A short survey of normative properties of possibility distributions

In 2001 Carlsson and Full´er [1] introduced the possibilistic mean value, variance and covariance of fuzzy numbers. In 2003 Full´er and Majlender [4] introduced the notations of crisp weighted possibilistic mean value, variance and covariance of fuzzy numbers, which are consistent with the extension principle. In 2003 Carlsson, Full´er and Majlender [2] proved the possibilisticCauc hy-Schwartz inequality. Drawing heavily on [1, 2, 3, 4, 5] we will summarize some normative properties of possibility distributions

New Method for Real Option Valuation Using Fuzzy Numbers

Real option analysis offers interesting insights on the value of assets and on the profitability of investments, which has made real options a growing field of academic research and practical application. Real option valuation is, however, often found to be difficult to understand and to implement due to the quite complex mathematics involved. Recent advances in modeling and analysis methods have made real option valuation easier to understand and to implement. This paper presents a new method for real option valuation using fuzzy numbers that is based on findings from earlier real option valuation methods and from fuzzy real option valuation. The method is intuitive to understand and far less complicated than any previous real option valuation model to date.Real Options, Fuzzy Numbers, New Method

Interval LU-fuzzy arithmetic in the Black and Scholes option pricing

In financial markets people have to cope with a lot of uncertainty while making decisions. Many models have been introduced in the last years to handle vagueness but it is very difficult to capture together all the fundamental characteristics of real markets. Fuzzy modeling for finance seems to have some challenging features describing the financial markets behavior; in this paper we show that the vagueness induced by the fuzzy mathematics can be relevant in modelling objects in finance, especially when a flexible parametrization is adopted to represent the fuzzy numbers. Fuzzy calculus for financial applications requires a big amount of computations and the LU-fuzzy representation produces good results due to the fact that it is computationally fast and it reproduces the essential quality of the shape of fuzzy numbers involved in computations. The paper considers the Black and Scholes option pricing formula, as long as many other have done in the last few years. We suggest the use of the LU-fuzzy parametric representation for fuzzy numbers, introduced in Guerra and Stefanini and improved in Stefanini, Sorini and Guerra, in the framework of the Black and Scholes model for option pricing, everywhere recognized as a benchmark; the details of the computations by the interval fuzzy arithmetic approach and an illustrative example are also incuded.Fuzzy Operations, Option Pricing, Black and Scholes

Compound Real Options with Fuzzy Pay-off

Compound real options are combinations of real options, where an exercise of a real option opens another real option. Compound real options are commonly found in a number of industrial projects, but are especially relevant in, e.g., research and development (R&D) where the R&D projects give the real option to research further, or to start the implementation of the results. Valuation of compound options with the most commonly used option valuation methods is often very complex and the methods suffer from a number of problems when used for valuation of real options. This paper discusses the valuation of compound real options with the fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation and shows that the method reduces complexity of the valuation of compound real options

A Possibilistic and Probabilistic Approach to Precautionary Saving

This paper proposes two mixed models to study a consumer's optimal saving in the presence of two types of risk.Comment: Panoeconomicus, 201

A Fuzzy Pay-off Method for Real Option Valuation

Real Options analysis offers interesting insights on the value of assets and on the profitability of investments, which has made real options a growing field of academic research and practical application. Real option valuation is, however, often found to be difficult to understand and to implement due to the quite complex mathematics involved. Recent advances in modeling and analysis methods have made real option valuation easier to understand and to implement. This paper presents a new method (fuzzy pay-off method) for real option valuation using fuzzy numbers that is based on findings from earlier real option valuation methods and from fuzzy real option valuation. The method is intuitive to understand and far less complicated than any previous real option valuation model to date. The paper also presents the use of number of different types of fuzzy numbers with the method and an application of the new method in an industry setting.Real Option Valuation; Fuzzy Real Options; Fuzzy Numbers