Forecasting audience increase on YouTube

User profiles constructed on Social Web platforms are often motivated by the need to maximise user reputation within a community. Subscriber, or follower, counts are an indicator of the influence and standing that the user has, where greater values indicate a greater perception or regard for what the user has to say or share. However, at present there lacks an understanding of the factors that lead to an increase in such audience levels, and how a user’s behaviour can a!ect their reputation. In this paper we attempt to fill this gap, by examining data collected from YouTube over regular time intervals. We explore the correlation between the subscriber counts and several behaviour features - extracted from both the user’s profile and the content they have shared. Through the use of a Multiple Linear Regression model we are able to forecast the audience levels that users will yield based on observed behaviour. Combining such a model with an exhaustive feature selection process, we yield statistically significant performance over a baseline model containing all features

Forecasting Popularity of Videos using Social Media

This paper presents a systematic online prediction method (Social-Forecast) that is capable to accurately forecast the popularity of videos promoted by social media. Social-Forecast explicitly considers the dynamically changing and evolving propagation patterns of videos in social media when making popularity forecasts, thereby being situation and context aware. Social-Forecast aims to maximize the forecast reward, which is defined as a tradeoff between the popularity prediction accuracy and the timeliness with which a prediction is issued. The forecasting is performed online and requires no training phase or a priori knowledge. We analytically bound the prediction performance loss of Social-Forecast as compared to that obtained by an omniscient oracle and prove that the bound is sublinear in the number of video arrivals, thereby guaranteeing its short-term performance as well as its asymptotic convergence to the optimal performance. In addition, we conduct extensive experiments using real-world data traces collected from the videos shared in RenRen, one of the largest online social networks in China. These experiments show that our proposed method outperforms existing view-based approaches for popularity prediction (which are not context-aware) by more than 30% in terms of prediction rewards

TagBook: A Semantic Video Representation without Supervision for Event Detection

We consider the problem of event detection in video for scenarios where only few, or even zero examples are available for training. For this challenging setting, the prevailing solutions in the literature rely on a semantic video representation obtained from thousands of pre-trained concept detectors. Different from existing work, we propose a new semantic video representation that is based on freely available social tagged videos only, without the need for training any intermediate concept detectors. We introduce a simple algorithm that propagates tags from a video's nearest neighbors, similar in spirit to the ones used for image retrieval, but redesign it for video event detection by including video source set refinement and varying the video tag assignment. We call our approach TagBook and study its construction, descriptiveness and detection performance on the TRECVID 2013 and 2014 multimedia event detection datasets and the Columbia Consumer Video dataset. Despite its simple nature, the proposed TagBook video representation is remarkably effective for few-example and zero-example event detection, even outperforming very recent state-of-the-art alternatives building on supervised representations.Comment: accepted for publication as a regular paper in the IEEE Transactions on Multimedi

A Data-Driven Approach for Tag Refinement and Localization in Web Videos

Tagging of visual content is becoming more and more widespread as web-based services and social networks have popularized tagging functionalities among their users. These user-generated tags are used to ease browsing and exploration of media collections, e.g. using tag clouds, or to retrieve multimedia content. However, not all media are equally tagged by users. Using the current systems is easy to tag a single photo, and even tagging a part of a photo, like a face, has become common in sites like Flickr and Facebook. On the other hand, tagging a video sequence is more complicated and time consuming, so that users just tag the overall content of a video. In this paper we present a method for automatic video annotation that increases the number of tags originally provided by users, and localizes them temporally, associating tags to keyframes. Our approach exploits collective knowledge embedded in user-generated tags and web sources, and visual similarity of keyframes and images uploaded to social sites like YouTube and Flickr, as well as web sources like Google and Bing. Given a keyframe, our method is able to select on the fly from these visual sources the training exemplars that should be the most relevant for this test sample, and proceeds to transfer labels across similar images. Compared to existing video tagging approaches that require training classifiers for each tag, our system has few parameters, is easy to implement and can deal with an open vocabulary scenario. We demonstrate the approach on tag refinement and localization on DUT-WEBV, a large dataset of web videos, and show state-of-the-art results.Comment: Preprint submitted to Computer Vision and Image Understanding (CVIU