19,345 research outputs found
Nonparametric Dynamic State Space Modeling of Observed Circular Time Series with Circular Latent States: A Bayesian Perspective
Circular time series has received relatively little attention in statistics
and modeling complex circular time series using the state space approach is
non-existent in the literature. In this article we introduce a flexible
Bayesian nonparametric approach to state space modeling of observed circular
time series where even the latent states are circular random variables.
Crucially, we assume that the forms of both observational and evolutionary
functions, both of which are circular in nature, are unknown and time-varying.
We model these unknown circular functions by appropriate wrapped Gaussian
processes having desirable properties.
We develop an effective Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy for implementing
our Bayesian model, by judiciously combining Gibbs sampling and
Metropolis-Hastings methods. Validation of our ideas with a simulation study
and two real bivariate circular time series data sets, where we assume one of
the variables to be unobserved, revealed very encouraging performance of our
model and methods.
We finally analyse a data consisting of directions of whale migration,
considering the unobserved ocean current direction as the latent circular
process of interest. The results that we obtain are encouraging, and the
posterior predictive distribution of the observed process correctly predicts
the observed whale movement.Comment: This significantly updated version will appear in Journal of
Statistical Theory and Practic
A Bayesian Nonparametric Markovian Model for Nonstationary Time Series
Stationary time series models built from parametric distributions are, in
general, limited in scope due to the assumptions imposed on the residual
distribution and autoregression relationship. We present a modeling approach
for univariate time series data, which makes no assumptions of stationarity,
and can accommodate complex dynamics and capture nonstandard distributions. The
model for the transition density arises from the conditional distribution
implied by a Bayesian nonparametric mixture of bivariate normals. This implies
a flexible autoregressive form for the conditional transition density, defining
a time-homogeneous, nonstationary, Markovian model for real-valued data indexed
in discrete-time. To obtain a more computationally tractable algorithm for
posterior inference, we utilize a square-root-free Cholesky decomposition of
the mixture kernel covariance matrix. Results from simulated data suggest the
model is able to recover challenging transition and predictive densities. We
also illustrate the model on time intervals between eruptions of the Old
Faithful geyser. Extensions to accommodate higher order structure and to
develop a state-space model are also discussed
Scalable Bayesian nonparametric regression via a Plackett-Luce model for conditional ranks
We present a novel Bayesian nonparametric regression model for covariates X
and continuous, real response variable Y. The model is parametrized in terms of
marginal distributions for Y and X and a regression function which tunes the
stochastic ordering of the conditional distributions F(y|x). By adopting an
approximate composite likelihood approach, we show that the resulting posterior
inference can be decoupled for the separate components of the model. This
procedure can scale to very large datasets and allows for the use of standard,
existing, software from Bayesian nonparametric density estimation and
Plackett-Luce ranking estimation to be applied. As an illustration, we show an
application of our approach to a US Census dataset, with over 1,300,000 data
points and more than 100 covariates
Functional Regression
Functional data analysis (FDA) involves the analysis of data whose ideal
units of observation are functions defined on some continuous domain, and the
observed data consist of a sample of functions taken from some population,
sampled on a discrete grid. Ramsay and Silverman's 1997 textbook sparked the
development of this field, which has accelerated in the past 10 years to become
one of the fastest growing areas of statistics, fueled by the growing number of
applications yielding this type of data. One unique characteristic of FDA is
the need to combine information both across and within functions, which Ramsay
and Silverman called replication and regularization, respectively. This article
will focus on functional regression, the area of FDA that has received the most
attention in applications and methodological development. First will be an
introduction to basis functions, key building blocks for regularization in
functional regression methods, followed by an overview of functional regression
methods, split into three types: [1] functional predictor regression
(scalar-on-function), [2] functional response regression (function-on-scalar)
and [3] function-on-function regression. For each, the role of replication and
regularization will be discussed and the methodological development described
in a roughly chronological manner, at times deviating from the historical
timeline to group together similar methods. The primary focus is on modeling
and methodology, highlighting the modeling structures that have been developed
and the various regularization approaches employed. At the end is a brief
discussion describing potential areas of future development in this field
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