Consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking, both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring—the way of assessing risk in consumer finance—and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines 10 challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these involve developing more robust risk assessment systems, whereas others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer finance. <br/

Operations research in consumer finance: challenges for operational research

Consumer finance has become one of the most important areas of banking both because of the amount of money being lent and the impact of such credit on the global economy and the realisation that the credit crunch of 2008 was partly due to incorrect modelling of the risks in such lending. This paper reviews the development of credit scoring,-the way of assessing risk in consumer finance- and what is meant by a credit score. It then outlines ten challenges for Operational Research to support modelling in consumer finance. Some of these are to developing more robust risk assessment systems while others are to expand the use of such modelling to deal with the current objectives of lenders and the new decisions they have to make in consumer financ

Forecasting creditworthiness in retail banking: a comparison of cascade correlation neural networks, CART and logistic regression scoring models

The preoccupation with modelling credit scoring systems including their relevance to forecasting and decision making in the financial sector has been with developed countries whilst developing countries have been largely neglected. The focus of our investigation is the Cameroonian commercial banking sector with implications for fellow members of the Banque des Etats de L’Afrique Centrale (BEAC) family which apply the same system. We investigate their currently used approaches to assessing personal loans and we construct appropriate scoring models. Three statistical modelling scoring techniques are applied, namely Logistic Regression (LR), Classification and Regression Tree (CART) and Cascade Correlation Neural Network (CCNN). To compare various scoring models’ performances we use Average Correct Classification (ACC) rates, error rates, ROC curve and GINI coefficient as evaluation criteria. The results demonstrate that a reduction in terms of forecasting power from 15.69% default cases under the current system, to 3.34% based on the best scoring model, namely CART can be achieved. The predictive capabilities of all three models are rated as at least very good using GINI coefficient; and rated excellent using the ROC curve for both CART and CCNN. It should be emphasised that in terms of prediction rate, CCNN is superior to the other techniques investigated in this paper. Also, a sensitivity analysis of the variables identifies borrower’s account functioning, previous occupation, guarantees, car ownership, and loan purpose as key variables in the forecasting and decision making process which are at the heart of overall credit policy

Misclassification analysis for the class imbalance problem

In classification, the class imbalance issue normally causes the learning algorithm to be dominated by the majority classes and the features of the minority classes are sometimes ignored. This will indirectly affect how human visualise the data. Therefore, special care is needed to take care of the learning algorithm in order to enhance the accuracy for the minority classes. In this study, the use of misclassification analysis is investigated for data re-distribution. Several under-sampling techniques and hybrid techniques using misclassification analysis are proposed in the paper. The benchmark data sets obtained from the University of California Irvine (UCI) machine learning repository are used to investigate the performance of the proposed techniques. The results show that the proposed hybrid technique presents the best performance in the experiment

An artificial intelligence and NLP based Islamic FinTech model combining Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan for countering the adverse impact of COVID 19 on SMEs and individuals

Pursose: The ongoing Corona virus (COVID 19) pandemic has already impacted almost everyone across the globe. The focus has now shifted from spread of the disease to the economic consequences it will bring to the society. The shortage of production will result into the shortage of supply and consequently will end as loss of jobs and employment for millions of people around the world. Two of the most important section of our society i.e., daily wage laborers and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) will have to bear the major burnt of this crisis. The proposed integrated Artificial Intelligence and NLP based Islamic FinTech Model combining Zakat (Islamic tax) and Qardh-Al-Hasan (benevolent loan) can help the economy to minimize the adverse impact of COVID 19 on individuals and SMEs. Design/Methodology/Approach: The present study explores the possibility of Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan as a financing method to fight the adverse impact of Corona virus on poor individuls and SMEs. It provides the solution by proposing an Artificial Intelligence and NLP based Islamic FinTech Model combining Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan. Findings: The findings of the study reveals that Islamic finance has immense potential to fight any kind of situation/pandemic. Zakat and Qardh-Al-Hasan, if combined together can prove to be a deadly combination to fight the adverse effect of COVID 19. Practical Implications: To be used as an effective way to support individuals and SMEs in the period during and after the pandemic of COVID 19. Originality/value: There is no study combining Zakat and Qardh Al-Hasan to fight the adverse effect of poor individuals and SMEs. The study will contribute massively to the existing literature and will help the government and civil societies in fighting the economic impact of COVID 19 on individuals and SMEs.peer-reviewe

"Can Banks Learn to Be Rational?"

Can banks learn to be rational in their lending activities? The answer depends on the institutionally bounded constraints to learning. From an evolutionary perspective the functionality (for survival) of "learning to be rational" creates strong incentives for such learning without, however, guaranteeing that each member of the particular economic species actually achieves increased fitness. I investigate this issue for a particular economic species, namely, commrercial banks. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the key issues related to learning in an economic model by proposing a new screening model for bank commercial loans that uses the neuro fuzzy technique. The technical modeling aspect is integrally connected in a rigorous way to the key conceptual and theoretical aspects of the capabilities for learning to be rational in a broad but precise sense. This paper also compares the relative predictability of loan default among three methods of prediction--- discriminant analysis, logit type regression, and neuro fuzzy--- based on the real data obtained from one of the banks in Taiwan.The neuro fuzzy model, in contrast with the other two, incorporates recursive learning in a real world, imprecise linguistic environment. The empirical results show that in addition to its better screening ability, the neuro fuzzy model is superior in explaining the relationship among the variables as well. With further modifications,this model could be used by bank regulatory agencies for loan examination and by bank loan officers for loan review. The main theoretical conclusion to draw from this demonstration is that non-linear learning in a vague semantic world is both possible and useful. Therefore the search for alternatives to the full neoclassical rationality and its equivalent under uncertainty---rational expectations--- is a plausible and desirable search, especially when the probability for convergence to a rational expectations equilibrium is low.

Weibull Racing Survival Analysis for Competing Events and a Study of Loan Payoff and Default

We propose Bayesian nonparametric Weibull delegate racing (WDR) to explicitly model surviving under competing events and to interpret how the covariates accelerate or decelerate the event times. WDR explains non-monotonic covariate effects by racing a potentially infinite number of sub-events, relaxing the ubiquitous proportional-hazards assumption which may be too restrictive. WDR can handle different types of censoring and missing event times or types. For inference, we develop a Gibbs-sampler-based MCMC algorithm along with a maximum a posteriori estimation for big data applications. We use synthetic data analysis to demonstrate the flexibility and parsimonious nonlinearity of WDR. We also use a data set of time to loan payoff and default from Prosper.com to showcase the interpretability.Comment: 40 pages, 7 figures, 14 table

A Review and Bibliography of Early Warning Models

This note is intended to share some observations regarding a non-exhaustive collection of the early warning literature from 1971 to 2011. Evolution of the interest in early warning models, methodological spectrum of studies and coverage of economic variables are briefly discussed in addition to providing a bibliography.Early warning systems, bibliometric analysis