On the allocation of credit and aggregate fluctuations

Recent literature on financial development and growth has highlighted the possibility of endogenous business cycles arising for particular levels of a given credit multiplier. These studies concentrate on loans directed to the productive activity and neglect the role of credit to consumption. In this note, we consider an endogenous growth model, where a representative agent must choose how to allocate credit; basically, the agent considers a simple rule where the share of credit to consumption reacts to deviations of the consumption – wealth ratio relatively to the corresponding steady state level. The setup generates nonlinear dynamics, which are analyzed both locally and globally.Financial development; Credit to consumption; Endogenous growth; Endogenous cycles; Nonlinear dynamics

Deterministic randomness in a model of finance and growth

Following the literature on growth, cycles and financial development, this paper develops an endogenous growth model where the source of endogenous business cycles relates to the allocation of credit between productive investment and consumption. An important role is given to consumer sentiment, because this determines the willingness of households in terms of demand for credit; in particular, optimistic beliefs about the economy’s macro performance deviate financial resources from investment in favour of consumption. The dynamic analysis indicates that Neimark-Sacker and flip bifurcations eventually separate stable and unstable manifolds, and as a result a region of nonlinear motion is generated: cycles of various periodicities and chaotic motion characterize the behaviour of the long run time paths of accumulated wealth, output and consumption.Financial development; Endogenous business cycles; Endogenous growth; Credit to consumption; Local bifurcations; Nonlinear dynamics; Chaos

Threshold quantile autoregressive models

We study in this article threshold quantile autoregressive processes. In particular we propose estimation and inference of the parameters in nonlinear quantile processes when the threshold parameter defining nonlinearities is known for each quantile, and also when the parameter vector is estimated consistently. We derive the asymptotic properties of the nonlinear threshold quantile autoregressive estimator. In addition, we develop hypothesis tests for detecting threshold nonlinearities in the quantile process when the threshold parameter vector is not identified under the null hypothesis. In this case we propose to approximate the asymptotic distribution of the composite test using a p-value transformation. This test contributes to the literature on nonlinearity tests by extending Hansen’s (Econometrica 64, 1996, pp.413-430) methodology for the conditional mean process to the entire quantile process. We apply the proposed methodology to model the dynamics of US unemployment growth after the Second World War. The results show evidence of important heterogeneity associated with unemployment, and strong asymmetric persistence on unemployment growth

Can social interaction contribute to explain business cycles?

Recent literature has been able to include into standard optimal growth models some hypotheses that allow for the generation of endogenous long run fluctuations. This paper contributes to this endogenous business cycles literature by considering social interactions. In the proposed model, individuals can choose, under a discrete choice rule, to which social group they prefer to belong to. This selection process is constrained essentially by the dimension of the group, which is the main determinant regarding the utility individuals withdraw from social interaction. The proposed setup implies the presence of cycles and chaotic motion describing the evolution of group dimension over time. Because being member of a group involves costs to households, the inclusion of these costs in a standard Ramsey growth model will imply that endogenous cycles might arise in the time trajectory of the growth rate of output.Social interaction; Business cycles; Growth models; Nonlinear dynamics and Chaos; Discrete choice

Size Metrics and Dynamics of Firms Expansion in the European Pharmaceutical Industry

We generalize the growth-of-firm literature by linking alternative metrics of size via a Copula approach. We look at the result of the fitted Copula and justify the metric we base our analysis upon. We employ the Amadeus dataset and investigate the growth dynamics of the European pharmaceutical industry in the Single Market Programme era, 1990–2004. Relying on a set of dynamic panel Probit methods that deal with unobserved heterogeneity and initial conditions, we analyze how our units of investigation, multinationals, capture opportunities over time. We find strong evidence of state dependence and mean reversion, as predicated by the theory of maturation — firms face a period of rapid growth, followed by a slow down, or even a stop, in growth. We finish off our exercise by conditioning the fitted Copula on the predicted measure of size and simulate the remaining measures.Copula, Dynamic Nonlinear Panel Data Models, Entry, Firms Growth, Lower Bound, Pharmaceutical Industry, Single Market Programme, Unobserved Heterogeneity

The Consumption-Wealth Ratio Under Asymmetric Adjustment

This paper argues that nonlinear adjustment may provide a better explanation of fluctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio. The nonlinearity is captured by a Markov-switching vector error-correction model that allows the dynamics of the relationship to differ across regimes. Estimation of the system suggests that these states are related to the behaviour of financial markets. In fact, estimation of the system suggests that short-term deviations in the consumption-wealth ratio will forecast either asset returns or consumption growth: the first when changes in wealth are transitory; the second when changes in wealth are permanent. Our approach uncovers a richer and more complex dynamics in the consumption-wealth ratio than previous results in the literature, whilst being in accordance with theoretical predictions of a simple model of consumption under uncertainty.Consumption, Financial markets, Uncertainty, Forecast, Markov switching

The Consumption-Wealth Ratio Under Asymmetric Adjustment

This paper argues that nonlinear adjustment may provide a better explanation of °uctuations in the consumption-wealth ratio. The nonlinearity is captured by a Markov-switching vector error-correction model that allows the dynamics of the relationship to di®er across regimes. Estimation of the system suggests that these states are related to the behaviour of ¯nancial markets. In fact, estimation of the system suggests that short-term deviations in the consumption-wealth ratio will forecast either asset returns or consumption growth: the ¯rst when changes in wealth are transitory; the second when changes in wealth are permanent. Our approach uncovers a richer and more complex dynamics in the consumption-wealth ratio than previous results in the literature, whilst being in accordance with theoretical predictions of a simple model of consumption under uncertainty.Consumption; Financial markets; Uncertainty; Forecast; Markov switching

Too much of a good thing: endogenous business cycles generated by bounded technological progress

Following Jones and Williams (2000), we assume that R&D is simultaneously subject to positive and to negative external effects (e.g., the non rival nature of technology conflicts with congestion externalities). This observation allows to conceive an economy where two R&D sectors evolve without departing significantly from each other in terms of their productive results (society tends to penalize imbalances in technical progress, making negative external effects to appear associated to a sector when this outstands relatively to the other sector; the second sector, in turn, will be subject to positive externalities that reflect a catching up effect). The proposed framework, when associated to a growth setup, is able to replicate the existence of endogenous fluctuations and, therefore, it intends to be a contribution to the literature on endogenous business cycles.Technology; Externalities; Endogenous business cycles; Growth models; Nonlinear dynamics and chaos