On Cognitive Preferences and the Plausibility of Rule-based Models

It is conventional wisdom in machine learning and data mining that logical models such as rule sets are more interpretable than other models, and that among such rule-based models, simpler models are more interpretable than more complex ones. In this position paper, we question this latter assumption by focusing on one particular aspect of interpretability, namely the plausibility of models. Roughly speaking, we equate the plausibility of a model with the likeliness that a user accepts it as an explanation for a prediction. In particular, we argue that, all other things being equal, longer explanations may be more convincing than shorter ones, and that the predominant bias for shorter models, which is typically necessary for learning powerful discriminative models, may not be suitable when it comes to user acceptance of the learned models. To that end, we first recapitulate evidence for and against this postulate, and then report the results of an evaluation in a crowd-sourcing study based on about 3.000 judgments. The results do not reveal a strong preference for simple rules, whereas we can observe a weak preference for longer rules in some domains. We then relate these results to well-known cognitive biases such as the conjunction fallacy, the representative heuristic, or the recogition heuristic, and investigate their relation to rule length and plausibility.Comment: V4: Another rewrite of section on interpretability to clarify focus on plausibility and relation to interpretability, comprehensibility, and justifiabilit

Guided Interaction Exploration in Artifact-centric Process Models

Artifact-centric process models aim to describe complex processes as a collection of interacting artifacts. Recent development in process mining allow for the discovery of such models. However, the focus is often on the representation of the individual artifacts rather than their interactions. Based on event data we can automatically discover composite state machines representing artifact-centric processes. Moreover, we provide ways of visualizing and quantifying interactions among different artifacts. For example, we are able to highlight strongly correlated behaviours in different artifacts. The approach has been fully implemented as a ProM plug-in; the CSM Miner provides an interactive artifact-centric process discovery tool focussing on interactions. The approach has been evaluated using real life data sets, including the personal loan and overdraft process of a Dutch financial institution.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, to be published in proceedings of the 19th IEEE Conference on Business Informatics, CBI 201