Gender convergence in human survival and the postponement of death

It has been a long accepted demographic maxim that females outlive males. Using data for England and Wales, we show that life expectancy at age 30 is converging and continuation of this long-term trend suggests it could reach parity in 2030. Key among the reasons identified for the narrowing of the gap are differences in smoking prevalence between males and females which have narrowed considerably. Using data from 30 comparator countries gender differences in smoking prevalence are found to explain over 75% of the variance in the life expectancy gap, but other factors such as female emancipation and better health care are also considered. The paper presents a model which considers differences in male and female longevity in greater detail using novel methods for analysing life tables. It considers the ages from which death is being postponed to the ages at which people now die; the relative speed at which these changes are taking place between genders; how the changes observed are affecting survival prospects at different ages up to 2030. It finds that as life expectancy continues to rise there is evidence for convergence in the oldest ages to which either gender will live

Diverging trends in female old-age mortality: A reappraisal

Over the second half of the 20th century a number of divergences and convergences of mortality schedules were observed across the world. Some of these developments remain incompletely understood. In recent overviews of old-age female mortality Mesle and Vallin (2006, Population and Development Review) and Rau, Soroko, Jasilionis, and Vaupel (2008, Population and Development Review) describe two contrasting patterns of mortality change between the mid-1980s and the end of the 20th century: a pattern of a large decrease in mortality exhibited by France and Japan and a pattern of a smaller decrease, stability or a certain increase in mortality shown by Denmark, the United States and the Netherlands. No satisfactory explanation of this phenomenon has been proposed so far. This paper shows that the divergence is, to a very significant extent, due to the differential impact of smoking related mortality on female populations of France and Japan versus Denmark, the United States and the Netherlands. The end to the diverging trends is demonstrated. Other lifestyle factors potentially implicated in the divergence are also discussed.convergence, divergences, health transition, mortality, smoking

The Cancer Transition in Japan since 1951

The overall trend of cancer mortality in Japan has been decreasing since the 1960s (age-standardized death rates for ages 30-69), though trends differ enormously among various forms of the disease. Cancer mortality was heavily influenced by Japanese postwar economic recovery, which led to improved living conditions and better control of infectious agents known to cause some common forms of cancer (stomach, cervical). However, Japanese wealth and development have also been associated with risky personal behaviors (smoking, drinking) and other conditions, leading to increases in cancers with no known or else very weak links to infection. This shift away from infectious and toward non-infectious causes of prevalent forms of cancers is called the "cancer transition," by analogy to Omran's "epidemiologic transition." We suggest that the cancer transition described here in the case of Japan must be a part of efforts to revise and update the epidemiologic transition, which should incorporate new knowledge about the role of infection in chronic disease morbidity and mortality.cancer, cancer transition, epidemiologic transition, health, health and development, infectious diseases, Japan, mortality, non-infectious disease

A modified new method for estimating smoking-attributable mortality in high-income countries

Preston, Glei, and Wilmoth (2010) recently proposed an innovative regression-based method to estimate smoking-attributable mortality in developed countries based on observed lung cancer death rates. Their estimates for females, however, differ appreciably from some published estimates. This article presents a modified version of the Preston, Glei, and Wilmoth method that includes an age-period interaction term in its model. This modified version produces improved estimates of smoking-attributable mortality that are consistent with results from a modified version of the Peto-Lopez indirect method.life expectancy, mortality, smoking

Narrowing Sex Differential in Life Expectancy in Canada and Austria: Comparative Analysis

Throughout most of the 20th century the sex gap in life expectancy in the industrialised countries widened in favour of women. By the early 1980s a reversal in the long-term pattern of this differential occurred in some countries, where it reached a maximum and thereafter has followed a declining trend. It is argued in this study that this development represents an emerging feature of the epidemiological profile of post-industrial societies. I look at Canada and Austria as two representative cases of this phenomenon over roughly three decades, between 1970 and 2001. Decomposition analysis shows that reduced sex differences in life expectancy in the 1980s and 1990s obtained mainly from the effects of reduced sex differences in mortality with respect to heart disease, and secondarily accidents and violence and lung cancer. Heart disease has played a larger role in Canada, whereas differential mortality from accidents and violence has been of greater importance in Austria. A further aspect of the investigation links sex differences in smoking prevalence to sex differences in life expectancy. A model is suggested that incorporates female labour force participation and a measure of gender role traditionalism in society as factors in female smoking prevalence. These variables are also postulated to correlate with change in the sex gap in life expectancy by a time lag of twenty years. It is found that sex differences in smoking prevalence in the past are related to sex difference in life expectancy in the present, and that female labour force participation and gender role traditionalism are also associated with the sex gap in expectation of life. The findings are interpreted in reference to epidemiological transition theory and the literature concerning change in the position of women and sex differences in mortality in high-income nations.

Trends in gender differences in accidents mortality

This study tests five hypotheses concerning trends in gender differences in accidents mortality and accident-related behavior, using data for the US, UK, France, Italy, and Japan, 1950-98. As predicted by the Convergence Hypothesis, gender differences have decreased for amount of driving, motor vehicle accidents mortality, and occupational accidents mortality. However, for many types of accidents mortality, gender differences were stable or increased; these trends often resulted from the differential impact on male and female mortality of general societal trends such as increased illicit drug use or improved health care. Similarly, trends in gender differences in accident-related behavior have shown substantial variation and appear to have been influenced by multiple factors, including gender differences in rates of adoption of different types of innovations.accidents, convergence, diffusion of innovations, Europe, gender, gender differences, Japan, mortality, sex differences, unintentional injuries, USA

Unusually small sex differentials in mortality of Israeli Jews: What does the structure of causes of death tell us?

Since the establishment of Israel sex differentials in life expectancy at birth exhibited by Israeli Jews have been very low in comparison to other developed countries as a result of relatively high male and relatively low female life expectancy. To advance understanding of this phenomenon this paper explores cause-specific contributions to the difference in life expectancy between Israeli Jews and Western countries, for each sex, and to sex differentials in mortality in both populations. We quantify the major types of behaviourally induced mortality to show that it is especially low among Israeli Jewish males. We also investigate mortality in certain subgroups of Israeli Jews to gain a better understanding of female mortality in this population.Israel, Jews, migration, mortality, sex differentials

The future of death in America

Population mortality forecasts are widely used for allocating public health expenditures, setting research priorities, and evaluating the viability of public pensions, private pensions, and health care financing systems. Although we know a great deal about patterns in and causes of mortality, most forecasts are still based on simple linear extrapolations that ignore covariates and other prior information. We adapt a Bayesian hierarchical forecasting model capable of including more known health and demographic information than has previously been possible. This leads to the first age- and sex-specific forecasts of American mortality that simultaneously incorporate, in a formal statistical model, the effects of the recent rapid increase in obesity, the steady decline in tobacco consumption, and the well known patterns of smooth mortality age profiles and time trends. Formally including new information in forecasts can matter a great deal. For example, we estimate an increase in male life expectancy at birth from 76.2 years in 2010 to 79.9 years in 2030, which is 1.8 years greater than the U.S. Social Security Administration projection and 1.5 years more than U.S. Census projection. For females, we estimate more modest gains in life expectancy at birth over the next twenty years from 80.5 years to 81.9 years, which is virtually identical to the Social Security Administration projection and 2.0 years less than U.S. Census projections. We show that these patterns are also likely to greatly affect the aging American population structure. We offer an easy-to-use approach so that researchers can include other sources of information and potentially improve on our forecasts too.age dependency, forecasting, mortality, obesity, smoking