A meta-analysis of state-of-the-art electoral prediction from Twitter data

Electoral prediction from Twitter data is an appealing research topic. It seems relatively straightforward and the prevailing view is overly optimistic. This is problematic because while simple approaches are assumed to be good enough, core problems are not addressed. Thus, this paper aims to (1) provide a balanced and critical review of the state of the art; (2) cast light on the presume predictive power of Twitter data; and (3) depict a roadmap to push forward the field. Hence, a scheme to characterize Twitter prediction methods is proposed. It covers every aspect from data collection to performance evaluation, through data processing and vote inference. Using that scheme, prior research is analyzed and organized to explain the main approaches taken up to date but also their weaknesses. This is the first meta-analysis of the whole body of research regarding electoral prediction from Twitter data. It reveals that its presumed predictive power regarding electoral prediction has been rather exaggerated: although social media may provide a glimpse on electoral outcomes current research does not provide strong evidence to support it can replace traditional polls. Finally, future lines of research along with a set of requirements they must fulfill are provided.Comment: 19 pages, 3 table

Political Marketing: How Social Media influenced the 2008-2016 U.S. Presidential Elections and Best Practices Associated

Political marketing has become a growing facet of marketing that has infiltrated the campaigning of U.S. presidential elections. Within this cognate of marketing, social media has become a major component of predicting election outcomes starting with the 2008 U.S. presidential election. An analysis of the social media performance of candidates from the 2008 to 2016 U.S. presidential elections reveals how the power of social media can be harnessed to increase voter participation, connect voters to offline political activity, and engage voters with candidates on a more personal note. Social media political marketing should further emphasize the candidate’s brand and build followership through targeted messaging to desired segments. Social media continues to grow in use and bypass direct news sources; therefore, it must complement and create a dialogue with traditional media, as it will likely surpass it someday. To use social media effectively in political marketing, best practices are outlined in this paper with regards to content, engagement, security, platform selection, targeting, group membership environment creation, and display

Does Campaigning on Social Media Make a Difference? Evidence from candidate use of Twitter during the 2015 and 2017 UK Elections

Social media are now a routine part of political campaigns all over the world. However, studies of the impact of campaigning on social platform have thus far been limited to cross-sectional datasets from one election period which are vulnerable to unobserved variable bias. Hence empirical evidence on the effectiveness of political social media activity is thin. We address this deficit by analysing a novel panel dataset of political Twitter activity in the 2015 and 2017 elections in the United Kingdom. We find that Twitter based campaigning does seem to help win votes, a finding which is consistent across a variety of different model specifications including a first difference regression. The impact of Twitter use is small in absolute terms, though comparable with that of campaign spending. Our data also support the idea that effects are mediated through other communication channels, hence challenging the relevance of engaging in an interactive fashion

Transfer Learning for Multi-language Twitter Election Classification

Both politicians and citizens are increasingly embracing social media as a means to disseminate information and comment on various topics, particularly during significant political events, such as elections. Such commentary during elections is also of interest to social scientists and pollsters. To facilitate the study of social media during elections, there is a need to automatically identify posts that are topically related to those elections. However, current studies have focused on elections within English-speaking regions, and hence the resultant election content classifiers are only applicable for elections in countries where the predominant language is English. On the other hand, as social media is becoming more prevalent worldwide, there is an increasing need for election classifiers that can be generalised across different languages, without building a training dataset for each election. In this paper, based upon transfer learning, we study the development of effective and reusable election classifiers for use on social media across multiple languages. We combine transfer learning with different classifiers such as Support Vector Machines (SVM) and state-of-the-art Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN), which make use of word embedding representations for each social media post. We generalise the learned classifier models for cross-language classification by using a linear translation approach to map the word embedding vectors from one language into another. Experiments conducted over two election datasets in different languages show that without using any training data from the target language, linear translations outperform a classical transfer learning approach, namely Transfer Component Analysis (TCA), by 80% in recall and 25% in F1 measure