China's energy consumption in the building sector: A Statistical Yearbook-Energy Balance Sheet based splitting method

China's energy consumption in the building sector (BEC) is not counted as a separate type of energy consumption, but divided and mixed in other sectors in China's statistical system. This led to the lack of historical data on China's BEC. Moreover, previous researches' shortages such as unsystematic research on BEC, various estimation methods with complex calculation process, and difficulties in data acquisition resulted in “heterogeneous” of current BEC in China. Aiming to these deficiencies, this study proposes a set of China building energy consumption calculation method (CBECM) by splitting out the building related energy consumption mixed in other sectors in the composition of China Statistical Yearbook-Energy Balance Sheet. Then, China's BEC from 2000 to 2014 are estimated using CBECM and compared with other studies. Results show that, from 2000 to 2014, China's BEC increased 1.7 times, rising from 301 to 814 million tons of standard coal consumed, with the BEC percentage of total energy consumption stayed relatively stable between 17.7% and 20.3%. By comparison, we find that our results are reliable and the CBECM has the following advantages over other methods: data source is authoritative, calculation process is concise, and it is easy to obtain time series data on BEC etc. The CBECM is particularly suitable for the provincial government to calculate the local BEC, even in the circumstance with statistical yearbook available only

Essays on endogenous technical change in climate policy analysis

This thesis consists of four papers studying endogenous technical change (TC) in climate policy analysis. The first paper provides a conceptual framework of analyzing the mechanism through which TC can be induced by climate mitigation policies. The second paper develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) numerical model to quantitatively analyze the effect of endogenous TC on the timing and cost of carbon abatements. The third paper develops a multi-region modelling framework to examine the mechanism of international technology diffusion and its effect on domestic carbon savings. The fourth paper analyzes the mechanism of international technology coordination resulting from reciprocal cross-nation knowledge spillovers and its effect on global climate governance. The first paper, "Revisiting the mechanism of endogenous technical change for climate policy analysis", aims to reconcile the diverging specifications of endogenous TC in existing climate policy modeling literature. Drawing on the theory of R&D-induced TC, I provide a generalized framework to analyze the mechanism through which TC can be induced by climate mitigation policies. The second paper, "Can technological innovation help China take on its climate responsibility? A computable general equilibrium analysis", examines the effectiveness of China's indigenous R&D and technological innovation to cut its carbon emissions. The mechanism of endogenous TC is incorporated into a CGE numerical model. R&D investment and knowledge creation is modeled as the endogenous behavior of profit-seeking private producers. The accumulated stocks of productive knowledge are applied in a production process to induce the rate and bias of production TC. The third paper, "Can China harness globalization to reap domestic carbon savings? Modelling international technology diffusion in a multi-region framework", aims to examine the effect of globalization, particularly international technology diffusion, on reducing China's domestic carbon emissions. The single-country CGE model is extended into a multi-region framework, where both indigenous R&D and foreign technology diffusion are explicitly considered as two sources of endogenous TC for domestic carbon savings. The model systematically describes foreign technology diffusion through three diffusion channels of trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) and disembodied knowledge spillovers, with an elaborate treatment of local knowledge absorptive capacity. The fourth paper, "International knowledge spillover and technology externality: Why multilateral R&D coordination matter for global climate governance", investigates the mechanism of international technology cooperation and its effect on lowering global climate mitigation cost, with an aim of exploring the potentials of complementing international emission-based agreements with technology cooperation in the post-2012 climate regime. For that purpose, this paper firstly presents an analytical framework that describes how the mechanism of international R&D coordination can work for climate change mitigation. This mechanism is then quantitatively examined in a multi-region global numerical model that explicitly considers multilateral knowledge spillovers and resulting technology externality for global climate governance

Consumption-Based Adjustment of China's Emissions-Intensity Targets: An Analysis of its Potential Economic Effects

China’s Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011–2015) aims to achieve a national carbon intensity reduction of 17% through differentiated targets at the provincial level. Allocating the national target among China’s provinces is complicated by the fact that more than half of China’s national carbon emissions are embodied in interprovincial trade, with the relatively developed eastern provinces relying on the central and western provinces for energy-intensive imports. This study develops a consistent methodology to adjust regional emissions-intensity targets for trade-related emissions transfers and assesses its economic effects on China's provinces using a regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy. This study finds that in 2007 China's eastern provinces outsource 14% of their territorial emissions to the central and western provinces. Adjusting the provincial targets for those emissions transfers increases the reduction burden for the eastern provinces by 60%, while alleviating the burden for the central and western provinces by 50% each. The CGE analysis indicates that this adjustment could double China's national welfare loss compared to the homogenous and politics-based distribution of reduction targets. A shared-responsibility approach that balances production-based and consumption-based emissions responsibilities is found to alleviate those unbalancing effects and lead to a more equal distribution of economic burden among China's provinces.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial support for this work provided by the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change through a consortium of industrial sponsors and Federal grants, and by the AXA Research Fund which is supporting Marco Springmann's doctoral research. We further thank Eni S.p.A., ICF International, Shell International Limited, and the French Development Agency (AFD), founding sponsors of the China Energy and Climate Project. We also grateful for support provided by the Social Science Key Research Program from National Social Science Foundation, China of Grant No. 09&ZD029 and by Rio Tinto China. We would further like to thank John Reilly, Sergey Paltsev, Henry Jacoby and Audrey Resutek for helpful comments, discussion and edits

Energy and emissions : local and global effects of the rise of China and India

Part 1 of the paper reviews recent trends in fossil fuel use and associated externalities. It also argues that the recent run-up in international oil prices reflects growing concerns about supply constraints associated with declining spare capacity in OPEC, refining bottlenecks, and geopolitical uncertainties rather than growing incremental use of oil by China and India. Part 2 compares two business as usual scenarios with a set of alternate scenarios based on policy interventions on the demand for or supply of energy and different assumptions about rigidities in domestic and international energy markets. The results suggest that energy externalities are likely to worsen significantly if there is no shift in China's and India's energy strategies. High energy demand from China and India could constrain some developing countries'growth through higher prices on international energy markets, but for others the"growth retarding"effects of higher energy prices are partially or fully offset by the"growth stimulating"effects of the larger markets in China and India. Given that there are many inefficiencies in the energy system in both China and India, there is an opportunity to reduce energy growth without adversely affecting GDPgrowth. The cost of a decarbonizing energy strategy will be higher for China and India than a fossil fuel-based strategy, but the net present value of delaying the shift will be higher than acting now. The less fossil fuel dependent alternative strategies provide additional dividends in terms of energy security.Energy Production and Transportation,Environment and Energy Efficiency,Energy and Environment,Energy Demand,Transport Economics Policy&Planning

China’s Factor in Recent Global Commodity Price and Shipping Freight Volatilities

This paper attempts an investigation on the impact of Chinas factor on the global commodity and ocean shipping freight volatilities in recent years. It measures Chinas contribution to the incremental demand growth for selected bulk commodities and ocean shipping in the world. Chinas impact on the price volatilities is statistically analyzed through a conventional econometric framework.the world commodity markets, global ocean shipping freights

Baseline projections of energy and emissions in Asia

open3Blanford, Geoffrey J; Rose, Steven K.; Tavoni, MassimoBlanford, Geoffrey J; Rose, Steven K.; Tavoni, Massim

Dynamic Activity Analysis Model Based Win-Win Development Forecasting Under the Environmental Regulation in China

Porter Hypothesis states that environmental regulation may lead to win-win opportunities, that is, improve the productivity and reduce the undesirable output simultaneously. Based on directional distance function, this paper proposes a novel dynamic activity analysis model to forecast the possibilities of win-win development in Chinese Industry between 2009 and 2049. The evidence reveals that the appropriate energy-saving and emission-abating regulation will result in both the improvement in net growth of potential output and the steadily increasing growth of total factor productivity. This favors Porter Hypothesis.Dynamic Activity Analysis Model, Energy-Saving and Emission-Abating, Environmental Regulation, Win-Win Development

Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometrics study

Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has declined dramatically, by about 70%, in spite of increases in energy consumption. Is this just a coincidence? Or does a systematic relationship exist between energy prices and energy intensity? In this study, we examine whether and how China's energy price changes affect its energy intensity trend during 1980-2002 at a macro level. We conduct the research by using two complementary economic models: the input-output-based structural decomposition analysis (SDA) and econometric regression models and by using a decomposition method of own-price elasticity of energy intensity. Findings include a negative own-price elasticity of energy intensity, a price-inducement effect on energy efficiency improvement, and a greater sensitivity (in terms of the reaction of energy intensity towards changes in energy prices) of the industry sector, compared to the overall economy.(cont.) Analysts can use these results as a starting point for China's energy and carbon emission forecasts, which they traditionally conduct in China without accounting for energy-intensity changes. In addition, policy implications may initiate new thinking about energy policies that are needed to conserve China's energy resources and reduce carbon emissions

International oil price’s impacts on carbon emission in China’s transportation industry

Purpose: This paper analyses the impact mechanism of international oil price on the industrial carbon emission, and uses the partial least squares regression model to study international oil price’s impact on carbon emissions in China’s transportation industry. Design/methodology/approach: This paper chooses five independent variables of GDP, international oil price, private car population, passenger and freight transportation volume as impact factors to investigate industrial carbon emissions, the paper also analyses the impact mechanism of international oil price on the industrial carbon emission, and finally the paper uses the partial least squares regression model to study international oil price’s impact on carbon emissions in China’s transportation industry. With the independent variables’ historical data from 1994 to 2009 as a sample, the fitting of the industry carbon emissions is satisfying. And based on the data of 2011, the paper maintains the private car owning, passenger and freight transportation volume to study international oil prices’ impact on the industry carbon emissions at different levels of GDP. Findings: The results show that: with the same GDP growth, the industry carbon emissions increase with the rise in international oil prices, and vice versa, the industry carbon emissions decrease; and lastly when GDP increases to a certain extent, in both cases of international oil prices’ rise or fall, the industry carbon emissions will go up, and the industry carbon emissions increase even faster while the energy prices are rising. Practical implications: Limit the growth in private-vehicle ownership, change China's transport sector within the next short-term in the structure of energy consumption and put forward China's new energy, alternative energy sources and renewable energy application so as to weaken the dependence on international oil, and indirectly slowdown China's GDP growth rate, which are all possible solutions to reduce China's transportation industry carbon emission. Originality/value: The paper presents a method to study international oil prices’ impact on the industry carbon emissions at different levels of GDP; and draws some corresponding proposals on industry carbon emission reductionPeer Reviewe

Financial Development, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from ARDL Approach for Pakistan

The paper explores the existence of a long run equilibrium relationship among CO2 emissions, financial development, economic growth, energy consumption, and population growth in Pakistan. ARDL bounds testing approach to cointegration is implemented to the data for 1974-2009. The results confirm a long run relation among these variables. Financial development appears to help reduce CO2 emissions. The main contributors to CO2 emissions however are: economic growth, population growth and energy consumption. Our results also lend support to the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Pakistan. Based on the findings we argue that policy focus on financial development might be helpful in reducing environmental degradation.Financial Development, CO2 Emissions, Cointegration