On the Statistics and Predictability of Go-Arounds

This paper takes an empirical approach to identify operational factors at busy airports that may predate go-around maneuvers. Using four years of data from San Francisco International Airport, we begin our investigation with a statistical approach to investigate which features of airborne, ground operations (e.g., number of inbound aircraft, number of aircraft taxiing from gate, etc.) or weather are most likely to fluctuate, relative to nominal operations, in the minutes immediately preceding a missed approach. We analyze these findings both in terms of their implication on current airport operations and discuss how the antecedent factors may affect NextGen. Finally, as a means to assist air traffic controllers, we draw upon techniques from the machine learning community to develop a preliminary alert system for go-around prediction.United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Grant NNX08AY52A)

On the Statistics and Predictability of Go-Arounds

This paper takes an empirical approach to identify operational factors at busy airports that may predate go-around maneuvers. Using four years of data from San Francisco International Airport, we begin our investigation with a statistical approach to investigate which features of airborne, ground operations (e.g., number of inbound aircraft, number of aircraft taxiing from gate, etc.) or weather are most likely to fluctuate, relative to nominal operations, in the minutes immediately preceding a missed approach. We analyze these findings both in terms of their implication on current airport operations and discuss how the antecedent factors may affect NextGen. Finally, as a means to assist air traffic controllers, we draw upon techniques from the machine learning community to develop a preliminary alert system for go-around prediction.Comment: 10 pages, 14 figures, Submitted to USA/Europe ATM Seminar 201

Predicting airplane go-arounds using machine learning and open-source data

Go-arounds (GAs) are standard air traffic control procedures during which aircraft approach a runway but do not land. The incidence of a GA can subsequently affect the workload of flight crews and air traffic controllers, and might impact an airport runway’s throughput capacity. In this study, two different modeling methods for predicting the occurrence of GAs based on open-source Automatic Dependent Surveillance–Broadcast (ADS-B) and meteorological data are presented. A macroscopic model quantifies the probability of a GA within the next hour for an airport by applying a generalized additive model. A microscopic model employs a number of machine learning classifiers on trajectories of aircraft on approach in order to predict if a GA will be performed. Even though the results of the macroscopic model are promising, the information currently available to predict the probability of a GA is not detailed enough to achieve satisfactory predictions. Similarly, the microscopic model is capable of predicting 50% of all GAs, with false positive rate below 7%. Despite the limitations of the quality of the results, the authors are convinced that both modeling methods can be inspiring to other researchers and provide useful insights into the airport system under scrutiny