Complex network analysis and nonlinear dynamics

This chapter aims at reviewing complex network and nonlinear dynamical models and methods that were either developed for or applied to socioeconomic issues, and pertinent to the theme of New Economic Geography. After an introduction to the foundations of the field of complex networks, the present summary introduces some applications of complex networks to economics, finance, epidemic spreading of innovations, and regional trade and developments. The chapter also reviews results involving applications of complex networks to other relevant socioeconomic issue

The Political Economy of A Trade-First Approach to Regionalism

Regional integration has become commonplace in the world economy. Moreover, there is clear evidence of a ‘trade first’ approach to regionalism. What is the logic behind this approach? Is it that trade integration prepares the ground for monetary integration by helping to fulfil optimum currency area criteria? Having analysed the economic interrelationship between regional trade integration and monetary union, the paper contends that the ‘trade first’ strategy can instead be explained in political economy terms; there is a higher political return to trade integration. The paper concludes by examining the implications for the future of both regionalism and multilateralism.

Does a Monetary Union protect again foreign shocks? An assessment of Latin American integration using a Bayesian VAR

This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries –Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study whether this set of countries is characterized by business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks, a strong similarity in the adjustment process and the convergence of policy responses. We focus especially our attention on two points. First, we try to determine to what extent international disturbances influence the domestic business cycles through trade and/or financial channels. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries' responses to shocks. All these features are the main issues in the literature relative to regional integration and OCA process.bayesian VAR ; business cycles ; Latin American countries ; optimum currency area

A Semantic Graph-Based Approach for Mining Common Topics From Multiple Asynchronous Text Streams

In the age of Web 2.0, a substantial amount of unstructured content are distributed through multiple text streams in an asynchronous fashion, which makes it increasingly difficult to glean and distill useful information. An effective way to explore the information in text streams is topic modelling, which can further facilitate other applications such as search, information browsing, and pattern mining. In this paper, we propose a semantic graph based topic modelling approach for structuring asynchronous text streams. Our model in- tegrates topic mining and time synchronization, two core modules for addressing the problem, into a unified model. Specifically, for handling the lexical gap issues, we use global semantic graphs of each timestamp for capturing the hid- den interaction among entities from all the text streams. For dealing with the sources asynchronism problem, local semantic graphs are employed to discover similar topics of different entities that can be potentially separated by time gaps. Our experiment on two real-world datasets shows that the proposed model significantly outperforms the existing ones

Detecting early signs of the 2007-2008 crisis in the world trade

Since 2007, several contributions have tried to identify early-warning signals of the financial crisis. However, the vast majority of analyses has focused on financial systems and little theoretical work has been done on the economic counterpart. In the present paper we fill this gap and employ the theoretical tools of network theory to shed light on the response of world trade to the financial crisis of 2007 and the economic recession of 2008-2009. We have explored the evolution of the bipartite World Trade Web (WTW) across the years 1995-2010, monitoring the behavior of the system both before and after 2007. Our analysis shows early structural changes in the WTW topology: since 2003, the WTW becomes increasingly compatible with the picture of a network where correlations between countries and products are progressively lost. Moreover, the WTW structural modification can be considered as concluded in 2010, after a seemingly stationary phase of three years. We have also refined our analysis by considering specific subsets of countries and products: the most statistically significant early-warning signals are provided by the most volatile macrosectors, especially when measured on developing countries, suggesting the emerging economies as being the most sensitive ones to the global economic cycles.Comment: 18 pages, 9 figure

Sequencing Trade and Monetary Integration

Regional integration for at least the last sixty years has focused on trade integration. Balassa’s canonical taxonomy of regional trading arrangements is often interpreted as a sequence from free trade area through customs union and common market to economic union. In the 1980s the concept of deep integration went beyond trade with its focus on policy harmonization, which came to include monetary integration, but it presupposed trade integration as the first step in the regional integration sequence. In Asia there has been very little trade integration through regional agreements - ASEAN is the most ambitious project, but even there actual achievements in trade integration have been limited. When discussion of monetary integration began in East Asia after 1997, it was in the absence of trade integration. The conventional view would see this as an obstacle to greater regional integration, but some proponents of Asian regionalism saw monetary integration as a step towards promoting trade integration, reversing the orthodox sequence. The two theoretical literatures (customs union theory and optimal currency area theory) were distinct and there remains a disconnect between the trade and monetary integration literature. This paper re- evaluates the global cross-country evidence on the relationship between trade integration and monetary union. It then applies the results to the prospects for monetary union before trade integration in East Asia, and to the consequences of monetary union for trade integration.currency union; customs union