Multi-Channel Sequential Search with Application to Piracy

This paper presents a multi-channel search model, where each channel consists of multiple firms that are ex ante homogeneous to consumers. Consumers, nevertheless, ex ante can tell channels apart in the following aspects: search costs, product quality, product availability and price distributions. We first analyze the channel selection problem and show that a consumer’s optimal channel selection at any stage of the search is independent of found prices. We further show that the optimal channel choice can be determined using each channel’s reservation price and consumer valuation. We then apply this model to study the competition between legitimate and pirated products. One immediate result is reducing piracy services has no impact on consumers’ decision to pirate. When pirated products pose a threat, legitimate firms may respond by giving up low search cost consumers. This leads to the surprising result that piracy threat may induce firms to increase their product prices

Bowtie models as preventive models in maritime safety

Aquest treball ha sorgit d’una proposta del Dr. Rodrigo de Larrucea que ha acabat de publicar un llibre ambiciós sobre Seguretat Marítima. Com ell mateix diu, el tema “excedeix amb molt les potencialitats de l’autor”, així que en el meu cas això és més cert. Es pot aspirar, però, a fer una modesta contribució a l’estudi i difusió de la seguretat de la cultura marítima, que només apareix a les notícies quan tenen lloc desastres molt puntuals. En qualsevol cas, el professor em va proposar que em centrés en els Bowtie Models, models en corbatí, que integren l’arbre de causes y el de conseqüències (en anglès el Fault Tree Analysis, FTA, i l’Event Tree Analysis, ETA). Certament, existeixen altres metodologies i aproximacions (i en el seu llibre en presenta vàries, resumides), però per la seva senzillesa conceptual i possibilitat de generalització i integració dels resultats era una bona aposta. Així, després d’una fase de meditació i recopilació de informació, em vaig decidir a presentar un model en corbatí molt general on caben les principals causes d’accidents (factores ambientals, error humà i fallada mecànica), comptant també que pot existir una combinació de causes. De tota manera, a l’hora d’explotar aquest model existeix la gran dificultat de donar una probabilitat de ocurrència, un nombre entre 0 i 1, a cada branca. Normalment les probabilitats d’ocurrència són petites i degut a això difícils d’estimar. Cada accident és diferent, de grans catàstrofes n’hi ha poques, i cada accident ja és estudiat de manera exhaustiva (més exhaustiva quan més greu és). Un altre factor que dificulta l’estima de la probabilitat de fallada és l’evolució constant del món marítim, tant des del punt de vista tècnic, de formació, legal i fins i tot generacional doncs cada generació de marins és diferent. Els esforços estan doncs enfocats a augmentar la seguretat, encara que sempre amb un ull posat sobre els costs. Així, he presentat un model en corbatí pel seu valor didàctic i gràfic però sense entrar en detalls numèrics, que si s’escau ja aniré afinant i interioritzant en l’exercici de la professió. En aquest treball també he intentat no mantenir-me totalment al costat de la teoria (ja se sap que si tot es fa bé, tot surt perfecte, etc…) sinó presentar amb cert detall 2 casos ben coneguts d’accidents marítims: el petroler Exxon Valdez, el 1989 i el ferry Estonia en 1994, entre altres esmentats. Són casos ja una mica vells però que van contribuir a augmentar la cultura de la seguretat, fins a arribar al nivell del que gaudim actualment, al menys als països occidentals. Doncs la seguretat, com esmenta Rodrigo de Larrucea “és una actitud i mai és fortuïta; sempre és el resultat d’una voluntat decidida, un esforç sincer, una direcció intel·ligent i una execució acurada. Sens lloc a dubtes, sempre suposa la millor alternativa”. The work has been inspired in its initial aspects by the book of my tutor Jaime Rodrigo de Larrucea, that presents a state of the art of all the maritime aspects related to safety. Evidently, since it covers all the topics, it cannot deepen on every topic. It was my opportunity to deepen in the Bowtie Model but finally I have also covered a wide variety of topics. Later, when I began to study the topics, I realized that the people in the maritime world usually do not understand to a great extent statistics. Everybody is concerned about safety but few nautical students take a probabilistic approach to the accidents. For this it is extremely important to study the population that is going to be studied: in our case the SOLAS ships Also, during my time at Riga, I have been very concerned with the most diverse accidents, some of them studied during the courses at Barcelona. I have seen that it is difficult to model mathematically the accidents, since each one has different characteristics, angles, and surely there are not 2 equal. Finally, it was accorded that I should concentrate on the Bowtie Model, which is not very complex from a statistical point of view. It is simply a fault tree of events model and a tree of effects. I present some examples in this Chapter 2. The difficulty I point out is to try to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of events that are unusual. We concentrated at major accidents, those that may cause victims or heavy losses. Then, for the sake of generality, at Chapter 4, I have divided the causes in 4 great classes: Natural hazards, human factor, mechanical failure and attacks (piracy and terrorism). The last concern maybe should not be included beside the others since terrorism and piracy acts are not accidents, but since there is an important code dedicated to prevent security threats, ISPS, it is example of design of barriers to prevent an undesired event (although it gives mainly guidelines to follow by the States, Port Terminals and Shipping Companies). I have presented a detailed study of the tragedy of the Estonia, showing how a mechanical failure triggered the failure of the ferry, by its nature a delicate ship, but there were other factors such as poor maintenance and heavy seas. At the next Chapter, certain characteristics of error chains are analyzed. Finally, the conclusions are drawn, offering a pretty optimistic view of the safety (and security) culture at the Western World but that may not easily permeate the entire World, due to the associated costs

An Economist’s Guide to Digital Music

In this guide, we discuss the impact of digitalization on the music industry. We rely on market and survey data at the international level as well as expert statements from the industry. The guide investigates recent developments in legal and technological protection of digital music and describes new business models as well as consumers' attitude towards music downloads and audio-streaming. We conclude the guide by a discussion of the evolution of the music industry.music, internet, file-sharing, peer-to-peer, piracy, digital rights management, copyright, e-commerce

Preventing integrated circuit piracy using reconfigurable logic barriers

With each new feature size, integrated circuit (IC) manufacturing costs increase. Rising expenses cause the once vertical IC supply chain to flatten out. Companies are increasing their reliance on contractors, often foreign, to supplement their supply chain deficiencies as they no longer can provide all of the services themselves. This shift has brought with it several security concerns classified under three categories: (1) Metering - controlling the number of ICs created and for whom. (2) Theft - controlling the dissemination of intellectual property (IP). (3) Trust - controlling the confidence in the IC post-fabrication. Our research focuses on providing a solution to the metering problem by restricting an attacker\u27s access to the IC design. Our solution modifies the CAD tool flow in order to identify locations in the circuit which can be protected with reconfigurable logic barriers. These barriers require the correct key to be present for information to flow through. Incorrect key values render the IC useless as the flow of information is blocked. Our selection heuristics utilize observability and controllability don\u27t care sets along with a node\u27s location in the network to maximize an attacker\u27s burden while keeping in mind the associated overhead. We implement our approach in an open-source logic synthesis tool, compare it against previous solutions and evaluate its effectiveness against a knowledgeable attacker