19,274 research outputs found
Enhancing Stock Movement Prediction with Adversarial Training
This paper contributes a new machine learning solution for stock movement
prediction, which aims to predict whether the price of a stock will be up or
down in the near future. The key novelty is that we propose to employ
adversarial training to improve the generalization of a neural network
prediction model. The rationality of adversarial training here is that the
input features to stock prediction are typically based on stock price, which is
essentially a stochastic variable and continuously changed with time by nature.
As such, normal training with static price-based features (e.g. the close
price) can easily overfit the data, being insufficient to obtain reliable
models. To address this problem, we propose to add perturbations to simulate
the stochasticity of price variable, and train the model to work well under
small yet intentional perturbations. Extensive experiments on two real-world
stock data show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art solution with
3.11% relative improvements on average w.r.t. accuracy, validating the
usefulness of adversarial training for stock prediction task.Comment: IJCAI 201
Multi-Target Prediction: A Unifying View on Problems and Methods
Multi-target prediction (MTP) is concerned with the simultaneous prediction
of multiple target variables of diverse type. Due to its enormous application
potential, it has developed into an active and rapidly expanding research field
that combines several subfields of machine learning, including multivariate
regression, multi-label classification, multi-task learning, dyadic prediction,
zero-shot learning, network inference, and matrix completion. In this paper, we
present a unifying view on MTP problems and methods. First, we formally discuss
commonalities and differences between existing MTP problems. To this end, we
introduce a general framework that covers the above subfields as special cases.
As a second contribution, we provide a structured overview of MTP methods. This
is accomplished by identifying a number of key properties, which distinguish
such methods and determine their suitability for different types of problems.
Finally, we also discuss a few challenges for future research
Response Characterization for Auditing Cell Dynamics in Long Short-term Memory Networks
In this paper, we introduce a novel method to interpret recurrent neural
networks (RNNs), particularly long short-term memory networks (LSTMs) at the
cellular level. We propose a systematic pipeline for interpreting individual
hidden state dynamics within the network using response characterization
methods. The ranked contribution of individual cells to the network's output is
computed by analyzing a set of interpretable metrics of their decoupled step
and sinusoidal responses. As a result, our method is able to uniquely identify
neurons with insightful dynamics, quantify relationships between dynamical
properties and test accuracy through ablation analysis, and interpret the
impact of network capacity on a network's dynamical distribution. Finally, we
demonstrate generalizability and scalability of our method by evaluating a
series of different benchmark sequential datasets
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