Economic implications of Turkish EU membership: the advantages of tying one’s hands

This paper is a stock-taking exercise that brings together existing findings and new insights on the potential costs and benefits of EU membership for both Turkey and the EU. As far as Turkey is concerned, we focus on the costs and benefits of EU membership that are likely to result from compliance with the so-called EU conditionality. As far as EU is concerned, we focus on the costs and benefits associated with budgetary contributions and migration. Overall, we conclude that the impact of membership is likely to be positive for both parties, but the risks and returns are associated. In other words, Turkey stands to gain more than the EU but it is also the party that will be faced with higher adjustment costs.EU enlargement, economic costs and benefits of integration, migration, EU-Turkey relations

Choosing the Regime in an Uncertain World, the UK and Monetary Union

The UK has to take a decision on EMU membership at some point, and the costs and benefits have to be evaluated. Different policy frameworks result in differing outcomes for the means and variances of economic variables such as inflation, output, and nominal and real exchange rates and interest rates. Changing the level of uncertainty in the economy may change the equilibrium level of output and investment. Hence membership of EMU has to be evaluated in the light of its impact on the volatility of target variables and on the impact of volatility on the level of output and welfare. We discuss a theoretical framework within which we can discuss these issues, and we undertake stochastic simulation on a large, New Keynesian model including all the European economies in order to evaluate the effects of membership on the level and volatility of output. Our experiments suggest that membership of EMU would reduce volatility and as a result raise the sustainable level of output and employment in the UK.EMU, exchange rate regimes, uncertainty and investment, UK membership

The effect of the common bond and membership expansion on credit union risk

This paper examines differences in institutional risk profiles based on credit union membership type and membership expansion via “select employee groups,” or SEGs, which are now expressly allowed by the Credit Union Membership Access Act of 1998. A cross-sectional statistical model is specified that examines risk variation relative to the type of common bond and the breadth of the credit union’s membership. In findings that are consistent with earlier research, the authors document that occupationally based credit unions have a unique risk profile relative to other common bonds. This profile includes a greater exposure to concentration risk, which is hedged by holding greater proportions of capital. ; The authors also examine the subsample of Single-Bond occupational credit unions and those Multi-Bond credit unions with primarily occupational group members. They find that the presence of SEGs is negatively related to capital ratios and positively related to loan-to-share ratios relative to the Single-Bond occupational credit unions. The use of survey data documenting the number of SEGs confirms that, as more SEGs are added, credit unions tend to increase their loan-to-share ratios and decrease their capital ratios. However, the number of SEGs and the proportion of loan delinquencies are found to be positively related, suggesting that the informational advantages associated with the common bond become diluted as new groups are added. Overall, the authors conclude that there are material benefits of credit union membership diversification and that these benefits derive from expanded investment opportunities and reduced concentration risk.Credit unions ; Risk

Possibilistic and fuzzy clustering methods for robust analysis of non-precise data

This work focuses on robust clustering of data affected by imprecision. The imprecision is managed in terms of fuzzy sets. The clustering process is based on the fuzzy and possibilistic approaches. In both approaches the observations are assigned to the clusters by means of membership degrees. In fuzzy clustering the membership degrees express the degrees of sharing of the observations to the clusters. In contrast, in possibilistic clustering the membership degrees are degrees of typicality. These two sources of information are complementary because the former helps to discover the best fuzzy partition of the observations while the latter reflects how well the observations are described by the centroids and, therefore, is helpful to identify outliers. First, a fully possibilistic k-means clustering procedure is suggested. Then, in order to exploit the benefits of both the approaches, a joint possibilistic and fuzzy clustering method for fuzzy data is proposed. A selection procedure for choosing the parameters of the new clustering method is introduced. The effectiveness of the proposal is investigated by means of simulated and real-life data

Who is in Favour of Enlargement? Determinants of Support for EU Membership in the Candidate's Countries Referenda

This paper investigates both the macro and micro determinants of EU support as expressed in the 2003 referenda on EU membership and the 2002 Candidate Countries Eurobarometer survey data. It is found that favourable individual and regional characteristics, i.e., the “winners” of the transition process, are positively correlated with support for accession and voter participation. In contrast, those who should benefit from future EU transfers, i.e., the “losers” of the process, are less likely to vote and/or support EU membership. It is therefore argued that voters in the new member states assign greater weight on future benefits from liberalization and integration than on potential gains through redistribution. Classification-Financial integration, capital flows, external assets and liabilities

Issue No. 78: January 2009

1 Governor Prince, Dr. Hewitt, and Their Battles for the Old Palace1 New Mexico\u27s Hats off to New Mexico-Beep Beep Float Wins Coveted Bob Hope Humor Award in 2009 Tournament of Roses Parade6 Historic Markers Honor History and Individuals in 12 Counties and Pueblos7 Historical Society of New Mexico Membership Services7 Esther Martínez National Heritage Fellow Honored with Roadside Marker8 New Books for Your New Mexico History Library8 In Memoriam8 Membership Benefits, Historical Society of New Mexic

The Benefits and Limitations of European Union Membership as a Security Mechanism

With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the post-1945 ‘pax Sovietica’ led not to the ‘end of history’, but rather to an ‘awakening of history’. The wider Europe that emerged in 1989 is facing changing security concerns, which affect both the new democracies and the European Union. Internal security has become increasingly important and has been affected by external security concerns. In particular, threats other than military ones have emerged, leading to the rethinking of the institutional framework entrusted with the safeguarding of security in Europe. EU membership appears to be an effective tool for ensuring European security. This paper highlights the new internal and external political and economic security concerns in transition economies in order to evaluate the benefits and limitations of EU enlargement as a way of addressing these changing security concerns. Several countries, particularly Poland and Romania, are used to exemplify the EU’s role in enhancing security in the applicant countries. The article concludes with policy recommendations for dealing with the limitations of EU membership, and for using the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) as a tool for ensuring security beyond the EU enlargement

The International System Safety Society and the International System Safety Conference — Its Future

In recent years, there has been a falling off of membership in the International System Safety Society and attendance at its annual International System Safety Conference (ISSC). There are a number of reasons for this, including: The recent tight budget constraints on government and independent organizations A growing loss of younger Society membership The impression that the Society no longer serves a unique niche in the world of system safety The first aspect needs no further consideration, apart from how one continues to make the case to organizations about the benefits of active membership in the Society and attendance at its meetings. Typically, one might note the value of networking with peers, learning what’s new and topical in system safety. I suppose one must also ask how organizations typically view graded membership in the Society as compared to equivalent membership in more formal institutions. More specifically, what does the Society’s membership and level mean to the individual and the organization in terms of achieving improved performance? What benefits do organizations gain from Society membership of advertising the pedigree of its workforce? Has there been an organizational review of this nature

SALT Equalizer, Vol. 2011, Issue 2

Contents of This Issue: Raquel Aldana & Steven W. Bender, Co-Presidents’ Column, at 1. Hazel Weiser, Executive Director’s Column, at 1. Hazel Wesier, SALT Board of Governors Election, at 4. Hazel Weiser, Breaking In: Committed to Diversity in the Legal Academy, at 7. Hope Lewis, SALT and Northeastern Host Well-Received “Breaking Into Law Teaching Program,” at 7. Solangel Maldonado, B.A. to J.D. Pipeline Initiative: November Conference on Diversifying the Legal Profession, at 8. Ruben Garcia, Great Teacher Keith Aoki’s Legacy to be Celebrated at 2012 SALT Dinner, at 9. Doug Colbert & Pamela Bridgewater, Access to Justice Committee: Progress, Projects, and a New Co-Chair, at 10. Jackie Gardina, LGBT Committee: What Does Repeal of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell Really Mean?, at 11. Andi Curcio & Carol Chomsky, Issues in Legal Education Committee: Continuing Work on Pending ABA Accreditation Standards, at 12. Majorie Cohn, Human Rights Committee: SALT Signs Amicus Brief Against Alabama Racial Profiling Law, at 13. Hazel Weiser, A New School Year Means It’s Time to Renew Your SALT Membership, at 14. Robert Lancaster & Ngai Pindell, SALT Public Interest Retreats: Coming Soon to a Location Near You, at 15. SALT 2011-12 Calendar: Enjoy the Benefits of SALT Membership, at 15

Bank Credit and Business Networks

We construct the topology of business networks across the population of firms in an emerging economy, Pakistan, and estimate the value that membership in large yet diffuse networks brings in terms of access to bank credit and improving financial viability. We link two firms if they have a common director. The resulting topology includes a "giant network" that is order of magnitudes larger than the second largest network. While it displays "small world" properties and comprises 5 percent of all firms, it accesses two-thirds of all bank credit. We estimate the value of joining this giant network by exploiting "incidental" entry and exit of firms over time. Membership increases total external financing by 16.6 percent, reduces the propensity to enter financial distress by 9.5 percent, and better insures firms against industry and location shocks. Firms that join improve financial access by borrowing more from new lenders, particularly those already lending to their (new) giant-network neighbors. Network benefits also depend critically on where a firm connects to in the network and on the firm's pre-existing strength.