Augmented Human Machine Intelligence for Distributed Inference

With the advent of the internet of things (IoT) era and the extensive deployment of smart devices and wireless sensor networks (WSNs), interactions of humans and machine data are everywhere. In numerous applications, humans are essential parts in the decision making process, where they may either serve as information sources or act as the final decision makers. For various tasks including detection and classification of targets, detection of outliers, generation of surveillance patterns and interactions between entities, seamless integration of the human and the machine expertise is required where they simultaneously work within the same modeling environment to understand and solve problems. Efficient fusion of information from both human and sensor sources is expected to improve system performance and enhance situational awareness. Such human-machine inference networks seek to build an interactive human-machine symbiosis by merging the best of the human with the best of the machine and to achieve higher performance than either humans or machines by themselves. In this dissertation, we consider that people often have a number of biases and rely on heuristics when exposed to different kinds of uncertainties, e.g., limited information versus unreliable information. We develop novel theoretical frameworks for collaborative decision making in complex environments when the observers may include both humans and physics-based sensors. We address fundamental concerns such as uncertainties, cognitive biases in human decision making and derive human decision rules in binary decision making. We model the decision-making by generic humans working in complex networked environments that feature uncertainties, and develop new approaches and frameworks facilitating collaborative human decision making and cognitive multi-modal fusion. The first part of this dissertation exploits the behavioral economics concept Prospect Theory to study the behavior of human binary decision making under cognitive biases. Several decision making systems involving humans\u27 participation are discussed, and we show the impact of human cognitive biases on the decision making performance. We analyze how heterogeneity could affect the performance of collaborative human decision making in the presence of complex correlation relationships among the behavior of humans and design the human selection strategy at the population level. Next, we employ Prospect Theory to model the rationality of humans and accurately characterize their behaviors in answering binary questions. We design a weighted majority voting rule to solve classification problems via crowdsourcing while considering that the crowd may include some spammers. We also propose a novel sequential task ordering algorithm to improve system performance for classification in crowdsourcing composed of unreliable human workers. In the second part of the dissertation, we study the behavior of cognitive memory limited humans in binary decision making and develop efficient approaches to help memory constrained humans make better decisions. We show that the order in which information is presented to the humans impacts their decision making performance. Next, we consider the selfish behavior of humans and construct a unified incentive mechanism for IoT based inference systems while addressing the selfish concerns of the participants. We derive the optimal amount of energy that a selfish sensor involved in the signal detection task must spend in order to maximize a certain utility function, in the presence of buyers who value the result of signal detection carried out by the sensor. Finally, we design a human-machine collaboration framework that blends both machine observations and human expertise to solve binary hypothesis testing problems semi-autonomously. In networks featuring human-machine teaming/collaboration, it is critical to coordinate and synthesize the operations of the humans and machines (e.g., robots and physical sensors). Machine measurements affect human behaviors, actions, and decisions. Human behavior defines the optimal decision-making algorithm for human-machine networks. In today\u27s era of artificial intelligence, we not only aim to exploit augmented human-machine intelligence to ensure accurate decision making; but also expand intelligent systems so as to assist and improve such intelligence

(WP 2014-03) Bounded Rationality and Bounded Individuality

This paper argues that since the utility function conception of the individual is derived from standard rationality theory, the view that rationality is bounded suggests that individuality should also be seen as bounded. The meaning of this idea is developed in terms of two ways in which individuality can be said to be bounded, with one bound associated with Kahneman and Tversky’s prospect theory and the ‘new’ behavioral economics and a second bound associated with Simon’s evolutionary thinking and the ‘old’ behavioral economics. The paper then shows how different bounded individuality conceptions operate in nudge economics, agent-based modeling, and social identity theory, explaining these conceptions in terms of how they relate to these two behavioral economics views of bounded rationality. How both the ‘new’ and ‘old’ individuality bounds might then be combined in a single account is briefly explored in connection with Kirman’s Marseille fish market analysis

A heuristic model of bounded route choice in urban areas

There is substantial evidence to indicate that route choice in urban areas is complex cognitive process, conducted under uncertainty and formed on partial perspectives. Yet, conventional route choice models continue make simplistic assumptions around the nature of human cognitive ability, memory and preference. In this paper, a novel framework for route choice in urban areas is introduced, aiming to more accurately reflect the uncertain, bounded nature of route choice decision making. Two main advances are introduced. The first involves the definition of a hierarchical model of space representing the relationship between urban features and human cognition, combining findings from both the extensive previous literature on spatial cognition and a large route choice dataset. The second advance involves the development of heuristic rules for route choice decisions, building upon the hierarchical model of urban space. The heuristics describe the process by which quick, 'good enough' decisions are made when individuals are faced with uncertainty. This element of the model is once more constructed and parameterised according to findings from prior research and the trends identified within a large routing dataset. The paper outlines the implementation of the framework within a real-world context, validating the results against observed behaviours. Conclusions are offered as to the extension and improvement of this approach, outlining its potential as an alternative to other route choice modelling frameworks