Model Epidemik Tuberkulosis Seir dengan Terapi pada Individu Terinfeksi

The spread of tuberculosis (TB) among individuals in the population can be described by the epidemic model, which is a mathematical model that divides the population into four subpopulations i.e. susceptible ( ), exposed ( ), infected ( ), and recovered ( ). The objective of this research is to build an epidemic model for TB transmission by involving total therapy rate ( ) in infected subpopulation. To illustrate the effects of , a numerical simulation with different values of was also carried out using R software. The results showed that the greater value of the total therapy rate, the decrease in the number of in­dividuals in infected subpopulation became faster

Progression from latent infection to active disease in dynamic tuberculosis transmission models: a systematic review of the validity of modelling assumptions

Mathematical modelling is commonly used to evaluate infectious disease control policy and is influential in shaping policy and budgets. Mathematical models necessarily make assumptions about disease natural history and, if these assumptions are not valid, the results of these studies can be biased. We did a systematic review of published tuberculosis transmission models to assess the validity of assumptions about progression to active disease after initial infection (PROSPERO ID CRD42016030009). We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Biosis, and Cochrane Library, and included studies from the earliest available date (Jan 1, 1962) to Aug 31, 2017. We identified 312 studies that met inclusion criteria. Predicted tuberculosis incidence varied widely across studies for each risk factor investigated. For population groups with no individual risk factors, annual incidence varied by several orders of magnitude, and 20-year cumulative incidence ranged from close to 0% to 100%. A substantial proportion of modelled results were inconsistent with empirical evidence: for 10-year cumulative incidence, 40% of modelled results were more than double or less than half the empirical estimates. These results demonstrate substantial disagreement between modelling studies on a central feature of tuberculosis natural history. Greater attention to reproducing known features of epidemiology would strengthen future tuberculosis modelling studies, and readers of modelling studies are recommended to assess how well those studies demonstrate their validity

Modeling the Spread of Tuberculosis in Semiclosed Communities

We address the problem of long-term dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) and latent tuberculosis (LTB) in semiclosed communities. These communities are congregate settings with the potential for sustained daily contact for weeks, months, and even years between their members. Basic examples of these communities are prisons, but certain urban/rural communities, some schools, among others could possibly fit well into this definition. These communities present a sort of ideal conditions for TB spread. In order to describe key relevant dynamics of the disease in these communities, we consider a five compartments SEIR model with five possible routes toward TB infection: primary infection after a contact with infected and infectious individuals (fast TB), endogenous reactivation after a period of latency (slow TB), relapse by natural causes after a cure, exogenous reinfection of latently infected, and exogenous reinfection of recovered individuals. We discuss the possible existence of multiple endemic equilibrium states and the role that the two types of exogenous reinfections in the long-term dynamics of the disease could play