITY MARKET SIMULATION GAME FOR TEACHING MARKET RISK MANAGEMENT

The Market Risk Game is a computerized simulation game available for IBM PC and Apple II microcomputers that is designed to give realistic practice in making decisions in a risky market environment. It illustrates the use of hedging and put options to reduce risk in livestock and grain markets. It is best suited for individuals who have a basic understanding of commodity trading, but who need experience to solidify their knowledge to a functional level. Through the game this is done without facing the risk of an actual investment or requiring the time involved in watching a market over an extended period.Risk and Uncertainty,

From individual characters to large crowds: augmenting the believability of open-world games through exploring social emotion in pedestrian groups

Crowds of non-player characters improve the game-play experiences of open-world video-games. Grouping is a common phenomenon of crowds and plays an important role in crowd behaviour. Recent crowd simulation research focuses on group modelling in pedestrian crowds and game-designers have argued that the design of non-player characters should capture and exploit the relationship between characters. The concepts of social groups and inter-character relationships are not new in social psychology, and on-going work addresses the social life of emotions and its behavioural consequences on individuals and groups alike. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of current research in social psychology, and to use the findings as a source of inspiration to design a social network of non-player characters, with application to the problem of group modelling in simulated crowds in computer games

Using a Cognitive Architecture for Opponent Target Prediction

One of the most important aspects of a compelling game AI is that it anticipates the player’s actions and responds to them in a convincing manner. The first step towards doing this is to understand what the player is doing and predict their possible future actions. In this paper we show an approach where the AI system focusses on testing hypotheses made about the player’s actions using an implementation of a cognitive architecture inspired by the simulation theory of mind. The application used in this paper is to predict the target that the player is heading towards, in an RTS-style game. We improve the prediction accuracy and reduce the number of hypotheses needed by using path planning and path clustering

Demand Forecasting: Evidence-based Methods

We looked at evidence from comparative empirical studies to identify methods that can be useful for predicting demand in various situations and to warn against methods that should not be used. In general, use structured methods and avoid intuition, unstructured meetings, focus groups, and data mining. In situations where there are sufficient data, use quantitative methods including extrapolation, quantitative analogies, rule-based forecasting, and causal methods. Otherwise, use methods that structure judgement including surveys of intentions and expectations, judgmental bootstrapping, structured analogies, and simulated interaction. Managers' domain knowledge should be incorporated into statistical forecasts. Methods for combining forecasts, including Delphi and prediction markets, improve accuracy. We provide guidelines for the effective use of forecasts, including such procedures as scenarios. Few organizations use many of the methods described in this paper. Thus, there are opportunities to improve efficiency by adopting these forecasting practices.Accuracy, expertise, forecasting, judgement, marketing.

Detecting and Forecasting Economic Regimes in Multi-Agent Automated Exchanges

We show how an autonomous agent can use observable market conditions to characterize the microeconomic situation of the market and predict future market trends. The agent can use this information to make both tactical decisions, such as pricing, and strategic decisions, such as product mix and production planning. We develop methods to learn dominant market conditions, such as over-supply or scarcity, from historical data using Gaussian mixture models to construct price density functions. We discuss how this model can be combined with real-time observable information to identify the current dominant market condition and to forecast market changes over a planning horizon. We forecast market changes via both a Markov correction-prediction process and an exponential smoother. Empirical analysis shows that the exponential smoother yields more accurate predictions for the current and the next day (supporting tactical decisions), while the Markov correction-prediction process is better for longer term predictions (supporting strategic decisions). Our approach offers more flexibility than traditional regression based approaches, since it does not assume a fixed functional relationship between dependent and independent variables. We validate our methods by presenting experimental results in a case study, the Trading Agent Competition for Supply Chain Management.dynamic pricing;machine learning;market forecasting;Trading agents