2,772 research outputs found
Gaussian process hyper-parameter estimation using parallel asymptotically independent Markov sampling
Gaussian process emulators of computationally expensive computer codes
provide fast statistical approximations to model physical processes. The
training of these surrogates depends on the set of design points chosen to run
the simulator. Due to computational cost, such training set is bound to be
limited and quantifying the resulting uncertainty in the hyper-parameters of
the emulator by uni-modal distributions is likely to induce bias. In order to
quantify this uncertainty, this paper proposes a computationally efficient
sampler based on an extension of Asymptotically Independent Markov Sampling, a
recently developed algorithm for Bayesian inference. Structural uncertainty of
the emulator is obtained as a by-product of the Bayesian treatment of the
hyper-parameters. Additionally, the user can choose to perform stochastic
optimisation to sample from a neighbourhood of the Maximum a Posteriori
estimate, even in the presence of multimodality. Model uncertainty is also
acknowledged through numerical stabilisation measures by including a nugget
term in the formulation of the probability model. The efficiency of the
proposed sampler is illustrated in examples where multi-modal distributions are
encountered. For the purpose of reproducibility, further development, and use
in other applications the code used to generate the examples is freely
available for download at https://github.com/agarbuno/paims_codesComment: Computational Statistics \& Data Analysis, Volume 103, November 201
A view of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms through the lens of Expectation-Maximization
We show that a large class of Estimation of Distribution Algorithms,
including, but not limited to, Covariance Matrix Adaption, can be written as a
Monte Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm, and as exact EM in the limit of
infinite samples. Because EM sits on a rigorous statistical foundation and has
been thoroughly analyzed, this connection provides a new coherent framework
with which to reason about EDAs
Unscented Bayesian Optimization for Safe Robot Grasping
We address the robot grasp optimization problem of unknown objects
considering uncertainty in the input space. Grasping unknown objects can be
achieved by using a trial and error exploration strategy. Bayesian optimization
is a sample efficient optimization algorithm that is especially suitable for
this setups as it actively reduces the number of trials for learning about the
function to optimize. In fact, this active object exploration is the same
strategy that infants do to learn optimal grasps. One problem that arises while
learning grasping policies is that some configurations of grasp parameters may
be very sensitive to error in the relative pose between the object and robot
end-effector. We call these configurations unsafe because small errors during
grasp execution may turn good grasps into bad grasps. Therefore, to reduce the
risk of grasp failure, grasps should be planned in safe areas. We propose a new
algorithm, Unscented Bayesian optimization that is able to perform sample
efficient optimization while taking into consideration input noise to find safe
optima. The contribution of Unscented Bayesian optimization is twofold as if
provides a new decision process that drives exploration to safe regions and a
new selection procedure that chooses the optimal in terms of its safety without
extra analysis or computational cost. Both contributions are rooted on the
strong theory behind the unscented transformation, a popular nonlinear
approximation method. We show its advantages with respect to the classical
Bayesian optimization both in synthetic problems and in realistic robot grasp
simulations. The results highlights that our method achieves optimal and robust
grasping policies after few trials while the selected grasps remain in safe
regions.Comment: conference pape
-SELC: Optimization by sequential elimination of level combinations using genetic algorithms and Gaussian processes
Identifying promising compounds from a vast collection of feasible compounds
is an important and yet challenging problem in the pharmaceutical industry. An
efficient solution to this problem will help reduce the expenditure at the
early stages of drug discovery. In an attempt to solve this problem, Mandal, Wu
and Johnson [Technometrics 48 (2006) 273--283] proposed the SELC algorithm.
Although powerful, it fails to extract substantial information from the data to
guide the search efficiently, as this methodology is not based on any
statistical modeling. The proposed approach uses Gaussian Process (GP) modeling
to improve upon SELC, and hence named -SELC. The performance of
the proposed methodology is illustrated using four and five dimensional test
functions. Finally, we implement the new algorithm on a real pharmaceutical
data set for finding a group of chemical compounds with optimal properties.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/08-AOAS199 the Annals of
Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org
Bayesian Optimization for Adaptive MCMC
This paper proposes a new randomized strategy for adaptive MCMC using
Bayesian optimization. This approach applies to non-differentiable objective
functions and trades off exploration and exploitation to reduce the number of
potentially costly objective function evaluations. We demonstrate the strategy
in the complex setting of sampling from constrained, discrete and densely
connected probabilistic graphical models where, for each variation of the
problem, one needs to adjust the parameters of the proposal mechanism
automatically to ensure efficient mixing of the Markov chains.Comment: This paper contains 12 pages and 6 figures. A similar version of this
paper has been submitted to AISTATS 2012 and is currently under revie
Q-CP: Learning Action Values for Cooperative Planning
Research on multi-robot systems has demonstrated promising results in manifold applications and domains. Still, efficiently learning an effective robot behaviors is very difficult, due to unstructured scenarios, high uncertainties, and large state dimensionality (e.g. hyper-redundant and groups of robot). To alleviate this problem, we present Q-CP a cooperative model-based reinforcement learning algorithm, which exploits action values to both (1) guide the exploration of the state space and (2) generate effective policies. Specifically, we exploit Q-learning to attack the curse-of-dimensionality in the iterations of a Monte-Carlo Tree Search. We implement and evaluate Q-CP on different stochastic cooperative (general-sum) games: (1) a simple cooperative navigation problem among 3 robots, (2) a cooperation scenario between a pair of KUKA YouBots performing hand-overs, and (3) a coordination task between two mobile robots entering a door. The obtained results show the effectiveness of Q-CP in the chosen applications, where action values drive the exploration and reduce the computational demand of the planning process while achieving good performance
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