Multi-aircraft conflict detection and resolution based on probabilistic reach sets

In this brief, a novel scheme to multi-aircraft conflict detection and resolution is introduced. A key feature of the proposed scheme is that uncertainty affecting the aircraft future positions along some look-ahead prediction horizon is accounted for via a probabilistic reachability analysis approach. In particular, ellipsoidal probabilistic reach sets are determined by formulating a chance-constrained optimization problem and solving it via a simulation-based method called scenario approach. Conflict detection is then performed by verifying if the ellipsoidal reach sets of different aircraft intersect. If a conflict is detected, then the aircraft flight plans are redesigned by solving a second-order cone program resting on the approximation of the ellipsoidal reach sets with spheres with constant radius along the look-ahead horizon. A bisection procedure allows one to determine the minimum radius such that the ellipsoidal reach sets of different aircraft along the corresponding new flight plans do not intersect. Some numerical examples are presented to show the efficacy of the proposed scheme

A Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Scheme for Multi-Aircraft Conflict Resolution

Multi-Aircraft Conflict Resolution (MACR) is a Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) problem, which involves multiple stakeholders (airline, air traffic controller, and aircraft) with competing and incommensurable objectives. This paper proposes a two-step MCDM scheme to the solution of MACR. In the first step, a second order cone program is adopted to generate a set of candidate resolution strategies with different minimum separations between trajectories. Each candidate strategy is then evaluated via three criteria modeling the interests of the stakeholders. In the second step, the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) approach is used to determine the best strategy that realizes an adequate tradeoff among the competing interests while coping with their incommensurability. Some numerical results are presented to show the efficacy of the proposed scheme. Interestingly, the minimum separations associated with the best resolution strategies according to either the interest of the airline or that of the aircraft both differ from the one adopted in the current air traffic control operation

MODELLING AND SYSTEMATIC EVALUATION OF MARITIME TRAFFIC SITUATION IN COMPLEX WATERS

Maritime Situational Awareness (MSA) plays a vital role in the development of intelligent transportation support systems. The surge in maritime traffic, combined with increasing vessel sizes and speeds, has intensified the complexity and risk of maritime traffic. This escalation presents a considerable challenge to the current systems and tools dedicated to maritime traffic monitoring and management. Meanwhile, the existing literature on advanced MSA methods and techniques is relatively limited, especially when it comes to addressing multi-ship interactions that may involve hybrid traffic of manned ships and emerging autonomous ships in complex and restricted waters in the future. The primary research question revolves around the challenge faced by current collision risk models in incorporating the impact of traffic characteristics in complex waters. This limitation hampers their effectiveness in managing complex maritime traffic situations. In view of this, the research aims to investigate and analyse the traffic characteristics in complex port waters and develop a set of advanced MSA methods and models in a holistic manner, so as to enhance maritime traffic situation perception capabilities and strengthen decision-making on anti-collision risk control. This study starts with probabilistic conflict detection by incorporating the dynamics and uncertainty that may be involved in ship movements. Then, the conflict criticality and spatial distance indicators are used together to partition the regional ship traffic into several compact, scalable, and interpretable clusters from both static and dynamic perspectives. On this basis, a systematic multi-scale collision risk approach is newly proposed to estimate the collision risk of a given traffic scenario from different spatial scales. The novelty of this research lies not only in the development of new modelling techniques on MSA that have never been done by using various advanced techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo simulation, image processing techniques, graph-based clustering techniques, complex network theory, and fuzzy clustering iterative method) but also in the consideration of the impact of traffic characteristics in complex waters, such as multi-dependent conflicts, restricted water topography, and dynamic and uncertain ship motion behaviours. Extensive numerical experiments based on real AIS data in the world's busiest and most complex water area (i.e., Ningbo_Zhoushan Port, China) are carried out to evaluate the models’ performance. The research results show that the proposed models have rational and reliable performance in detecting potential collision danger under an uncertain environment, identifying high-risk traffic clusters, offering a complete comprehension of a traffic situation, and supporting strategic maritime safety management. These developed techniques and models provide useful insights and valuable implications for maritime practitioners on traffic surveillance and management, benefiting the safety and efficiency enhancement of maritime transportation. The research can also be tailored for a wide range of applications given its generalization ability in tackling various traffic scenarios in complex waters. It is believed that this work would make significant contributions in terms of 1) improving traffic safety management from an operational perspective without high financial requirements on infrastructure updating and 2) effectively supporting intelligent maritime surveillance and serving as a theoretical basis of promoting maritime safety management for the complex traffic of mixed manned and autonomous ships