Minimax Structured Normal Means Inference

We provide a unified treatment of a broad class of noisy structure recovery problems, known as structured normal means problems. In this setting, the goal is to identify, from a finite collection of Gaussian distributions with different means, the distribution that produced some observed data. Recent work has studied several special cases including sparse vectors, biclusters, and graph-based structures. We establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the minimax probability of error for any structured normal means problem, and we derive an optimality certificate for the maximum likelihood estimator, which can be applied to many instantiations. We also consider an experimental design setting, where we generalize our minimax bounds and derive an algorithm for computing a design strategy with a certain optimality property. We show that our results give tight minimax bounds for many structure recovery problems and consider some consequences for interactive sampling

Minimax Estimation of Nonregular Parameters and Discontinuity in Minimax Risk

When a parameter of interest is nondifferentiable in the probability, the existing theory of semiparametric efficient estimation is not applicable, as it does not have an influence function. Song (2014) recently developed a local asymptotic minimax estimation theory for a parameter that is a nondifferentiable transform of a regular parameter, where the nondifferentiable transform is a composite map of a continuous piecewise linear map with a single kink point and a translation-scale equivariant map. The contribution of this paper is two fold. First, this paper extends the local asymptotic minimax theory to nondifferentiable transforms that are a composite map of a Lipschitz continuous map having a finite set of nondifferentiability points and a translation-scale equivariant map. Second, this paper investigates the discontinuity of the local asymptotic minimax risk in the true probability and shows that the proposed estimator remains to be optimal even when the risk is locally robustified not only over the scores at the true probability, but also over the true probability itself. However, the local robustification does not resolve the issue of discontinuity in the local asymptotic minimax risk

Sensitivity Analysis for Multiple Comparisons in Matched Observational Studies through Quadratically Constrained Linear Programming

A sensitivity analysis in an observational study assesses the robustness of significant findings to unmeasured confounding. While sensitivity analyses in matched observational studies have been well addressed when there is a single outcome variable, accounting for multiple comparisons through the existing methods yields overly conservative results when there are multiple outcome variables of interest. This stems from the fact that unmeasured confounding cannot affect the probability of assignment to treatment differently depending on the outcome being analyzed. Existing methods allow this to occur by combining the results of individual sensitivity analyses to assess whether at least one hypothesis is significant, which in turn results in an overly pessimistic assessment of a study's sensitivity to unobserved biases. By solving a quadratically constrained linear program, we are able to perform a sensitivity analysis while enforcing that unmeasured confounding must have the same impact on the treatment assignment probabilities across outcomes for each individual in the study. We show that this allows for uniform improvements in the power of a sensitivity analysis not only for testing the overall null of no effect, but also for null hypotheses on \textit{specific} outcome variables while strongly controlling the familywise error rate. We illustrate our method through an observational study on the effect of smoking on naphthalene exposure

Shrinkage Confidence Procedures

The possibility of improving on the usual multivariate normal confidence was first discussed in Stein (1962). Using the ideas of shrinkage, through Bayesian and empirical Bayesian arguments, domination results, both analytic and numerical, have been obtained. Here we trace some of the developments in confidence set estimation.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-STS319 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org