Modeling and Parameter Estimation of a Small Wind Generation System

En este artículo se presentan el modelado y la estimación de parámetros de un sistema de generación eólico de baja potencia. El sistema está conformado por: una turbina eólica, un generador de imanes permanentes, un rectificador trifásico y una carga eléctrica de corriente directa. Para estimar los parámetros se utilizan datos de velocidad de viento registrados con una estación meteorológica ubicada en el Campus Fraternidad del ITM. Los datos de velocidad de viento fueron aplicados a un modelo de referencia programado en el software PSIM y de esta simulación se registraron las variables para estimar los parámetros. El modelo del sistema de generación en conjunto con los parámetros estimados constituye una excelente representación del modelo detallado, ofreciendo mayor flexibilidad que el modelo utilizado en el software PSIM.The modeling and parameter estimation of a small wind generation system is presented in this paper. The system consists of a wind turbine, a permanent magnet synchronous generator, a three phase rectifier, and a direct current load. In order to estimate the parameters wind speed data are registered in a weather station located in the Fraternidad Campus at ITM. Wind speed data were applied to a reference model programed with PSIM software. From that simulation, variables were registered to estimate the parameters. The wind generation system model together with the estimated parameters is an excellent representation of the detailed model, but the estimated model offers a higher flexibility than the programed model in PSIM software

Short and long-term wind turbine power output prediction

In the wind energy industry, it is of great importance to develop models that accurately forecast the power output of a wind turbine, as such predictions are used for wind farm location assessment or power pricing and bidding, monitoring, and preventive maintenance. As a first step, and following the guidelines of the existing literature, we use the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) data to model the wind turbine power curve (WTPC). We explore various parametric and non-parametric approaches for the modeling of the WTPC, such as parametric logistic functions, and non-parametric piecewise linear, polynomial, or cubic spline interpolation functions. We demonstrate that all aforementioned classes of models are rich enough (with respect to their relative complexity) to accurately model the WTPC, as their mean squared error (MSE) is close to the MSE lower bound calculated from the historical data. We further enhance the accuracy of our proposed model, by incorporating additional environmental factors that affect the power output, such as the ambient temperature, and the wind direction. However, all aforementioned models, when it comes to forecasting, seem to have an intrinsic limitation, due to their inability to capture the inherent auto-correlation of the data. To avoid this conundrum, we show that adding a properly scaled ARMA modeling layer increases short-term prediction performance, while keeping the long-term prediction capability of the model

Uncertainty Analysis of the Adequacy Assessment Model of a Distributed Generation System

Due to the inherent aleatory uncertainties in renewable generators, the reliability/adequacy assessments of distributed generation (DG) systems have been particularly focused on the probabilistic modeling of random behaviors, given sufficient informative data. However, another type of uncertainty (epistemic uncertainty) must be accounted for in the modeling, due to incomplete knowledge of the phenomena and imprecise evaluation of the related characteristic parameters. In circumstances of few informative data, this type of uncertainty calls for alternative methods of representation, propagation, analysis and interpretation. In this study, we make a first attempt to identify, model, and jointly propagate aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the context of DG systems modeling for adequacy assessment. Probability and possibility distributions are used to model the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, respectively. Evidence theory is used to incorporate the two uncertainties under a single framework. Based on the plausibility and belief functions of evidence theory, the hybrid propagation approach is introduced. A demonstration is given on a DG system adapted from the IEEE 34 nodes distribution test feeder. Compared to the pure probabilistic approach, it is shown that the hybrid propagation is capable of explicitly expressing the imprecision in the knowledge on the DG parameters into the final adequacy values assessed. It also effectively captures the growth of uncertainties with higher DG penetration levels

A Markovian jump system approach for the estimation and adaptive diagnosis of decreased power generation in wind farms

In this study, a Markovian jump model of the power generation system of a wind turbine is proposed and the authors present a closed-loop model-based observer to estimate the faults related to energy losses. The observer is designed through an H∞-based optimisation problem that optimally fixes the trade-off between the observer fault sensitivity and robustness. The fault estimates are then used in data-based decision mechanisms for achieving fault detection and isolation. The performance of the strategy is then ameliorated in a wind farm (WF) level scheme that uses a bank of the aforementioned observers and decision mechanisms. Finally, the proposed approach is tested using a well-known benchmark in the context of WF fault diagnosis

Reliability assessment of microgrid with renewable generation and prioritized loads

With the increase in awareness about the climate change, there has been a tremendous shift towards utilizing renewable energy sources (RES). In this regard, smart grid technologies have been presented to facilitate higher penetration of RES. Microgrids are the key components of the smart grids. Microgrids allow integration of various distributed energy resources (DER) such as the distributed generation (DGs) and energy storage systems (ESSs) into the distribution system and hence remove or delay the need for distribution expansion. One of the crucial requirements for utilities is to ensure that the system reliability is maintained with the inclusion of microgrid topology. Therefore, this paper evaluates the reliability of a microgrid containing prioritized loads and distributed RES through a hybrid analytical-simulation method. The stochasticity of RES introduces complexity to the reliability evaluation. The method takes into account the variability of RES through Monte- Carlo state sampling simulation. The results indicate the reliability enhancement of the overall system in the presence of the microgrid topology. In particular, the highest priority load has the largest improvement in the reliability indices. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is performed to understand the effects of the failure of microgrid islanding in the case of a fault in the upstream network