26,187 research outputs found
Collective Decision-Making in Ideal Networks: The Speed-Accuracy Tradeoff
We study collective decision-making in a model of human groups, with network
interactions, performing two alternative choice tasks. We focus on the
speed-accuracy tradeoff, i.e., the tradeoff between a quick decision and a
reliable decision, for individuals in the network. We model the evidence
aggregation process across the network using a coupled drift diffusion model
(DDM) and consider the free response paradigm in which individuals take their
time to make the decision. We develop reduced DDMs as decoupled approximations
to the coupled DDM and characterize their efficiency. We determine high
probability bounds on the error rate and the expected decision time for the
reduced DDM. We show the effect of the decision-maker's location in the network
on their decision-making performance under several threshold selection
criteria. Finally, we extend the coupled DDM to the coupled Ornstein-Uhlenbeck
model for decision-making in two alternative choice tasks with recency effects,
and to the coupled race model for decision-making in multiple alternative
choice tasks.Comment: to appear in IEEE TCN
Information Processing in Decisions under Risk: Evidence for Compensatory Strategies based on Automatic Processes
Many everyday decisions have to be made under risk and can be interpreted as choices between gambles with different outcomes that are realized with specific probabilities. The underlying cognitive processes were investigated by testing six sets of hypotheses concerning choices, decision times, and information search derived from cumulative prospect theory, decision field theory, priority heuristic and parallel constraint satisfaction models. Our participants completed forty decision tasks of two gambles with two non-negative outcomes each. Information search was recorded using eye-tracking technology. Results for all dependent measures conflict with the prediction of the non-compensatory priority heuristic and indicate that individuals use compensatory strategies. Choice proportions are well predicted by a cumulative prospect theory. Process measures, however, indicate that individuals do not rely on deliberate calculations of weighted sums. Information integration processes seem to be better explained by models that partially rely on automatic processes such as decision field theory or parallel constraint satisfaction models.Risky Decisions, Cumulative Prospect Theory, Decision Field Theory, Priority Heuristic, Parallel Constraint Satisfaction, Eye Tracking, Intuition
Preference fusion and Condorcet's Paradox under uncertainty
Facing an unknown situation, a person may not be able to firmly elicit
his/her preferences over different alternatives, so he/she tends to express
uncertain preferences. Given a community of different persons expressing their
preferences over certain alternatives under uncertainty, to get a collective
representative opinion of the whole community, a preference fusion process is
required. The aim of this work is to propose a preference fusion method that
copes with uncertainty and escape from the Condorcet paradox. To model
preferences under uncertainty, we propose to develop a model of preferences
based on belief function theory that accurately describes and captures the
uncertainty associated with individual or collective preferences. This work
improves and extends the previous results. This work improves and extends the
contribution presented in a previous work. The benefits of our contribution are
twofold. On the one hand, we propose a qualitative and expressive preference
modeling strategy based on belief-function theory which scales better with the
number of sources. On the other hand, we propose an incremental distance-based
algorithm (using Jousselme distance) for the construction of the collective
preference order to avoid the Condorcet Paradox.Comment: International Conference on Information Fusion, Jul 2017, Xi'an,
Chin
Rationality and dynamic consistency under risk and uncertainty
For choice with deterministic consequences, the standard rationality hypothesis is ordinality - i.e., maximization of a weak preference ordering. For choice under risk (resp. uncertainty), preferences are assumed to be represented by the objectively (resp. subjectively) expected value of a von Neumann{Morgenstern utility function. For choice under risk, this implies a key independence axiom; under uncertainty, it implies some version of Savage's sure thing principle. This chapter investigates the extent to which ordinality, independence, and the sure thing principle can be derived from more fundamental axioms concerning behaviour in decision trees. Following Cubitt (1996), these principles include dynamic consistency, separability, and reduction of sequential choice, which can be derived in turn from one consequentialist hypothesis applied to continuation subtrees as well as entire decision trees. Examples of behavior violating these principles are also reviewed, as are possible explanations of why such violations are often observed in experiments
Joint Centrality Distinguishes Optimal Leaders in Noisy Networks
We study the performance of a network of agents tasked with tracking an
external unknown signal in the presence of stochastic disturbances and under
the condition that only a limited subset of agents, known as leaders, can
measure the signal directly. We investigate the optimal leader selection
problem for a prescribed maximum number of leaders, where the optimal leader
set minimizes total system error defined as steady-state variance about the
external signal. In contrast to previously established greedy algorithms for
optimal leader selection, our results rely on an expression of total system
error in terms of properties of the underlying network graph. We demonstrate
that the performance of any given set of leaders depends on their influence as
determined by a new graph measure of centrality of a set. We define the of a set of nodes in a network graph such that a leader set with
maximal joint centrality is an optimal leader set. In the case of a single
leader, we prove that the optimal leader is the node with maximal information
centrality. In the case of multiple leaders, we show that the nodes in the
optimal leader set balance high information centrality with a coverage of the
graph. For special cases of graphs, we solve explicitly for optimal leader
sets. We illustrate with examples.Comment: Conditionally accepted to IEEE TCN
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