Modeling and estimation of multi-source clustering in crime and security data

While the presence of clustering in crime and security event data is well established, the mechanism(s) by which clustering arises is not fully understood. Both contagion models and history independent correlation models are applied, but not simultaneously. In an attempt to disentangle contagion from other types of correlation, we consider a Hawkes process with background rate driven by a log Gaussian Cox process. Our inference methodology is an efficient Metropolis adjusted Langevin algorithm for filtering of the intensity and estimation of the model parameters. We apply the methodology to property and violent crime data from Chicago, terrorist attack data from Northern Ireland and Israel, and civilian casualty data from Iraq. For each data set we quantify the uncertainty in the levels of contagion vs. history independent correlation.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOAS647 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Great Expectations and Hard Times — The (Nontrivial) Impact of Education on Domestic Terrorism

This contribution investigates the role of education in domestic terrorism for 133 countries between 1984 and 2007. The findings point at a nontrivial effect of education on terrorism. Lower education (primary education) tends to promote terrorism in a cluster of countries where the socioeconomic, political and demographic conditions are unfavorable, while higher education (university education) reduces terrorism in a cluster of countries where conditions are more favorable. This suggests that country-specific circumstances mediate the effect of education on the (opportunity) costs and benefits of terrorism. For instance, the prevalence of poor structural conditions in combination with advances in education may explain past and present waves of terrorism and political instability in the Middle East. The results of this study imply that promoting education needs to be accompanied by sound structural change so that it can positively interact with (individual and social) development, thereby reducing terrorism.terrorism, education, negative binomial regression, revolution, conflict resolution

The changing nature of risk and risk management: the challenge of borders, uncertainty and resilience

No abstract available

The Global Risks Report 2016, 11th Edition

Now in its 11th edition, The Global Risks Report 2016 draws attention to ways that global risks could evolve and interact in the next decade. The year 2016 marks a forceful departure from past findings, as the risks about which the Report has been warning over the past decade are starting to manifest themselves in new, sometimes unexpected ways and harm people, institutions and economies. Warming climate is likely to raise this year's temperature to 1° Celsius above the pre-industrial era, 60 million people, equivalent to the world's 24th largest country and largest number in recent history, are forcibly displaced, and crimes in cyberspace cost the global economy an estimated US$445 billion, higher than many economies' national incomes. In this context, the Reportcalls for action to build resilience – the "resilience imperative" – and identifies practical examples of how it could be done.The Report also steps back and explores how emerging global risks and major trends, such as climate change, the rise of cyber dependence and income and wealth disparity are impacting already-strained societies by highlighting three clusters of risks as Risks in Focus. As resilience building is helped by the ability to analyse global risks from the perspective of specific stakeholders, the Report also analyses the significance of global risks to the business community at a regional and country-level

Potential Terrorist Uses of Highway-Borne Hazardous Materials, MTI Report 09-03

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has requested that the Mineta Transportation Institutes National Transportation Security Center of Excellence (MTI NTSCOE) provide any research it has or insights it can provide on the security risks created by the highway transportation of hazardous materials. This request was submitted to MTI/NSTC as a National Transportation Security Center of Excellence. In response, MTI/NTSC reviewed and revised research performed in 2007 and 2008 and assembled a small team of terrorism and emergency-response experts, led by Center Director Brian Michael Jenkins, to report on the risks of terrorists using highway shipments of flammable liquids (e.g., gasoline tankers) to cause casualties anywhere, and ways to reduce those risks. This report has been provided to DHS. The teams first focus was on surface transportation targets, including highway infrastructure, and also public transportation stations. As a full understanding of these materials, and their use against various targets became revealed, the team shifted with urgency to the far more plentiful targets outside of surface transportation where people gather and can be killed or injured. However, the team is concerned to return to the top of the use of these materials against public transit stations and recommends it as a separate subject for urgent research

Designing and Operating Safe and Secure Transit Systems: Assessing Current Practices in the United States and Abroad, MTI Report 04-05

Public transit systems around the world have for decades served as a principal venue for terrorist acts. Today, transit security is widely viewed as an important public policy issue and is a high priority at most large transit systems and at smaller systems operating in large metropolitan areas. Research on transit security in the United States has mushroomed since 9/11; this study is part of that new wave of research. This study contributes to our understanding of transit security by (1) reviewing and synthesizing nearly all previously published research on transit terrorism; (2) conducting detailed case studies of transit systems in London, Madrid, New York, Paris, Tokyo, and Washington, D.C.; (3) interviewing federal officials here in the United States responsible for overseeing transit security and transit industry representatives both here and abroad to learn about efforts to coordinate and finance transit security planning; and (4) surveying 113 of the largest transit operators in the United States. Our major findings include: (1) the threat of transit terrorism is probably not universal—most major attacks in the developed world have been on the largest systems in the largest cities; (2) this asymmetry of risk does not square with fiscal politics that seek to spread security funding among many jurisdictions; (3) transit managers are struggling to balance the costs and (uncertain) benefits of increased security against the costs and (certain) benefits of attracting passengers; (4) coordination and cooperation between security and transit agencies is improving, but far from complete; (5) enlisting passengers in surveillance has benefits, but fearful passengers may stop using public transit; (6) the role of crime prevention through environmental design in security planning is waxing; and (7) given the uncertain effectiveness of antitransit terrorism efforts, the most tangible benefits of increased attention to and spending on transit security may be a reduction in transit-related person and property crimes

A Survey of the Economics of Security

This report assesses the literature on the inter-relations between the economy and security with particular focus on terrorism and the "human drivers of insecurity" to identify both available knowledge and crucial research gaps. In addition, the report surveys the European research capacity in the field of security economics. The study is based on a thorough literature survey of the newly emerging field of security economics, using a variety of electronic catalogues and search engines as sources. The study reveals that it is not just terror attacks but also security measures of private and public agents responding to the threat of terrorism that incur significant repercussions for the economy, often with trans-national consequences. Impacts vary with the maturity of an economy; appropriate ex ante and ex post policies are critical to contain the damage of terrorism. Given the dynamic nature of human-induced insecurity, policies should place emphasis on "systemic resilience". Gaps in the economic security literature include insufficient knowledge of the behaviour of terrorists and their targets. Furthermore, the global impacts of terror attacks and especially of security measures require more analysis. Future research requires a more rigorous conceptual framework, methodological improvements and, above all, better data. In comparison to the United States, the current research capacity in security economics in Europe is weak. On the one hand, there is significant research potential in the field of security economics within the European Union in the shape of several high quality researchers. On the other hand, the existing research infrastructure and institutional barriers both inhibit this potential from being developed academically and for policy advice. Establishing a European network of security economists and funding a European centre for security economics could contribute to remedy this situation.

Artificial intelligence and UK national security: Policy considerations

RUSI was commissioned by GCHQ to conduct an independent research study into the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for national security purposes. The aim of this project is to establish an independent evidence base to inform future policy development regarding national security uses of AI. The findings are based on in-depth consultation with stakeholders from across the UK national security community, law enforcement agencies, private sector companies, academic and legal experts, and civil society representatives. This was complemented by a targeted review of existing literature on the topic of AI and national security. The research has found that AI offers numerous opportunities for the UK national security community to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing processes. AI methods can rapidly derive insights from large, disparate datasets and identify connections that would otherwise go unnoticed by human operators. However, in the context of national security and the powers given to UK intelligence agencies, use of AI could give rise to additional privacy and human rights considerations which would need to be assessed within the existing legal and regulatory framework. For this reason, enhanced policy and guidance is needed to ensure the privacy and human rights implications of national security uses of AI are reviewed on an ongoing basis as new analysis methods are applied to data