Discriminative conditional restricted Boltzmann machine for discrete choice and latent variable modelling

Conventional methods of estimating latent behaviour generally use attitudinal questions which are subjective and these survey questions may not always be available. We hypothesize that an alternative approach can be used for latent variable estimation through an undirected graphical models. For instance, non-parametric artificial neural networks. In this study, we explore the use of generative non-parametric modelling methods to estimate latent variables from prior choice distribution without the conventional use of measurement indicators. A restricted Boltzmann machine is used to represent latent behaviour factors by analyzing the relationship information between the observed choices and explanatory variables. The algorithm is adapted for latent behaviour analysis in discrete choice scenario and we use a graphical approach to evaluate and understand the semantic meaning from estimated parameter vector values. We illustrate our methodology on a financial instrument choice dataset and perform statistical analysis on parameter sensitivity and stability. Our findings show that through non-parametric statistical tests, we can extract useful latent information on the behaviour of latent constructs through machine learning methods and present strong and significant influence on the choice process. Furthermore, our modelling framework shows robustness in input variability through sampling and validation

Survey on Evaluation Methods for Dialogue Systems

In this paper we survey the methods and concepts developed for the evaluation of dialogue systems. Evaluation is a crucial part during the development process. Often, dialogue systems are evaluated by means of human evaluations and questionnaires. However, this tends to be very cost and time intensive. Thus, much work has been put into finding methods, which allow to reduce the involvement of human labour. In this survey, we present the main concepts and methods. For this, we differentiate between the various classes of dialogue systems (task-oriented dialogue systems, conversational dialogue systems, and question-answering dialogue systems). We cover each class by introducing the main technologies developed for the dialogue systems and then by presenting the evaluation methods regarding this class

Prediction of rare feature combinations in population synthesis: Application of deep generative modelling

In population synthesis applications, when considering populations with many attributes, a fundamental problem is the estimation of rare combinations of feature attributes. Unsurprisingly, it is notably more difficult to reliably representthe sparser regions of such multivariate distributions and in particular combinations of attributes which are absent from the original sample. In the literature this is commonly known as sampling zeros for which no systematic solution has been proposed so far. In this paper, two machine learning algorithms, from the family of deep generative models,are proposed for the problem of population synthesis and with particular attention to the problem of sampling zeros. Specifically, we introduce the Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network (WGAN) and the Variational Autoencoder(VAE), and adapt these algorithms for a large-scale population synthesis application. The models are implemented on a Danish travel survey with a feature-space of more than 60 variables. The models are validated in a cross-validation scheme and a set of new metrics for the evaluation of the sampling-zero problem is proposed. Results show how these models are able to recover sampling zeros while keeping the estimation of truly impossible combinations, the structural zeros, at a comparatively low level. Particularly, for a low dimensional experiment, the VAE, the marginal sampler and the fully random sampler generate 5%, 21% and 26%, respectively, more structural zeros per sampling zero generated by the WGAN, while for a high dimensional case, these figures escalate to 44%, 2217% and 170440%, respectively. This research directly supports the development of agent-based systems and in particular cases where detailed socio-economic or geographical representations are required