433,450 research outputs found
Multivariate dynamic kernels for financial time series forecasting
The final publication is available at http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-44781-0_40We propose a forecasting procedure based on multivariate dynamic kernels, with the capability of integrating information measured at different frequencies and at irregular time intervals in financial markets. A data compression process redefines the original financial time series into temporal data blocks, analyzing the temporal information of multiple time intervals. The analysis is done through multivariate dynamic kernels within support vector regression. We also propose two kernels for financial time series that are computationally efficient without a sacrifice on accuracy. The efficacy of the methodology is demonstrated by empirical experiments on forecasting the challenging S&P500 market.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft
A Graphical Examination of Variable Deletion within the MEWMA Statistic
A general procedure for identifying the variable(s) that contribute(s) to the signal of the multivariate extension of the exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) chart is presented. The procedure systematically removes one or two variables from the MEWMA statistic calculations. Percentages are calculated for correctly identifying various shifts
On Degrees of Freedom of Projection Estimators with Applications to Multivariate Nonparametric Regression
In this paper, we consider the nonparametric regression problem with
multivariate predictors. We provide a characterization of the degrees of
freedom and divergence for estimators of the unknown regression function, which
are obtained as outputs of linearly constrained quadratic optimization
procedures, namely, minimizers of the least squares criterion with linear
constraints and/or quadratic penalties. As special cases of our results, we
derive explicit expressions for the degrees of freedom in many nonparametric
regression problems, e.g., bounded isotonic regression, multivariate
(penalized) convex regression, and additive total variation regularization. Our
theory also yields, as special cases, known results on the degrees of freedom
of many well-studied estimators in the statistics literature, such as ridge
regression, Lasso and generalized Lasso. Our results can be readily used to
choose the tuning parameter(s) involved in the estimation procedure by
minimizing the Stein's unbiased risk estimate. As a by-product of our analysis
we derive an interesting connection between bounded isotonic regression and
isotonic regression on a general partially ordered set, which is of independent
interest.Comment: 72 pages, 7 figures, Journal of the American Statistical Association
(Theory and Methods), 201
Multiway clustering with time-varying parameters.
This paper proposes a clustering approach for multivariate time series with time-varying parameters in a multiway framework. Although clustering techniques based on time series distribution characteristics have been extensively studied, methods based on time-varying parameters have only recently been explored and are missing for multivariate time series. This paper fills the gap by proposing a multiway approach for distribution-based clustering of multivariate time series. To show the validity of the proposed clustering procedure, we provide both a simulation study and an application to real air quality time series data. [Abstract copyright: © The Author(s) 2022.
Confidence Interval Construction for Multivariate time series using Long Short Term Memory Network
In this paper we propose a novel procedure to construct a confidence interval
for multivariate time series predictions using long short term memory network.
The construction uses a few novel block bootstrap techniques. We also propose
an innovative block length selection procedure for each of these schemes. Two
novel benchmarks help us to compare the construction of this confidence
intervals by different bootstrap techniques. We illustrate the whole
construction through S\&P and Dow Jones Index datasets
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