On the Metric-Based Approximate Minimization of Markov Chains

We address the behavioral metric-based approximate minimization problem of Markov Chains (MCs), i.e., given a finite MC and a positive integer k, we are interested in finding a k-state MC of minimal distance to the original. By considering as metric the bisimilarity distance of Desharnais at al., we show that optimal approximations always exist; show that the problem can be solved as a bilinear program; and prove that its threshold problem is in PSPACE and NP-hard. Finally, we present an approach inspired by expectation maximization techniques that provides suboptimal solutions. Experiments suggest that our method gives a practical approach that outperforms the bilinear program implementation run on state-of-the-art bilinear solvers

Data Assimilation: A Mathematical Introduction

These notes provide a systematic mathematical treatment of the subject of data assimilation

Reduction of Markov Chains using a Value-of-Information-Based Approach

In this paper, we propose an approach to obtain reduced-order models of Markov chains. Our approach is composed of two information-theoretic processes. The first is a means of comparing pairs of stationary chains on different state spaces, which is done via the negative Kullback-Leibler divergence defined on a model joint space. Model reduction is achieved by solving a value-of-information criterion with respect to this divergence. Optimizing the criterion leads to a probabilistic partitioning of the states in the high-order Markov chain. A single free parameter that emerges through the optimization process dictates both the partition uncertainty and the number of state groups. We provide a data-driven means of choosing the `optimal' value of this free parameter, which sidesteps needing to a priori know the number of state groups in an arbitrary chain.Comment: Submitted to Entrop

Optimal Kullback-Leibler Aggregation via Information Bottleneck

In this paper, we present a method for reducing a regular, discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC) to another DTMC with a given, typically much smaller number of states. The cost of reduction is defined as the Kullback-Leibler divergence rate between a projection of the original process through a partition function and a DTMC on the correspondingly partitioned state space. Finding the reduced model with minimal cost is computationally expensive, as it requires an exhaustive search among all state space partitions, and an exact evaluation of the reduction cost for each candidate partition. Our approach deals with the latter problem by minimizing an upper bound on the reduction cost instead of minimizing the exact cost; The proposed upper bound is easy to compute and it is tight if the original chain is lumpable with respect to the partition. Then, we express the problem in the form of information bottleneck optimization, and propose using the agglomerative information bottleneck algorithm for searching a sub-optimal partition greedily, rather than exhaustively. The theory is illustrated with examples and one application scenario in the context of modeling bio-molecular interactions.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure

Computing Probabilistic Bisimilarity Distances for Probabilistic Automata

The probabilistic bisimilarity distance of Deng et al. has been proposed as a robust quantitative generalization of Segala and Lynch's probabilistic bisimilarity for probabilistic automata. In this paper, we present a characterization of the bisimilarity distance as the solution of a simple stochastic game. The characterization gives us an algorithm to compute the distances by applying Condon's simple policy iteration on these games. The correctness of Condon's approach, however, relies on the assumption that the games are stopping. Our games may be non-stopping in general, yet we are able to prove termination for this extended class of games. Already other algorithms have been proposed in the literature to compute these distances, with complexity in $\textbf{UP} \cap \textbf{coUP}$ and \textbf{PPAD}. Despite the theoretical relevance, these algorithms are inefficient in practice. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first practical solution. The characterization of the probabilistic bisimilarity distance mentioned above crucially uses a dual presentation of the Hausdorff distance due to M\'emoli. As an additional contribution, in this paper we show that M\'emoli's result can be used also to prove that the bisimilarity distance bounds the difference in the maximal (or minimal) probability of two states to satisfying arbitrary $\omega$-regular properties, expressed, eg., as LTL formulas

Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation

These notes are designed with the aim of providing a clear and concise introduction to the subjects of Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation, and their inter-relations, together with citations to some relevant literature in this area. The first half of the notes is dedicated to studying the Bayesian framework for inverse problems. Techniques such as importance sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are introduced; these methods have the desirable property that in the limit of an infinite number of samples they reproduce the full posterior distribution. Since it is often computationally intensive to implement these methods, especially in high dimensional problems, approximate techniques such as approximating the posterior by a Dirac or a Gaussian distribution are discussed. The second half of the notes cover data assimilation. This refers to a particular class of inverse problems in which the unknown parameter is the initial condition of a dynamical system, and in the stochastic dynamics case the subsequent states of the system, and the data comprises partial and noisy observations of that (possibly stochastic) dynamical system. We will also demonstrate that methods developed in data assimilation may be employed to study generic inverse problems, by introducing an artificial time to generate a sequence of probability measures interpolating from the prior to the posterior