7,628 research outputs found
On the Metric-Based Approximate Minimization of Markov Chains
We address the behavioral metric-based approximate minimization problem of Markov Chains (MCs), i.e., given a finite MC and a positive integer k, we are interested in finding a k-state MC of minimal distance to the original. By considering as metric the bisimilarity distance of Desharnais at al., we show that optimal approximations always exist; show that the problem can be solved as a bilinear program; and prove that its threshold problem is in PSPACE and NP-hard. Finally, we present an approach inspired by expectation maximization techniques that provides suboptimal solutions. Experiments suggest that our method gives a practical approach that outperforms the bilinear program implementation run on state-of-the-art bilinear solvers
Reduction of Markov Chains using a Value-of-Information-Based Approach
In this paper, we propose an approach to obtain reduced-order models of
Markov chains. Our approach is composed of two information-theoretic processes.
The first is a means of comparing pairs of stationary chains on different state
spaces, which is done via the negative Kullback-Leibler divergence defined on a
model joint space. Model reduction is achieved by solving a
value-of-information criterion with respect to this divergence. Optimizing the
criterion leads to a probabilistic partitioning of the states in the high-order
Markov chain. A single free parameter that emerges through the optimization
process dictates both the partition uncertainty and the number of state groups.
We provide a data-driven means of choosing the `optimal' value of this free
parameter, which sidesteps needing to a priori know the number of state groups
in an arbitrary chain.Comment: Submitted to Entrop
Data Assimilation: A Mathematical Introduction
These notes provide a systematic mathematical treatment of the subject of
data assimilation
Optimal Kullback-Leibler Aggregation via Information Bottleneck
In this paper, we present a method for reducing a regular, discrete-time
Markov chain (DTMC) to another DTMC with a given, typically much smaller number
of states. The cost of reduction is defined as the Kullback-Leibler divergence
rate between a projection of the original process through a partition function
and a DTMC on the correspondingly partitioned state space. Finding the reduced
model with minimal cost is computationally expensive, as it requires an
exhaustive search among all state space partitions, and an exact evaluation of
the reduction cost for each candidate partition. Our approach deals with the
latter problem by minimizing an upper bound on the reduction cost instead of
minimizing the exact cost; The proposed upper bound is easy to compute and it
is tight if the original chain is lumpable with respect to the partition. Then,
we express the problem in the form of information bottleneck optimization, and
propose using the agglomerative information bottleneck algorithm for searching
a sub-optimal partition greedily, rather than exhaustively. The theory is
illustrated with examples and one application scenario in the context of
modeling bio-molecular interactions.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figure
Computing Probabilistic Bisimilarity Distances for Probabilistic Automata
The probabilistic bisimilarity distance of Deng et al. has been proposed as a
robust quantitative generalization of Segala and Lynch's probabilistic
bisimilarity for probabilistic automata. In this paper, we present a
characterization of the bisimilarity distance as the solution of a simple
stochastic game. The characterization gives us an algorithm to compute the
distances by applying Condon's simple policy iteration on these games. The
correctness of Condon's approach, however, relies on the assumption that the
games are stopping. Our games may be non-stopping in general, yet we are able
to prove termination for this extended class of games. Already other algorithms
have been proposed in the literature to compute these distances, with
complexity in and \textbf{PPAD}. Despite the
theoretical relevance, these algorithms are inefficient in practice. To the
best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first practical solution.
The characterization of the probabilistic bisimilarity distance mentioned
above crucially uses a dual presentation of the Hausdorff distance due to
M\'emoli. As an additional contribution, in this paper we show that M\'emoli's
result can be used also to prove that the bisimilarity distance bounds the
difference in the maximal (or minimal) probability of two states to satisfying
arbitrary -regular properties, expressed, eg., as LTL formulas
Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation
These notes are designed with the aim of providing a clear and concise
introduction to the subjects of Inverse Problems and Data Assimilation, and
their inter-relations, together with citations to some relevant literature in
this area. The first half of the notes is dedicated to studying the Bayesian
framework for inverse problems. Techniques such as importance sampling and
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are introduced; these methods have the
desirable property that in the limit of an infinite number of samples they
reproduce the full posterior distribution. Since it is often computationally
intensive to implement these methods, especially in high dimensional problems,
approximate techniques such as approximating the posterior by a Dirac or a
Gaussian distribution are discussed. The second half of the notes cover data
assimilation. This refers to a particular class of inverse problems in which
the unknown parameter is the initial condition of a dynamical system, and in
the stochastic dynamics case the subsequent states of the system, and the data
comprises partial and noisy observations of that (possibly stochastic)
dynamical system. We will also demonstrate that methods developed in data
assimilation may be employed to study generic inverse problems, by introducing
an artificial time to generate a sequence of probability measures interpolating
from the prior to the posterior
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