"i have a feeling trump will win..................": Forecasting Winners and Losers from User Predictions on Twitter

Social media users often make explicit predictions about upcoming events. Such statements vary in the degree of certainty the author expresses toward the outcome:"Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor" vs. "Leonardo DiCaprio may win" or "No way Leonardo wins!". Can popular beliefs on social media predict who will win? To answer this question, we build a corpus of tweets annotated for veridicality on which we train a log-linear classifier that detects positive veridicality with high precision. We then forecast uncertain outcomes using the wisdom of crowds, by aggregating users' explicit predictions. Our method for forecasting winners is fully automated, relying only on a set of contenders as input. It requires no training data of past outcomes and outperforms sentiment and tweet volume baselines on a broad range of contest prediction tasks. We further demonstrate how our approach can be used to measure the reliability of individual accounts' predictions and retrospectively identify surprise outcomes.Comment: Accepted at EMNLP 2017 (long paper

The Development and the Evaluation of a System for Extracting Events from Web Pages

The centralization of a particular event is primarily useful for running news services. These services should provide updated information, if possible even in real time, on a specific type of event. These events and their extraction involved the automatic analysis of linguistic structure documents to determine the possible sequences in which these events occur in documents. This analysis will provide structured and semi-structured documents in which the unit events can be extracted automatically. In order to measure the quality of a system, a methodology will be introduced, which describes the stages and how the decomposition of a system for extracting events in components, quality attributes and properties will be defined for these components, and finally will be introduced metrics for evaluation.Event, Performance Metric, Event Extraction System

Exploring The Value Of Folksonomies For Creating Semantic Metadata

Finding good keywords to describe resources is an on-going problem: typically we select such words manually from a thesaurus of terms, or they are created using automatic keyword extraction techniques. Folksonomies are an increasingly well populated source of unstructured tags describing web resources. This paper explores the value of the folksonomy tags as potential source of keyword metadata by examining the relationship between folksonomies, community produced annotations, and keywords extracted by machines. The experiment has been carried-out in two ways: subjectively, by asking two human indexers to evaluate the quality of the generated keywords from both systems; and automatically, by measuring the percentage of overlap between the folksonomy set and machine generated keywords set. The results of this experiment show that the folksonomy tags agree more closely with the human generated keywords than those automatically generated. The results also showed that the trained indexers preferred the semantics of folksonomy tags compared to keywords extracted automatically. These results can be considered as evidence for the strong relationship of folksonomies to the human indexer’s mindset, demonstrating that folksonomies used in the del.icio.us bookmarking service are a potential source for generating semantic metadata to annotate web resources

Crowdsourcing Cybersecurity: Cyber Attack Detection using Social Media

Social media is often viewed as a sensor into various societal events such as disease outbreaks, protests, and elections. We describe the use of social media as a crowdsourced sensor to gain insight into ongoing cyber-attacks. Our approach detects a broad range of cyber-attacks (e.g., distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks, data breaches, and account hijacking) in an unsupervised manner using just a limited fixed set of seed event triggers. A new query expansion strategy based on convolutional kernels and dependency parses helps model reporting structure and aids in identifying key event characteristics. Through a large-scale analysis over Twitter, we demonstrate that our approach consistently identifies and encodes events, outperforming existing methods.Comment: 13 single column pages, 5 figures, submitted to KDD 201

Enriching ontological user profiles with tagging history for multi-domain recommendations

Many advanced recommendation frameworks employ ontologies of various complexities to model individuals and items, providing a mechanism for the expression of user interests and the representation of item attributes. As a result, complex matching techniques can be applied to support individuals in the discovery of items according to explicit and implicit user preferences. Recently, the rapid adoption of Web2.0, and the proliferation of social networking sites, has resulted in more and more users providing an increasing amount of information about themselves that could be exploited for recommendation purposes. However, the unification of personal information with ontologies using the contemporary knowledge representation methods often associated with Web2.0 applications, such as community tagging, is a non-trivial task. In this paper, we propose a method for the unification of tags with ontologies by grounding tags to a shared representation in the form of Wordnet and Wikipedia. We incorporate individuals' tagging history into their ontological profiles by matching tags with ontology concepts. This approach is preliminary evaluated by extending an existing news recommendation system with user tagging histories harvested from popular social networking sites

Towards a taxonomy of strategic research in the IMP tradition

The project reported in this article is part of a wider project, the aim of which is to investigate the contribution that interaction and networks (IMP) research has made to the field of strategy (Baraldi et al 2006). The specific aim of the sub-project described here is to develop, from the archive of IMP research, a better understanding of both the implicit and the explicit contributions that IMP research has made to the strategy field. The method employed is a systematic analysis of the IMP research database, using a content analysis approach, with the aim of developing a robust taxonomy of strategic research that has emerged from this body of knowledge. Specifically, this paper concerns itself with the development of the analytical method for this task, and with the presentation of the results of a pilot study conducted on 55 IMP research papers to test the analytical approachPeer reviewedSubmitted Versio