Discrete analysis of dividend payments in a non-life insurance portfolio

The process of free reserves in a non-life insurance portfolio as defined in the classical model of risk theory is modified by the introduction of dividend policies that set maximum levels for the accumulation of reserves. The first part of the work formulates the quantification of the dividend payments via the expectation of their current value under different hypotheses. The second part presents a solution based on a system of linear equations for discrete dividend payments in the case of a constant dividend barrier, illustrated by solving a specific case.dividend policies, expected present value

Depositor liquidity and loss-sharing in bank failure resolutions

Bank failures are widely feared for a number of reasons, including concern that depositors may suffer both losses in the value of their deposits (credit losses) and, possibly more importantly, restrictions in access to their deposits (liquidity losses). In the United States, this is not true for insured deposits, which are fully protected and made available to the depositor almost immediately. But both problems may occur for uninsured depositors. Thus, there is pressure on regulators to protect all depositors in bank failures. This is likely to increase both moral hazard risk-taking by banks and poor agency behavior by regulators with large ultimate costs to taxpayers. While ways of reducing the credit loss in bank failures have been widely examined, reducing liquidity losses has received far less attention. One way to mitigate this loss to uninsured depositors is to make the estimated recovery value of their deposits quickly available to them upon failure of the bank through an advance dividend or other payment by the FDIC secured by the bank's assets. Quick depositor access was suggested as a superior solution to deposit insurance in alleviating adverse effects from bank failures during the debate on deposit insurance in the early 1900s and was actually put into effect by both the Reconstruction Finance Corporation and the New York State Banking Department shortly before the establishment of the FDIC. More recently, the FDIC has experimented with the concept. This paper analyzes the pros and cons of providing quick depositor access to deposits at failed banks and reviews the history of the concept. It concludes that such a policy would greatly enhance the FDIC's ability to resolve large bank insolvencies without having to protect uninsured depositors through too-big-to-fail policies.Liquidity (Economics) ; Bank deposits ; Bank failures

Credit Spreads and Incomplete Information

A new model is presented which produces credit spreads that do not converge to zero for short maturities. Our set-up includes incomplete, i.e., delayed and asymmetric information. When the financial market observes the company's earnings with a delay, the effect on both default policy and credit spreads is negligible, compared to the Leland (1994) model. When information is asymmetrically distributed between the management of the company and the financial market, short credit spreads do not converge to zero. This is result is similar to the Duffie and Lando (2001) model, although our simpler model improves some limitations in their set-up. Short interest rates from our model are used to illustrate effects similar to the dry-up in the interbank market experienced after the summer of 2007.Credit risk; credit spreads; delayed information; asymmetric information

Taxation under Uncertainty – Problems of Dynamic Programming and Contingent Claims Analysis in Real Option Theory

This article deals with the integration of taxes into real option-based investment models under risk neutrality and risk averison. It compares the possible approaches dynamic programming and contingent claims analysis to analyze their effects on the optimal investment rules before and after taxes. It can be shown that despite their different assumptions, dynamic programming and contingent claims analysis yield identical investment thresholds under risk neutrality. In contrast, under risk aversion, there are severe problems in determining an adequate risk-adjusted discount rate. The application of contingent claims analysis is restricted to cases with a dividend rate unaffected by risk. Therefore, only dynamic programming permits an explicit investment threshold without taxation. After taxes, both approaches fail to reach general solutions. Nevertheless, using a sufficient condition, it is possible to derive neutral tax systems under risk aversion as is demonstrated by using dynamic programming.

Information, Inflation, and Interest

We propose a class of discrete-time stochastic models for the pricing of inflation-linked assets. The paper begins with an axiomatic scheme for asset pricing and interest rate theory in a discrete-time setting. The first axiom introduces a "risk-free" asset, and the second axiom determines the intertemporal pricing relations that hold for dividend-paying assets. The nominal and real pricing kernels, in terms of which the price index can be expressed, are then modelled by introducing a Sidrauski-type utility function depending on (a) the aggregate rate of consumption, and (b) the aggregate rate of real liquidity benefit conferred by the money supply. Consumption and money supply policies are chosen such that the expected joint utility obtained over a specified time horizon is maximised subject to a budget constraint that takes into account the "value" of the liquidity benefit associated with the money supply. For any choice of the bivariate utility function, the resulting model determines a relation between the rate of consumption, the price level, and the money supply. The model also produces explicit expressions for the real and nominal pricing kernels, and hence establishes a basis for the valuation of inflation-linked securities

On pricing kernels, information and risk

We discuss the finding that cross-sectional characteristic based models have yielded portfolios with higher excess monthly returns but lower risk than their arbitrage pricing theory counterparts in an analysis of equity returns of stocks listed on the JSE. Under the assumption of general no-arbitrage conditions, we argue that evidence in favour of characteristic based pricing implies that information is more likely assimilated by means of nonlinear pricing kernels for the markets considered.Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures, 1 tabl

Do Banks provision for bad loans in good times? empirical evidence and policy implications

Recent debate about the pro-cyclical effects of bank capital requirements, has ignored the important role that bank loan loss provisions play in the overall framework of minimum capital regulation. It is frequently observed that under-provisioning, due to inadequate assessment of expected credit losses, aggravates the negative effect of minimum capital requirements during recessions, because capital must absorb both expected, and unexpected losses. Moreover, when expected losses are properly reflected in lending rates, but not in provisioning practices, fluctuations in bank earnings magnify true oscillations in bank profitability. The relative agency problems faced by different stakeholders, may help explain the prevailing, and often unsatisfactory institutional arrangements. The authors test their hypotheses with a sample of 1,176 large commercial banks - 372 of them in non-G10 countries - for the period 1988-99. After controlling for different country-specific macroeconomic, and institutional features, they find robust evidence among G10 banks, of a positive association between loan loss provisions, and banks'pre-provision income. Such evidence is not confirmed for non-G10 banks, which on average, provision too little in good times, and are forced to increase provisions in bad times. The econometric evidence shows that the protection of outsiders'claims - the claims of minority shareholders in common law countries, and of fiscal authorities in countries with high public debt - on bank income, has negative effects on the level of bank provisions.International Terrorism&Counterterrorism,Banks&Banking Reform,Payment Systems&Infrastructure,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Financial Intermediation,Banks&Banking Reform,Public Sector Economics&Finance,Economic Theory&Research,Insurance&Risk Mitigation