Optimization of Combat Dynamics

This report outlines research accomplishments for a two-year project studying the optimization of combat dynamics. Results were obtained for two basic topics: (1) obtaining insights into the dynamics of combat by mathematically analyzing relatively simple Lanchester-type models, and (2) investigating the structure of optimal time-sequential tactical decisions with such simple differntial-equation models. However, research efforts were primarily concentrated on the first topic, and new research directions were established (e.g. ground-breaking work on simple-approximate battle-outcome-prediction conditions). A complete list of publications originating from the project is given.R&D PROJECT NO. 1L161102BH57-05 MAT

Lanchester-Type Models of Warfare, Volume I

The Twentieth Century has been characterized by innumerable attempts to use the Scientific Method as a basis for policy planning in national and international affairs. The emergence of the field of operations research (OR) out of attempts of scientists in the Western Democracies to apply the Scientific Method to military problems during World War II is well known. Since World War II there has been a dramatic growth in both the interest in and use of OR and systems-analysis techniques for such purposes within the U.S. defense establish- ment, especially since the beginning of the so-called McNamara Era of defense planning. A concomitant trend has been an equally dramatic increase in both the number and variety of mathematical models used to support these analytical activities

Modeling and Analysis of Resolve and Morale for the `Long War\u27

In The Art of War, Sun Tzu begins by stating: War is a matter of vital importance to the State; the province of life or death; the road to survival or ruin. It is mandatory that it be thoroughly studied. Sun Tzu follow\u27s this opening by stating five fundamental factors a commander must master to be successful in combat. The first of these factors is moral influence which Sun Tzu defines as that which causes the people to be in harmony with their leaders, so they will accompany them in life and death without fear of mortal peril. In the face of the instant communication provided by satellites, 24 hour news media coverage, and other technological advances, this factor is even more relevant today. This research provides an analytic framework, based on the principles of fourth generation operations, capturing the effects of will and resolve of the combatant and population. The strategic level model investigates the long term impacts of asymmetric conflict. These results are primarily measured in the socio-political arena rather than the military battlefield. The model developed in this dissertation remains a model of conflict and combat. However, some of the impacts from the political, economic, and informational instruments of power are represented in the model through the dynamic adaptation of public resolve and combat spirit. To paraphrase Sun Tzu, war is vitally important and must be studied. Therefore, this dissertation puts forth a means to model key aspects of conflict in the `long war\u27

Recent Naval Postgraduate School Publications / FY 1981

This publication contains a listing for each faculty member from each department indicating the conference presentations, contributions to books, published papers and technical reports and notes.Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Rebel group interactions in multi-party civil wars

Previous studies of civil war have considered how the dynamics of multi-party conflicts differ from those involving a single rebel group. But few studies have examined the interdependent relationships that exist between the rebel groups themselves. Some groups form alliances, while others engage in inter-group conflict. This thesis contributes to the empirical literature on civil conflict by exploring the understudied area of rebel group interactions. Chapter I reviews the literature, highlights the gaps in previous research and outlines the hypotheses to be tested. Chapter II examines the driving forces for rebel group interactions by testing two competing theories using empirical data. Results suggest that power considerations are the primary driving force behind group interactions, but identity considerations are also found to play an important role. Chapter III explores the conditions that facilitate cooperative versus conflictual interactions. A set of theoretical arguments, based on credible commitments, are proposed and these are tested using empirical data. Results suggest that rebels with high levels of alliance credibility are more likely to cooperate with their peers, whereas groups who lack alliance credibility are more likely to engage in inter-rebel violence. Chapter IV examines the effect of interaction strategies on the survival and termination-type of rebel groups. Results of empirical data analysis show that interaction strategies have no effect on group longevity. Groups who engage in inter-rebel violence are more likely to terminate by peace agreement, whereas groups who form alliances are less likely to terminate by peace agreement. Allied groups are also less likely to suffer defeat. Chapter V investigates how computer based simulation techniques may be used to model rebel group interactions. A model of two-sided conflict is developed and extended so that multi-party conflict simulations can be performed. Suggestions regarding the modelling of interaction strategies are proposed and conclusions are drawn, which emphasise the relative advantages of differential equation modelling and agent-based simulation

Mao with Smart Phones and Internet? A Comparison of Classic Guerrilla Warfare with Fourth and Fifth Generation Warfare Using an Agent-Based Model for Simulation

Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) theory shares many characteristics of classical guerrilla warfare (CGW) theory in security studies literature. Proponents claim that 4GW is a revolution in war that overturns traditional measures of military power, while critics counter that 4GW is simply CGW in an updated context. Another group posits Fifth Generation Warfare (5GW), which adds additional information-age technologies and uses “any and all means,” (military and extra-military) to attack both the enemy’s will and capability to resist. The irregular subset of 5GW strategies appear to be an extension of 4GW with the addition of advanced information-age technologies: mobile phones and internet spreading propaganda instantly to friendly groups as well as national and trans-national enemies, while unconventional tactics such as suicide bombings and terrorist actions attempt to drain the will of opponents to continue the fight. The CGW and 4/5GW strategies are modeled in an agent-based simulation to evaluate similarities and differences in speed to victory, territory controlled, and the identity of the winning side. Emergent behaviors are compared with historical data. Fourth Generation Warfare (4GW) as conceptualized by numerous military scholars shares many characteristics of guerrilla tactics in the classical military literature of Sun Tzu, Wellington, Clausewitz, Mao, and Giap. Proponents of 4GW claim that its development has significantly altered the ratio of strength of industrialized and guerrilla forces, and thus the likelihood of weaker forces (as measured in previous military contexts) prevailing against forces assessed by traditional measures as stronger. Critics point to a lack of intellectual rigor in defining the salient characteristics of 4GW and charge that it is simply a re-statement of classical guerrilla war (CGW) tactics, albeit with improved communications and propaganda capabilities in a social media cultural context. This research models CGW and 4GW in conjunction with the irregular subset of 5GW in an agent-based simulation using NetLogo software (Wilensky, 1999) in order to explore differences in time and probability of victory and increased area of territory controlled by 4GW and irregular 5GW forces. These forces are then pitted against their respective industrial-age and information-age opponents. Emergent behaviors offer insights into the similarities and differences of CGW. The outputs are then compared to historical data to help answer the question of whether 4/5GW comprise a significant military revolution that threatens to upend traditional measures of military superiority, or they are merely an adaptation of old tactics to a new context. The results generally favored the rebels in both CGW and 4/5GW scenarios. Increasing Red Communications capability in the 4/5GW scenario overall increased Red Territory controlled as compared to the CGW scenario. However, increasing Blue Communications capability also increased Red Territory gained in both models. This could be interpreted that an overall increase in communications capabilities leads to more aggressive tactics and more engagements for both sides. Blue and Red communications in the 4/5GW scenarios are also associated with a decrease in both Red and Blue time to victory, indicating that the pace of engagements is accelerated in the 4/5GW scenarios. Finally, the model comparing identity of victor after 10 years produced mixed results. An increase in Red Communications was associated with a decrease in the log-odds of Blue Victory after 10 years in 4/5GW model, as expected. However, an increase Blue Communications also appeared to be associated with an increase in the log-odds of Red Victory in the 4/5GW model, a somewhat contradictory result. The addition of 21st century technologies seemed to change the overall dynamic compared to CGW only in specific cases, and usually only marginally. The research project was purposefully designed so that the 4/5GW capabilities would be additions to a basic model of guerrilla warfare. There is danger that these additions were simply insufficient in modeling the true extent of the differences between the two concepts of war, and that 4/5GW tactics are, in fact, revolutionary and not evolutionary. Further study is required to answer the question conclusively

Critical Infrastructure Protection Metrics and Tools Papers and Presentations

Contents: Dr. Hilda Blanco: Prioritizing Assets in Critical Infrastructure Systems; Christine Poptanich: Strategic Risk Analysis; Geoffrey S. French/Jin Kim: Threat-Based Approach to Risk Case Study: Strategic Homeland Infrastructure Risk Assessment (SHIRA); William L. McGill: Techniques for Adversary Threat Probability Assessment; Michael R. Powers: The Mathematics of Terrorism Risk Stefan Pickl: SOA Approach to the IT-based Protection of CIP; Richard John: Probabilistic Project Management for a Terrorist Planning a Dirty Bomb Attack on a Major US Port; LCDR Brady Downs: Maritime Security Risk Analysis Model (MSRAM); Chel Stromgren: Terrorism Risk Assessment and Management (TRAM); Steve Lieberman: Convergence of CIP and COOP in Banking and Finance; Harry Mayer: Assessing the Healthcare and Public Health Sector with Model Based Risk Analysis; Robert Powell: How Much and On What? Defending and Deterring Strategic Attackers; Ted G. Lewis: Why Do Networks Cascade

Some exactly solvable models of urn process theory

International audienceWe establish a fundamental isomorphism between discrete-time balanced urn processes and certain ordinary differential systems, which are nonlinear, autonomous, and of a simple monomial form. As a consequence, all balanced urn processes with balls of two colours are proved to be analytically solvable in finite terms. The corresponding generating functions are expressed in terms of certain Abelian integrals over curves of the Fermat type (which are also hypergeometric functions), together with their inverses. A consequence is the unification of the analyses of many classical models, including those related to the coupon collector's problem, particle transfer (the Ehrenfest model), Friedman's "adverse campaign'' and Pólya's contagion model, as well as the OK Corral model (a basic case of Lanchester's theory of conflicts). In each case, it is possible to quantify very precisely the probable composition of the urn at any discrete instant. We study here in detail "semi-sacrificial'' urns, for which the following are obtained: a Gaussian limiting distribution with speed of convergence estimates as well as a characterization of the large and extreme large deviation regimes. We also work out explicitly the case of $2$-dimensional triangular models, where local limit laws of the stable type are obtained. A few models of dimension three or greater, e.g., "autistic'' (generalized Pólya), cyclic chambers (generalized Ehrenfest), generalized coupon-collector, and triangular urns, are also shown to be exactly solvable

The impact of yesterday’s territorial shortages on today’s adapted mind

My dissertation adopts an evolutionary psychological perspective to argue that, given the relative dearth of territory that punctuated much of human evolutionary history, homo sapiens are endowed with an evolved psychological mechanism (EPM) to view threats concerning territory as especially salient and worthy of aggressive retorts. I go on to contend that variation in individuals’ ontogenetic contexts—such as sex differences between males and females—and immediate situational inputs—such as numerical superiority concerns or personal assessments of physical strength—can in some instances moderate and in other instances exacerbate the influence of this territorial EPM on conspecific aggressive behavior. My empirical tests show that while individuals do indeed demonstrate greater levels of both interpersonal and foreign policy aggression following territorial threats than non-territorial threats, the aforementioned role of one’s ontogenetic contexts and immediate situational inputs are also significant. For example, in regards to ontogenetic context, while males demonstrate greater aggression than females during offensive territorial encounters, this sex-based difference disappears during defensive territorial threats. Further, one’s immediate situational input also matters in the sense that aggression levels vary depending on whether the territorial resource under dispute was evolutionary essential for survive (e.g., water) or only gained importance relatively late in human evolution (e.g., gold). Overall, my results demonstrate that many outgrowths of territorial political violence in today’s world can often be understood via an evolutionary psychological rationale